Austrian legislative election, 2017

[Tender Branson]

Currently undecided between the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal NEOS (60% vs. 40%).

Probably throwing a dice before the election ...

Voted for SPÖ in this poll, for now ...

[Tender Branson]

Currently undecided between the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and the liberal NEOS (60% vs. 40%).

Probably throwing a dice before the election ...

Voted for SPÖ in this poll, for now ...

I swear you've flipped between every single party Tender.

That's not entirely correct:

Since I turned 18 (the voting age was lowered to 16 later on), I have voted for a lot of different parties on the EU/federal/state and local level.

I have voted for SPÖ, ÖVP, Greens, Anders and Independents.

I have never voted for FPÖ, BZÖ and Team Stronach so far and never intend to do so.

That leaves NEOS and the Communists, for which I have never voted so far but who remain as options. Voting Communist only makes some sense in Graz.

NEOS seems like a good centrist option in this election and because they face extinction by a strong Kurz-result, even more so.

[Tender Branson]

I'd go for:

1. Team Stronach
2. ÖVP
3. NEOS or FPÖ

Why would you vote for the FDP in Germany and only rank NEOS as your 3rd choice in Austria ?

NEOS is the Austrian counterpart of the FDP. If Austria were a German state, FDP = NEOS on the ballot.

[Tender Branson]

KPÖ because f**k it.

Why would you vote for the Communists here if you voted for Hamon and PS in France ?

The SPÖ as a party is virtually like the PS, but Kern brings a slight Macron-ish touch to it ...

[Tender Branson]

KPÖ because f**k it.

I must admit from what I've read about the KPÖ they seem quite appealing. Too bad they stand literally no chance of doing anything.

That's mostly because outside Vienna, Graz and the other big cities there is virtually no "housing crisis", with people facing evictions etc.

People in the rural parts of Austria are actually well-off, having houses on their own or if they have apartments are not at risk of losing them. If you bike through most of western rural Austrian towns, you will see that houses and surroundings are very tidy. Some FPÖ-voting towns around here have very orderly, upper-middle class homes.

Not anything like the rural decay in other countries (West Virginia etc.) - and the rural population here is simply conservative and pro-Austrian, even the rural SPÖ-voting folk (many of them ended up voting for Hofer over VdB). So, no need to vote for the KPÖ outside the very large cities ...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, as DavidB said ...

Supporting a party that will have problems breaking the 0.5% in October is very bizarre.

[Tender Branson]

Greens. Van der Bellen will need a sizable majority.

VdB doesn't need anything.

Austria ≠ USA

Austria ≠ France

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP. It's time for a change. Sort of. 

Aren't you usually voting for left-wing parties, Mike88 ?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is pretty low so far ...

Where are the additional 40 posters who voted in the Germany poll ?

[Tender Branson]

Is KPÖ more mainstream or something? If not, I'm seeing some Atlas people in a whole new lght

The KPÖ has a very hands-on approach:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254431.msg5449940#msg5449940

[Tender Branson]

Funny that nobody voted for the TS so far, it looks like everyone knew they are politically bankrupt. And they OFFICIALLY are since yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ, but if the Greens or the breakaway Greens are hovering near the threshold on election day I'd strategically support them.

Preferred coalitions:
1) SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
2) SPÖ-FPÖ (my anti-Kurz reflex compels me to rank this above 3) )
3) SPÖ-ÖVP (only if SPÖ would get the chancellorship)

SPÖ-Greens-NEOS is hardly possible here. 45% is about the highest they can get.

And if Pilz runs his own left-populist "Transparency Citizen Movement", there would also be other coalition options.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ, but if the Greens or the breakaway Greens are hovering near the threshold on election day I'd strategically support them.

Preferred coalitions:
1) SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
2) SPÖ-FPÖ (my anti-Kurz reflex compels me to rank this above 3) )
3) SPÖ-ÖVP (only if SPÖ would get the chancellorship)

SPÖ-Greens-NEOS is hardly possible here. 45% is about the highest they can get.

And if Pilz runs his own left-populist "Transparency Citizen Movement", there would also be other coalition options.

So this doesn't look plausible?:

SPÖ: 56
Greens/Transparency Citizen Movement: 21
NEOS: 15

TCM-Pilz would cannibalize the SPÖ too, so it's still pretty hard for the 3 parties to get a majority. And Pilz might drag the Greens below 4% (unlikely, but possible). Even if both the Greens and the Pilz-list make it into parliament it is highly unlikely that there'll be a 4-way coalition. Too much speculation right now. Pilz might also re-consider the next weeks and not even run against the Green Party and accept that he was defeated by the delegates ...