Which Dem has the best chance to flip AZ & FL in 2020?
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  Which Dem has the best chance to flip AZ & FL in 2020?
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Author Topic: Which Dem has the best chance to flip AZ & FL in 2020?  (Read 286 times)
SCNCmod
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« on: June 22, 2017, 07:30:50 PM »
« edited: June 22, 2017, 07:36:47 PM by SCNCmod »

NM Senator Martin Heinrich, Julian Castro, others?  I'm sure there are others ... these are the 2 that came to mind 1st...

A Note regarding AZ (The ppl that voted 3rd party- were essentially never-trump & never-hillary voters... and will likely remain never-Trump voters in 2020, at which time will vote 3rd party again, or potentially vote for a more palatable Dem.)  In AZ in 2016, If Dems increased the % of votes they got ... from Latinos that actually voted... by 3%, they would have carried the state. (ie 66% rather than 63%).

Martin Heinrich is from neighboring state (to AZ) and would likely appeal to working class AZ voters (comes from a working class background)... and would also appeal likely appeal to some working class voters in Upper Florida who voted for Trump.

Julian Castro could have "outsider with a bit of gov't experience" similar to Macron.  Also similar to Macron he is young and a good speaker/ campaigner.  Also similar to Macron (I think) he is socially liberal yet moderate when it comes to balanced budget, etc. He would likely also have increased appeal (to motivate turnout) to Mexican American's in AZ as well as Mexican American's & Puerto Rican America's in Florida.  
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2017, 08:00:51 PM »

In my opinion, any Democrat who wins nationally in 2020 is going to win Florida. it is a bellwether and Clinton only lost it by 1.2%, save for maybe Sanders, as his past as a radical would turn off Cubans big time. as for Arizona, I think any democrat who can get the same Latino turnout that Obama got in '08/'12 whilst not slipping with whites there would also flip the state. I'm not too sure about Julian Castro though, he's a bit too inexperienced IMO.
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Kamala
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2017, 08:52:22 PM »

Heinrich is very anonymous and I think also somewhat introverted.

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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2017, 08:57:24 PM »

Biden, but I think it will also depend on who between Trump or Pence (if Trump is impeached) is the Republican nominee.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2017, 09:50:20 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2017, 10:02:59 PM by SCNCmod »

In my opinion, any Democrat who wins nationally in 2020 is going to win Florida. it is a bellwether and Clinton only lost it by 1.2%, save for maybe Sanders, as his past as a radical would turn off Cubans big time. as for Arizona, I think any democrat who can get the same Latino turnout that Obama got in '08/'12 whilst not slipping with whites there would also flip the state. I'm not too sure about Julian Castro though, he's a bit too inexperienced IMO.

He is fairly inexperienced ... but he does have at least some executive experience in Public Office... and can really give a motivating speech... watch the first few mins of his DNC Conv Speech...

Castro's DNC Speech:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rinn3cJN1qo&t=67s    (At the very least... this speech is worth watching.. as an example of a message that will appeal to working class voters)
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