Can Kentucky be won by a Democrat in 2020?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doesn't really matter at this point, but Trump is endanger of losing OH, VA, and Iowa to Cory Booker if the current demographics don't change and due to Trump's ethics. Which can put Joni Ernst and McConnell at risk, as well as Tillis and Gardner in the 2020 Senatorial contests.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Doesn't really matter at this point, but Trump is endanger of losing OH, VA, and Iowa to Cory Booker if the current demographics don't change and due to Trump's ethics. Which can put Joni Ernst and McConnell at risk, as well as Tillis and Gardner in the 2020 Senatorial contests.

Mitch McConnell should be a priority for dems to defeat because he's leader of the Senate and is a symbol of everything nasty about Washington politics itself because of his pride in being owned by big money lobbies.

[libertpaulian]

Doesn't really matter at this point, but Trump is endanger of losing OH, VA, and Iowa to Cory Booker if the current demographics don't change and due to Trump's ethics. Which can put Joni Ernst and McConnell at risk, as well as Tillis and Gardner in the 2020 Senatorial contests.

Mitch McConnell should be a priority for dems to defeat because he's leader of the Senate and is a symbol of everything nasty about Washington politics itself because of his pride in being owned by big money lobbies.

Unless he wises up and decides to retire.  Then, Thomas Massie or Jim Comer can run, both of whom are excellent fits for the state as a whole.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Then, Thomas Massie or Jim Comer can run, both of whom are excellent fits for the state as a whole.

Yer funny.

[Lord Admirale]

Bernie would be the right candidate. He could run up 70-30 in urban centers and win up to 25 coal counties. Especially with a Sanders/Beshear

Yes lets continue with the delusion that Bernie is some unstoppable electoral powerhouse even tho he lost (by 4 million votes) to the woman that Donald Trump beat

Amen

[PragmaticPopulist]

Doubtful. Republicans seem to have convinced eastern Kentucky that coal isn't going away, when all they're doing is prolonging its demise.

I can see Democrats closing the margin a bit with the right candidate, but outright winning it in a presidential election could be decades away.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Dems really go after McConnell, they can win it, with Andy Beshear. Trump has angered Iowans, Ohioans and Virginians with his ethics.  The same WWC that he inspired through the Sanders mov't in 2016. And with the help of Mike Pence.

But, its up to Andy Beshear in what he wants to do for future politics.

[NOVA Green]

Doubtful. Republicans seem to have convinced eastern Kentucky that coal isn't going away, when all they're doing is prolonging its demise.

I can see Democrats closing the margin a bit with the right candidate, but outright winning it in a presidential election could be decades away.

Did my old man eyes deceive me, or did your avatar shift from Green to Red? Maybe I'm going color blind these days, and slightly OT, but anyways....

Sure, I totally agree with Dems closing the margins with the right candidate at a Pres level, and could well see a Dem Gov pickup in KY in the very near future.

That being said, Coal is more of symbolic item these days within the traditional heartlands of Coal Country in Appalachia....

Much of domestic Coal Production has been shifted to Coal Mines out West in Montana, Wyoming, etc....

The problem with the Democratic brand in traditional Coal Country in SE-KY, Southern WV, Western VA, and even deep into PA runs much deeper.

There has been a widespread perception in Appalachian Coal Country that goes back many decades that the National Democratic Party, including various Presidents and Presidential Candidates don't give an eff about the Coal Miner, and Coal Mining communities....

Democratic Presidents over decades have supported the deployment of National Guard troops against striking Coal Miners (Harry Truman), invoked the infamous Taft-Hartley clause (Jimmy Carter), and stood idly by while the bosses hammered the final nail into the coffin (Bill Clinton), of what was a proud and independent Union that even split with the CIO under FDR to protect the interest of Coal Miners, regardless of administration in power.

