What would be your strategy to get to 218 if you're the dccc?

[GlobeSoc]

Personally, I lean toward option 3, and I think it will be the dnc strategy. They are racking up decent recruits in a variety of rural seats like Ojeda in WV-03, while the russia issue is really the only opening in the sunbelt, as Trump is being contained from passing any populist policy that could alienate them. As GA-06, shows, the current situation is not one where the sunbelt gets the dccc to the majority on its own. On the other hand, I can imagine a healthcare backlash creating a big opening in places like IA-01 that could almost get them over the line, but the dems do need to pick up a few California districts that already vote overwhelmingly dem on the presidential level to get the 218th seat.

edit: On option 2, it should read "Appeal to rustbelters and rural areas by focusing on healthcare and general economic populism."

[Sbane]

Write in option: Appeal to both rustbelters AND sunbelters by focusing on Healthcare and economic issues.

[GlobeSoc]

Write in option: Appeal to both rustbelters AND sunbelters by focusing on Healthcare and economic issues.

Fair enough, but what makes you believe that sunbelters would be receptive?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Both though the true path runs through Cali, NY, and NJ purging reps

[Sbane]

Write in option: Appeal to both rustbelters AND sunbelters by focusing on Healthcare and economic issues.

Fair enough, but what makes you believe that sunbelters would be receptive?

Depends on the district. The same healthcare message that appeals to populist Midwestern voters will also appeal to populist Hispanic voters.

[Cactus Jack]

I maintain that they should really hunker down in Arizona, but friendly districts in states like Kansas and Nebraska are most likely the way forward. James Thompson's near miss earlier this year should be made a model for future campaigns in similar districts.

[TheSaint250]

Option 4. Dems have been aiming for the Sun Belt, so it is important to keep the strategy up while still attempting to win back the Rust Belt voters.  Simply going only for SB voters allows for GOP to accelerate the "RB/Northern Strategy," and only going for RB voters allows for GOP to keep CA GOPers and others along the region in office.

[Kingpoleon]

Localize the races. Local, local, local. Put Simon Roseburg, Pete Buttigieg, and James Carville in an executive committee to come up with strategies.

As for specific policies? Emphasize the Sun Belt, but don't turn it into a campaign about Russia and Trump. Poll what issues do well.

[Yank2133]

Appeal to both and run on healthcare and corruption.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Third option. Obama-Trump voters are (according to studies carried out by Democratic officials) primarily working class whites situated in the Midwest. Romney-Clinton voters are usually more affluent (a study found that the largest Romney-Clinton swings came from homes that had a much higher median home price than the national average). These voters tend to be lifelong R's who voted republican downballot and just didn't like Trump in particular.

I wouldn't ignore the sunbelt (the growth of minorities and to a lesser extent young liberals suggests that it's a future Democratic stronghold) but the trends just aren't quite there yet when compared to reclaiming places in the Midwest.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Third option, but Trump and #Russiagate doesn't appeal to any sunbelters I know. And liberal Twitter denizens aren't a majority in any swing CD that I know of.

[Cactus Jack]

Localize the races. Local, local, local. Put Simon Roseburg, Pete Buttigieg, and James Carville in an executive committee to come up with strategies.

As for specific policies? Emphasize the Sun Belt, but don't turn it into a campaign about Russia and Trump. Poll what issues do well.

Yeah, pretty much this. Run on relevant district issues and let Trump's mouth-frothing stupidity speak for itself.

[Xing]

Option 3. While GA-06 was always going to be a bit of a stretch, it should give anyone saying that the future of the Democratic Party runs through the suburbs and the sun belt pause.

[morgieb]

The worry with Option 3 is that there just aren't WWC Obama/Trump seats that are winnable. IA-01 is the only one that's true low-hanging fruit in my eyes, though several of course are winnable.

Realistically a House majority has to make some significant inroads through the suburbs.

[Beet]

Sure sunbelters will go for a rust belt message
https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona_Minimum_Wage_and_Paid_Time_Off,_Proposition_206_(2016)

[smoltchanov]

Option 3, naturally...

[Confused Democrat]

Identify the most vulnerable Republican districts in the country, recruit the best possible challengers, cater their campaigns to their district's local issues while at the same time tying in an overarching national message that's critical of Trump and heavily focused on shackling Republicans to healthcare if they manage to get this monstrosity of a "healthcare" bill onto the President's desk.

