US SEN 2020: Which GOP Senate seats are the most vulnerable?

[Greedo punched first]

GOP Senate seats that have at least a non-zero chance to flip:
Joni Ernst
Thom Tillis
David Perdue (possibly retires)
John Cornyn (possibly retires)
Cory Gardner
Steve Daines (Steve Bullock might run)
Susan Collins (possibly retires)
Shelley Moore Capito (if Jim Justice runs)
Dan Sullivan
Pat Roberts (likely retires)

[Greedo punched first]

What would happen in the unlikely scenario Moore Capito retires?

[Greedo punched first]

What would happen in the unlikely scenario Moore Capito retires?

Republican hold either way, West Virginia is too Republican to support a non incumbent Democrat in a Senate race.

What about Jim Justice? WV voted for a non-incumbent Democratic governor in 2016, where Trump won every county. Would Justice lose to a weak candidate like John Raese?

[Greedo punched first]

Everyone tends to completely dismiss TX... but I think Cruz is definitely in danger if Joaquin Castro decides to run.  TX has low off-year turn out, Is now a Minority- Majority state (and such  a high profile Mexican-American candidate would motivate turnout), and Cruz is particularly divisive.

So I say TX (in addition to NV & CO) ... and 2 in Puerto Rico if they achieve Statehood!

I just realized the post was asking about 2020... not 2018...

regarding 2020 predictions...

Dem win/ Lean Dem
Thom Tillis: Tillis 100% loses to state senator Jeff Jackson
Cory Gardner: Likely Dem
Dan Sullivan: I could see a Dem winning Alaska... leans Dem

Toss Up
David Perdue: Dems could win with the right candidate.... Toss Up
Shelley Moore Capito (if Jim Justice runs): Not sure... so Toss-up?
Steve Daines (Steve Bullock might run)Not sure... so Toss-up?

Repub win/ Lean Repub
Joni Ernst: Ernst will be safely re-elected
John Cornyn: This seat will be safely Repub (Dem best chance in TX is 2018 Joaquin Castro vs Cruz)
Pat Roberts (likely retires): Kansas will stay Republican
Susan Collins (possibly retires): Collins Stays & easily wins

Lean D
Cory Gardner

Tossup
Steve Daines: if Steve Bullock runs
Shelley Moore Capito: if Jim Justice runs
ME: if Collins retires
Thom Tillis

Lean R
Joni Ernst
Dan Sullivan
David Perdue
TX: If Cornyn Retires
Steve Daines: If Bullock Doesn't run

Safe R
Shelley Moore Capito: If Justice doesn't run
TX: If Cornyn runs
ME: If Collins runs
Pat Roberts

[Greedo punched first]

Everyone tends to completely dismiss TX... but I think Cruz is definitely in danger if Joaquin Castro decides to run.  TX has low off-year turn out, Is now a Minority- Majority state (and such  a high profile Mexican-American candidate would motivate turnout), and Cruz is particularly divisive.

So I say TX (in addition to NV & CO) ... and 2 in Puerto Rico if they achieve Statehood!

Cruz's seat is not up that year.

Joaquin Castro might have a chance if Cornyn retires.