https://www.wyzant.com/resources/answers/11285/how_did_president_truman_deal_with_strikers_in_the_steel_and_mining_indusries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bituminous_coal_strike_of_1977%E2%80%9378

https://www.csmonitor.com/1993/0907/07021.html

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=46213

There are multiple generations of Coal Miners, including 3rd Generation Coal Miners that I worked with during the strike of '93, that have no faith that the Democratic Party is still the party of workers rights, and although the actual number of jobs associated with Coal in Appalachia is a pale shadow of it's former glory, it is still a symbolic entity when you look at the sheer number of retired Coal Miners, Families, dependents, etc, and although I've seen various Republican Pres candidates over the past few cycles (McCain/Romney/Trump) trot out Coal Miners for photo ops, I haven't seen a Democratic Candidate address these issues directly (Other than Bernie Sanders in the '16 Dem Primaries as well as a Town Hall after).

So now the vast majority of US Coal is produced in Open-Pit Mines in the West, various administrations of both political parties did nothing to stop that trend, and additionally, starting with Bush Sr, then Bill Clinton, later George W., successive Presidents did nothing to stop the importation of Coal to the US from elsewhere in the World....

Now, although one can surely make an argument that Coal as an energy source is decreasing rapidly within the United States, there are still a number of downstream sectors, including Steel, where US manufactured Coal is still the primary precursor raw material, even without talking about domestic energy production and role of Coal-Fired Power Plants....

Various Democratic Presidential Candidates from Gore through HRC have done an extremely poor job of talking about changes within the industry, and how although Coal is declining overall as an energy source it is still and will continue to be relevant for several decades to come.

We are not even talking about the rhetorical and condescending manner in which Democrats have frequently talked about Coal, let alone detailed plans to fund an economic recovery program in traditional Coal Country of Appalachia.

As someone who grew up in a Natural Resource dependent State, I personally find it insulting the way in which Democrat and Republican Presidential nominees alike, have treated Coal Mining communities in Appalachia....

[HomestarSB9]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

Also, voter turnout is extremely low, and there is too much voter apathy.

[RINO Tom]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

Also, voter turnout is extremely low, and there is too much voter apathy.

Someone posted a very interesting article a few years back about how a lot of the Republican voters in KY these days (a lot, not all) were never Democrats to begin with and have been voting Republican for decades ... and it's a lot of the socially conservative Democrats who used to push Democrats over the top in KY who are staying home on election day and no longer see it as worth it to turn out to pick between a Republican and an unsuitable Democrat tied to the national party.  Turnout in former Democratic strongholds has seen the largest drop in these states.

[PoliticalShelter]

Do people forget that Kentucky was one of the historically, least loyal southern states for the democrats.
Bill Clinton barley won the state in the nineties even while he was comfortably winning the national election.

I think because of coal, people think the state is identical to West Virginia. It's not.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

Also, voter turnout is extremely low, and there is too much voter apathy.

Guys I know daddy Trump doesn't have the best approval ratings but Kentucky?? You can't be serious.

[VPH]

Absolutely not.

[AGA]

Nope.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

Also, voter turnout is extremely low, and there is too much voter apathy.

Someone posted a very interesting article a few years back about how a lot of the Republican voters in KY these days (a lot, not all) were never Democrats to begin with and have been voting Republican for decades ... and it's a lot of the socially conservative Democrats who used to push Democrats over the top in KY who are staying home on election day and no longer see it as worth it to turn out to pick between a Republican and an unsuitable Democrat tied to the national party.  Turnout in former Democratic strongholds has seen the largest drop in these states.

That's why the national Democratic party needs to rebrand itself on economic bread and butter issues and stop courting with limousine liberals in order to win them back. Maybe it will take the failure of the Trump administration to win my state.

[Tekken_Guy]

Only way I can see it is if Beshear is on the ticket or they have a WV Coal democrat like Manchin/Tomblin/Justice. Otherwise it'll be a safe GOP win. Maybe if Kentucky goes more diverse or starts to take in cosmopolitan characteristics of NC & GA, it will work. Still doubtful at best.

[RINO Tom]

Only way I can see it is if Beshear is on the ticket or they have a WV Coal democrat like Manchin/Tomblin/Justice. Otherwise it'll be a safe GOP win. Maybe if Kentucky goes more diverse or starts to take in cosmopolitan characteristics of NC & GA, it will work. Still doubtful at best.

