My Senatorial Predictions
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Author Topic: My Senatorial Predictions  (Read 2799 times)
Rjjr77
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2017, 08:53:14 AM »


Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.
She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

Can we just go with the safe option and pick Wagner?

Wagner risks the base staying home

I think the base may come out breathing fire to vote for anyone, even that baby rhino from the St. Louis zoo. The republicans are coming to gut McCaskill this year. I'd be shocked for her to make it through this time. She's gotten lucky twice now, won't happen a third
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2017, 05:41:32 PM »


Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.
She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

Can we just go with the safe option and pick Wagner?

Wagner risks the base staying home

I think the base may come out breathing fire to vote for anyone, even that baby rhino from the St. Louis zoo. The republicans are coming to gut McCaskill this year. I'd be shocked for her to make it through this time. She's gotten lucky twice now, won't happen a third

You are aware that baby rhino is constitutional ineligible to run for US Senate, correct?
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #27 on: June 22, 2017, 05:49:13 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2017, 05:58:29 PM by Jimmie »

North Dakota: Lean D
Wisconsin: Lean to likely D
Missouri: Tilt Republican
Indiana: Lean Republican
West Virginia: Likely to solid Democrat
Montana: Tilt Democratic
Florida: Lean Democratic

are my hunches right now.  But I only did the contests I pay any attention to.

edit: I actually think McCaskill will pull it out but I made my prediction a bit more republican because I realize I may be slightly biased towards McCaskill's chances.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #28 on: June 22, 2017, 06:16:22 PM »

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.
4 current senators made that jump. 3 others went state senate to us senate, and yet a few others went to the us senate as their first elected office, or had minor local offices
Three of them (Merkley, Rubio, Tillis) were Speaker, which is different (Should have mentioned it earlier) since they're more visible and part of leadership. My point is a random State Rep. running for US Senate just looks like a random career politician screaming out ambition, while someone with no political record can run as an outsider. And I'm saying that because public discontempt for insiders/career politicians may continue, especially if they're still sick of hearing "Russia!" all the time.
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crazy jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #29 on: June 22, 2017, 07:08:19 PM »

I said my predictions right now are cautious and in many of these contests we do not have enough information and too many contradictory points.

Please stop.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #30 on: June 29, 2017, 02:39:50 AM »

Hopefully it's not too late for predictions. Maybe I'm pessimistic, but I just don't have much confidence in the Democrats' ability to win elections. I think McCaskill and Donnelly may fall, and Republicans could end up making pickups in Senate like 2002. I think Democrats could still retake the House, but simply how brutal the Senate map is and the fact that Democrats aren't good at winning elections has me worried.

Safe R:
Utah
Mississippi
Wyoming
Tennessee


Safe D:
California
Washington
Hawaii
New York
Vermont(I)
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland


Likely R:
Texas - I think there could be a perfect-storm scenario to come and wipe out Cruz, and Texas is getting bluer in each election, but I highly doubt Democrats are going to make a pickup here.

Likely D:
Maine(I) - I don't much about Maine politics, but Angus King has been elected as Governor and as Senator as a genuine Independent, not like Bernie Sanders where Democrats don't compete against him and he's basically a replacement for Democrats. I don't know enough about Maine politics and how the state votes blue in presidential years but still elects Susan Collins and seems to have 3 or 4 candidates in every gubernatorial election and hasn't actually elected a Democratic Senator since 1988. I'm going to assume King wins, but I don't really have any clues about this race.

Minnesota - Minnesota seems to be solidly blue, but Democrats don't usually win by huge margins here and Republicans can win here. (see: Norm Coleman/Tim Pawlenty 2002, Tim Pawlenty in Democratic wave 2006) But, Amy Klobuchar has won her last 2 elections in landslides and I don't see any conceivable way a Republican could beat her.

New Jersey - Apparently Menendez in embroiled in scandal and doesn't seem to be too popular, but it's New Jersey in a seemingly Democratic election for Christ's sake. I'm going to assume he(or whatever Democrat) wins, barring some miracle.

Virginia - Tim Kaine is bland and inoffensive, and Virginia is becoming increasingly blue. Ed Gillespie came close to beating Mark Warner in 2014, but even in the Republican wave year that it was Warner still ended up pulling it out. In a Democratic year in Virginia, beating Kaine seems like a very long shot.

New Mexico - I mean, Republicans can win elections here. Susana Martinez won reelection in 2014, but even then, Democrat Tom Udall won the Senate race. Like Virginia, a Republican win is an extremely long shot, but it's "Likely D" because the Democrat margins aren't always as good as in California or Hawaii.

Michigan - Yes, Trump won it in 2016, but it was by an unbelievably narrow margin and I doubt Republicans are going to actually have much of a chance here, especially in a Democratic election year. They had success in the gubernatorial contests in 2010 and 2014, but even as Rick Snyder won reelection in the Republican wave year of 2014, Democrat Gary Peters crushed it in the Senate race there. Debbie Stabenow won reelection in 2006 and 2012 in landslides, and I'm pretty confident she's going to win.


Lean R:
Arizona - I think Flake is favored to hold on to his seat,  but if he gets primaried by a Tea Party challenger like Kelli Ward or he just has a bad time in his campaign(from what I read his approval ratings aren't great, and he hasn't raised all that much money), I think Democrats have a decent shot of taking him down, but for now I'm going to give it to the Republicans.


