What would be your strategy to get to 218 if you're the dccc?

[BuckeyeNut]

In reality, there are three areas of focus, ordered from most potential gains/benefit to least:

1) Midwestern and Rust Belt areas
2) Suburban areas where GOP has no business holding seats (CA, NY, NJ, etc)
3) Sunbelt and/or Southern suburban areas

The path to 218 likely picks seats from all three of these categories, but to not start with the lowest-hanging fruit possible is ridiculous. We basically have a question here that goes like this: "Do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Democrats and still do a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote GOP for President in the past election), or do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Republicans and still do to a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote Dem for President in the past election)?".

The answer seems pretty straightforward: we're not in a realignment period just yet.

A point well made. I voted for option 3, but there should be several pickups in California alone without much investing.

[The Ex-Factor]

That latest NBC/WSJ poll had the House bill at an incredible 16% approval, 48% disapproval. At that level of universal disapproval I don't think it is a losing strategy to rage against that everywhere, even in wealthy suburban districts. Especially if it passes and becomes law.

Which kinda shows that ultimately the midterms are always a reflection on the president more than anything. If Trump gets into more and more hot water over Russia and Comey, that will be the main issue. If Republicans actually pass BCRA, that will be the main issue of 2018.

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/TODAY/z_Creative/17255%20NBCWSJJunePoll.pdf

[JohnCA246]

I would say in this order: #1 where there are weak incumbents (as measured by 2016), #2 where there are no incumbents, #3 swing counties (probably Midwest and Northeast oriented) , #4 anti-Trump counties (affluent often sunbelt areas). 

I wouldn't be surprised if some GOP-held districts a bit to the left of GA-06 with incumbents fall, but it seems that the toughest sell in 2018 will be getting lifelong anti-Trump GOP voters to vote against their local rep whom they have voted for many times prior. In 2017 off year elections, it was a bit easier to get large swings because they weren't incumbents. I imagine it would be easier to target anti-Hillary Trump voters who have voted for both GOP and Dem candidates in the past.