My Senatorial Predictions

[Heisenberg]

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

I don't think Stapleton will be the nominee, but Tester is far from safe, so a Republican pickup here is definitely possible.

ND is probably far-fetched, though.

Also... how did Mark Hurt win the GOP nomination in IN?

Agree on ND being far-fetched, and I highly doubt Stapleton and Becker will be the nominees. MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana. And what about Michigan, you forgot that.

[Heisenberg]

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.

[Heisenberg]

MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana.

Don't be silly, polarization only exists in ND and not in MT. We all know how easy it is to beat Democratic incumbents in the Dakotas, John Thune will tell you about it. MT on the other hand... it's like a totally different world once you cross the border.

Also... the presidential election results are obviously the only thing that matters.

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.

I like Becker and would not underestimate him (although he'd still face an uphill climb), but isn't he more of a Libertarian-type anyway?

I don't like Becker because his record had been mostly pro-choice prior to running for Governor in 2016, which causes me to be suspicious of him. That also hurt him at the convention IIRC. Anyway, if I were him and wanted higher office, I'd try to aim for leadership, or run for State Senate or a row office.

[Heisenberg]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.

She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

[Heisenberg]

I think Tester is vulnerable, but has a better chance than Heitkamp.

And Becker probably won't be the nominee. State House to US Senate is a massive jump, and there are better possible candidates who are far more likely to run and win.

4 current senators made that jump. 3 others went state senate to us senate, and yet a few others went to the us senate as their first elected office, or had minor local offices

Three of them (Merkley, Rubio, Tillis) were Speaker, which is different (Should have mentioned it earlier) since they're more visible and part of leadership. My point is a random State Rep. running for US Senate just looks like a random career politician screaming out ambition, while someone with no political record can run as an outsider. And I'm saying that because public discontempt for insiders/career politicians may continue, especially if they're still sick of hearing "Russia!" all the time.