Lean D:
West Virginia - I know it's the biggest Trump state of them all, and if Trump spends a lot of time campaigning in this race with a credible Republican challenger like Jenkins I can see Republicans winning here. It's definitely going to be competitive, but Joe Manchin seems to win all his elections in landslides and West Virginia still elected a Democratic Governor in 2016. If Joe Manchin manages to lose to the progressive primary challenger that "Justice Democrats" are supporting(not sure how serious of a challenger she is) then you can mark this seat as Safe R, but assuming Joe Manchin wins the primary, I'm going to give this race to Manchin.

North Dakota - Heitkamp won this in a presidential year in 2012 even though she wasn't a longtime incumbent and she wasn't facing an Akin/Mourdock-type opponent, so I'm going to assume she's able to win elections here, and I'm assuming 2018 is going to be a decently Democratic year. It is North Dakota, so I'm assuming it's going to be competitive, but I'm assuming Heitkamp is going to hang on here.

Montana - Jon Tester did win his 2 elections narrowly, and Montana is extremely red in presidential years. However, in the same election that Trump won the state in a landslide, Governor Steve Bullock won reelection by a decent margin. Democrats are certainly competitive here. I think a decent Republican challenger is going to make Jon Tester sweat, but I think he's going to eke it out.

Wisconsin - Trump did pull out a narrow win here and Ron Johnson did win an uphill reelection bid in 2016, and Republicans have near-supermajorities in the legislature and they have the Governorship. Wisconsin is a very tricky and polarized state, and we obviously are the state of Bob LaFollette and Joe McCarthy, and I can tell you that Tammy Baldwin and Gov. Scott Walker are not both going to win reelection. Tammy Baldwin is a huge progressive and I can see progressive economic populism winning in midwestern states such as Wisconsin, but at the same time Republicans here are good at running against "extreme liberal from Madison/Milwaukee". Baldwin won against a once-popular former Governor in Tommy Thompson in 2012 by a few points, but Thompson had to contend with a difficult primary and had to waste funds on that, and Baldwin was certainly helped by President Obama's coattails. Wisconsin isn't completely red yet and there's still hope for Democrats here, but I think it's going to be a huge goal for Republicans to take down the last surviving statewide Democrat. Her most competitive potential challenger(Sean Duffy) took his name out of the running earlier this year, and I think the national 2018 environment is going to save her.

Ohio - The state seems to be getting more and more red, and Governor John Kasich and Senator Rob Portman won reelection in 2014 and 2016 in landslides. However, Sherrod Brown defeated incumbent Mike DeWine by a pretty hefty margin in 2006 and won reelection in 2012 against Josh Mandel. Interestingly enough, Mandel looks like his most likely opponent in 2018 as well. Imo the guy kind of looks like a joke. He looks and sounds like he's 14 and he's running against the same guy he lost to six years ago. His announcement video bars some pretty obvious parallels to Trump(ie. "saying Radical Islam", "secure our borders", etc.). I think his loyalty to Trump is going to be the nail in his coffin if he's the GOP nominee in 2018. The national environment and Josh Mandel are going to likely hand Senator Brown the win.

Pennsylvania - Trump won this state narrowly, and Pat Toomey won reelection narrowly in 2016, so Republicans are certainly competitive. A credible opponent is going to give Bob Casey a run for his money, but he did defeat incumbent Rick Santorum in 2006 in a landslide, and won reelection in 2012 fairly handily. This race could end up being a nail-biter, but I'm going to give this one to Casey.

Florida - Bill Nelson won reelection in 2012 by a comfortable margin, and while Republicans have certainly had much success here, the national environment in 2018 is going to benefit Nelson and I'm going to assume he pulls it out. I think a serious challenger like Rick Scott could make it competitive, but(as I've reiterated before) Democrats are likely to have decent tailwinds in 2018, and I think that's going to give Bill Nelson the victory.


Toss-Up:
Nevada - Dean Heller is obviously going to be a top target for Democrats in 2018, and he certainly knows it. He's taking all the right steps to try and distance himself from Trump and the rest of his party, but I doubt it will be enough. I think D voters are going to be bloodthirsty and out to take down Republicans all across the board, and I think that could wipe out Heller as well. However, if he faces a lackluster challenger, and Democrats somewhat abandon this race to play defense elsewhere, and a few D voters might reward his opposition to his own party with reelection, I can see him eking out a victory here, but I think the Democrats are still favored here.

Indiana - Joe Donnelly is so unbelievably vulnerable. I'm sure Trump and Pence are going to be on the stump to try and take him out, and I can see it happening. He won in 2012 because the extremely popular Richard Lugar got taken out by a Tea Party primary challenger whose remarks about rape helped give him a win here. Even with all that, Donnelly only won with 50% of the vote with Richard Mourdock still getting 44% and the Libertarian candidate earning about 6%. Republicans won a Senate election in Indiana in 2016 against the once-very-popular Evan Bayh, and I'm sure Senator Donnelly is going to be a huge target for the GOP. If the national environment is strong and he has an alright incumbency advantage, I can see him narrowly holding on, but I can just as easily see him going down to a decent Republican opponent.

Missouri - Like with Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill is going to be insanely vulnerable. She won because of a Democratic wave in 2006 and due to Todd "legitimate rape" Akin in 2012, who SHE helped propel to victory in the Republican primary so she would have an easier time at reelection. Also like with Joe Donnelly, I can see her pulling it out if the environment is favorable enough to Democrats, but I can also see her falling to a credible Republican challenger.


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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #31 on: May 10, 2018, 11:20:51 AM »

*Bump* Updated them.
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