My Senatorial Predictions

[jamestroll]

MT: Corey Stapleton def. Sen. Jon Tester (R pick-up)
ND: Rick Becker def. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (R pick-up)

Rubbish.

I don't think Stapleton will be the nominee, but Tester is far from safe, so a Republican pickup here is definitely possible.

ND is probably far-fetched, though.

Also... how did Mark Hurt win the GOP nomination in IN?

Agree on ND being far-fetched, and I highly doubt Stapleton and Becker will be the nominees. MT flips way before ND, Heitkamp is way more popular, and Tester is too polarizing, and should tank in support in Yellowstone County and other parts of eastern Montana. And what about Michigan, you forgot that.

Are you guys the same person? It's kinda freaky how Heisenberg always affirms everything MT Treasurer says

NO! They are not the same person! Trust me I know all to well!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jamestroll]

[...]
MO: Vicky Hartzler*
[...]

Oh, eww. Hartzler would probably be McCaskill's preferred opponent seeing as she's probably the most  conservative of all the possible candidates.

Is she hyperconservative or just a gaffe machine? According to the last National Journal ranking, Wagner was vastly more conservative than Hartzler, but admittedly the last time they published one was in 2013.

She's more of a gaffe machine. Sam Graves was also thought to be considering, but he has a ton of controversies.

Can we just go with the safe option and pick Wagner?

Wagner risks the base staying home

I think the base may come out breathing fire to vote for anyone, even that baby rhino from the St. Louis zoo. The republicans are coming to gut McCaskill this year. I'd be shocked for her to make it through this time. She's gotten lucky twice now, won't happen a third

You are aware that baby rhino is constitutional ineligible to run for US Senate, correct?

[jamestroll]

North Dakota: Lean D
Wisconsin: Lean to likely D
Missouri: Tilt Republican
Indiana: Lean Republican
West Virginia: Likely to solid Democrat
Montana: Tilt Democratic
Florida: Lean Democratic

are my hunches right now.  But I only did the contests I pay any attention to.

edit: I actually think McCaskill will pull it out but I made my prediction a bit more republican because I realize I may be slightly biased towards McCaskill's chances.

[jamestroll]

I said my predictions right now are cautious and in many of these contests we do not have enough information and too many contradictory points.

Please stop.