Rust Belt/Appalachian House Races Megathread

[KingSweden]

What's the Dem field like in Michigan's 1st? I find that area really interesting.

A military officer who will write himself onto the ballot due to a signature snafu

[Sestak]

Yeah, no. I do sometimes support #centristmemes in primaries for ideological diversity, but Morganelli is...no. Just no.

And also we have enough centrists/moderates in the House caucus. And we still will next year.

[Oryxslayer]

Something else of course to be taken into account is that Morganelli is to the Lehigh Valley like Tim Holden used to be for Schuylkill. Insanely popular in his seat, but not to liked outside the region for his rightish views. I have a hard time seeing Moganelli loose.

My response in another thread when Morganelli came up. I don't like the guy as well...but he will win easily.

[BuckeyeNut]

There were more Democratic coters in the primary for OH-07 than there were in the primary for OH-01. 👀

[Ohioguy29]

There were more Democratic coters in the primary for OH-07 than there were in the primary for OH-01. 👀

I mean, Aftab was running unopposed and that could've played a role. I usually don't bother filling out every bubble on my ballot, I just vote in races where there's more than one choice. I did vote for Aftab because I thought of all the people on political forums who freak out about primary vote totals lol.

In positive news, Hamilton County had more Democratic primary voters than GOP primary voters for the first time since Jerry Springer ran for governor! Don't know how things were in Warren County in comparison to usual (obviously they were majority GOP.)

[Ohioguy29]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

I don't know anything about her, but Anthony Gonzales is a strong opponent so Palmer will likely get crushed in this pretty republican district.

[Ohioguy29]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

I don't know anything about her, but Anthony Gonzales is a strong opponent so Palmer will likely get crushed in this pretty republican district.

Yeah, Dems dropped the ball on candidate recruitment here.

[KingSweden]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

It’ll be very difficult to take out Anthony Gonzalez. Could have had a shot against Hagan

[Ohioguy29]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

It’ll be very difficult to take out Anthony Gonzalez. Could have had a shot against Hagan

Hagan would've been difficult to beat too, tbh. But a young, good looking football star? The Ohio GOP did good work there.

[BuckeyeNut]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

It’ll be very difficult to take out Anthony Gonzalez. Could have had a shot against Hagan

Hagan would've been difficult to beat too, tbh. But a young, good looking football star? The Ohio GOP did good work there.

Hagan would have made the race Lean D, closer to Tossup under the right circumstances. The problem is  ot only did the ORP have a recruitment masterstroke, ODP basically passed on the seat. I liked Goodrich, he had a good profile, but he got in too late and in a field of mostly no name men, the no name woman easily won. I’m honestly impressed Goodrich came as close as he did.

[Oryxslayer]

What an odd group to put together.

It's odd but it isn't at the same time. Rural central/western Pennsylvania and rural eastern Ohio have a lot in common with West Virginia and Kentucky. Columbus and the Philadelphia area definitely do not, however.

I wouldn't have included Michigan, fwiw. That strikes me as more of an overtly Midwestern state.

If we're trying to get as much of the US into small groups as possible (5ish) then I came up with this:

West "Coast" - CA/OR/WA/AK/HI
Southwest - AZ/UT/NV/CO/NM
Mountain West - ID/MT/WY/ND/SD
Great Plains - TX/KS/OK/NE
Midwest Central - MN/IA/WI/IL/MO
Midwest Eastern - MI/IN/KY/OH/WV
Southern Dixie - LA/MS/AL/TN/AR
Sun Belt - FL/GA/SC/NC/VA
East Coast - MD/NY/NJ/DE/PA
New England - ME/NH/VT/CT/MA/RI

Your dividing them up by Geography, Not by the number of house seats - which is why the initial groupings make sense, even though they are a little weird.

[Ohioguy29]

How do people feel about Susan Palmer in OH-16? I was vaguely supportive of Goodrich there but I don't have a strong opinion on Palmer either way.

It’ll be very difficult to take out Anthony Gonzalez. Could have had a shot against Hagan

Hagan would've been difficult to beat too, tbh. But a young, good looking football star? The Ohio GOP did good work there.

Hagan would have made the race Lean D, closer to Tossup under the right circumstances. The problem is  ot only did the ORP have a recruitment masterstroke, ODP basically passed on the seat. I liked Goodrich, he had a good profile, but he got in too late and in a field of mostly no name men, the no name woman easily won. I’m honestly impressed Goodrich came as close as he did.

Therein lies the problem. Hagan isn't a super strong candidate, but in comparison to the Dems we have she is. I have no idea why ODP didn't try here, this was a one time opportunity and they just let it slip. That's the classic ODP way though.