No way this would have been a head-to-head contest since President Truman was unacceptable to Southern Democrats for his pro-Civil-Rights stances.
General Dwight D. Eisenhower (R-PA)/Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA): 371 EV. (52.35%)
President Harry S. Truman (D-MO)/Vice President Alben Barkley (D-KY): 115 EV. (43.71%)
Senator Strom Thurmond (Dixie-SC)/Admiral John G. Vrommelin (Dixie-AL): 45 EV. (3.07%)
I gave Truman the 11 Southern States, plus OK, WV, KY, and MO. Everything else to Eisenhower.
I disagree with your assessment of the South. After 1948, there was a reconciliation of sorts, and most of the Dixiecrats rejoined the Democratic Party. There was a reason for this; the only states that the Thurmond-Wright ticket carried in 1948 were the states where the DEMOCRATIC electors were pledged to Thurmond and Wright. The issues that brought Southern Democrats to Eisenhower were the economic conservatism of folks like Sen. Harry Byrd (D-VA) and the issue of ownership of the Tidelands Oil, which led TX and LA to the GOP camp. Had Truman ran a second time, he'd have carried the South.
Had this really happened, had Truman actually ran in 1952, I believe he may well have selected a Southern Governor or Senator. My speculative pick would have been Sen. John McClellan (D-AR). McClellan was a conservative, but a loyal Democrat. Another pick MIGHT have been Arkansas Gov. Sid McMath, who has been judged by some as Arkansas's greatest governor ever, but McMath had powerful enemies.
The key for Truman to have been re-elected over Eisenhower, of course, would have been for the city bosses in New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, and New Jersey to pull out all the stops for the Truman ticket. Machine politics was much more in vogue in 1952. On the other hand, Eisenhower was universally popular and had appeal to Democrats, many of whom wished Ike were THEIR nominee. Eisenhower lived in NY in 1952. I can't see Truman beating Eisenhower; people were fed up with him. This is hard for lots of folks who read about how great a President Truman was nowadays to wrap their minds around, but "To Err is Truman" was the driving sentiment of Harry's low approval rating at the time he left office.