If I had to choose from the options you listed, I would say appeal to both, but emphasize the rust belt. Mainly because there are more vulnerable Republican districts in the rust belt.

[Tekken_Guy]

Go for the sunbelt. The DCCC should focus on the future, not the past. The main "rust-belt" message should be on Trumpcare, of course, but honestly, the SunBelt is the future of the party.

[RINO Tom]

The worry with Option 3 is that there just aren't WWC Obama/Trump seats that are winnable. IA-01 is the only one that's true low-hanging fruit in my eyes, though several of course are winnable.

Realistically a House majority has to make some significant inroads through the suburbs.

I think the idea is those "WWC districts" were voting Democratic about as recently as these "suburban" districts were voting VERY solidly Republican, so maybe the most recent results aren't telling the whole story?

[Kingpoleon]

Localize the races. Local, local, local. Put Simon Roseburg, Pete Buttigieg, and James Carville in an executive committee to come up with strategies.

As for specific policies? Emphasize the Sun Belt, but don't turn it into a campaign about Russia and Trump. Poll what issues do well.

Yeah, pretty much this. Run on relevant district issues and let Trump's mouth-frothing stupidity speak for itself.

Hillary's campaign wasn't about issues, and so she came across as a hypocrite when she and her campaign and surrogates repeatedly assaulted Trump, allowing O'Malley to go around supporting her and calling Trump a fascist.

[Adam Griffin]

In reality, there are three areas of focus, ordered from most potential gains/benefit to least:

1) Midwestern and Rust Belt areas
2) Suburban areas where GOP has no business holding seats (CA, NY, NJ, etc)
3) Sunbelt and/or Southern suburban areas

The path to 218 likely picks seats from all three of these categories, but to not start with the lowest-hanging fruit possible is ridiculous. We basically have a question here that goes like this: "Do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Democrats and still do a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote GOP for President in the past election), or do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Republicans and still do to a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote Dem for President in the past election)?".

The answer seems pretty straightforward: we're not in a realignment period just yet.

[Hoosier_Nick]

In reality, there are three areas of focus, ordered from most potential gains/benefit to least:

1) Midwestern and Rust Belt areas
2) Suburban areas where GOP has no business holding seats (CA, NY, NJ, etc)
3) Sunbelt and/or Southern suburban areas

The path to 218 likely picks seats from all three of these categories, but to not start with the lowest-hanging fruit possible is ridiculous. We basically have a question here that goes like this: "Do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Democrats and still do a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote GOP for President in the past election), or do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Republicans and still do to a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote Dem for President in the past election)?".

The answer seems pretty straightforward: we're not in a realignment period just yet.

[RINO Tom]

Not sure why Republicans have "no business" winning places in NY, CA and NJ that, ya know, voted those Republicans in!  Not every Republican is a Trumpist (vast majority aren't), and there are still GOP areas in blue states, oftentimes suburban.  Exurbs have taken on the same feel that mid-Twentieth Century suburbs had (new, Whiter, wealthier), and they're voting accordingly Republican, just about everywhere.

[morgieb]

In reality, there are three areas of focus, ordered from most potential gains/benefit to least:

1) Midwestern and Rust Belt areas
2) Suburban areas where GOP has no business holding seats (CA, NY, NJ, etc)
3) Sunbelt and/or Southern suburban areas

The path to 218 likely picks seats from all three of these categories, but to not start with the lowest-hanging fruit possible is ridiculous. We basically have a question here that goes like this: "Do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Democrats and still do a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote GOP for President in the past election), or do we go after the areas where voters have always supported Republicans and still do to a large degree down-ballot (but happened to vote Dem for President in the past election)?".

The answer seems pretty straightforward: we're not in a realignment period just yet.

Thing is that's the thing. Most of those sorts of districts still have Democratic Congresspeople.

[I’m not Stu]

Appeal to both, but emphasize Rust Belt. Third party candidates may have spoiled some races. Identity politics loses working class whites. Focus on issues like healthcare, trade, and Social Security. Don't call everyone bigoted (whether they are or not) because it turns off non-SJW voters. While In the Sun Belt, try to increase minority turnout (which is typically very low) in states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. Texas had a very strong Democratic trend, where Trump only won by single digits. Try to help disadvantaged voters obtain proper ID for voting.