Where is this idea that all cosmopolitan growth will forever spell more Democratic strength?  There are some characteristics of "cosmopolitan" that point to Democratic voting (diverse, urban), but there are others that point to Republican voting (affluent).

[HomestarSB9]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

Also, voter turnout is extremely low, and there is too much voter apathy.

Someone posted a very interesting article a few years back about how a lot of the Republican voters in KY these days (a lot, not all) were never Democrats to begin with and have been voting Republican for decades ... and it's a lot of the socially conservative Democrats who used to push Democrats over the top in KY who are staying home on election day and no longer see it as worth it to turn out to pick between a Republican and an unsuitable Democrat tied to the national party.  Turnout in former Democratic strongholds has seen the largest drop in these states.

That's why the national Democratic party needs to rebrand itself on economic bread and butter issues and stop courting with limousine liberals in order to win them back. Maybe it will take the failure of the Trump administration to win my state.

That, and how many people in Kentucky lose their healthcare coverage because of Republicare.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Only possible 20-30 point landslide. Extremely unlikely.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

I personally think it can, it's going to be one of the states most affected by the repeal of ObamaCare, the majority of voters in the state are Democrats (50 D - 40 R), and Mitch McConnell has the lowest approval rating in the Senate.

Also, voter turnout is extremely low, and there is too much voter apathy.

Someone posted a very interesting article a few years back about how a lot of the Republican voters in KY these days (a lot, not all) were never Democrats to begin with and have been voting Republican for decades ... and it's a lot of the socially conservative Democrats who used to push Democrats over the top in KY who are staying home on election day and no longer see it as worth it to turn out to pick between a Republican and an unsuitable Democrat tied to the national party.  Turnout in former Democratic strongholds has seen the largest drop in these states.

That's why the national Democratic party needs to rebrand itself on economic bread and butter issues and stop courting with limousine liberals in order to win them back. Maybe it will take the failure of the Trump administration to win my state.

I wanted to make it easy for folks.

I don't think the kind of Democrat that could even be competitive in KY has a chance of making his/her way to the national ticket. 

[TDAS04]

No.

[pbrower2a]

Can Indiana be won by a Democrat in 2008?

Obama thought Indiana important in the primaries and kept his campaign operating there. As Michigan solidified for him, Barack Obama's campaign had to decide to cut advertising for Michigan. The campaign found that ads in South Bend directed at southwestern Michigan were winning people over in northwestern Indiana and the ads from Fort Wayne directed at northwestern Indiana were working  in Fort Wayne. So move ad money from Detroit, Lansing, and Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo to Indianapolis, Terre Haute, and Evansville...

Indiana has voted for Democratic Governors and Senators.

Indiana closes its polls early, which favors the Republican-leaning rural vote against such urban  centers as Gary, South Bend, and Indianapolis. Indiana has low participation by voters. It is not that different in culture from Ohio. If Indiana had mail-in voting, it would be a swing state in most years. 

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Can Indiana be won by a Democrat in 2008?

Obama thought Indiana important in the primaries and kept his campaign operating there. As Michigan solidified for him, Barack Obama's campaign had to decide to cut advertising for Michigan. The campaign found that ads in South Bend directed at southwestern Michigan were winning people over in northwestern Indiana and the ads from Fort Wayne directed at northwestern Indiana were working  in Fort Wayne. So move ad money from Detroit, Lansing, and Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo to Indianapolis, Terre Haute, and Evansville...

Indiana has voted for Democratic Governors and Senators.

Indiana closes its polls early, which favors the Republican-leaning rural vote against such urban  centers as Gary, South Bend, and Indianapolis. Indiana has low participation by voters. It is not that different in culture from Ohio. If Indiana had mail-in voting, it would be a swing state in most years. 

That's why Kentucky also needs a mail-in voting option.

[The_Doctor]

Not 2020 or as long as the current alignment lasts. Not during the Reagan realignment, but the next one, yeah, I think Kentucky will be within reach for the Democratic Party.

But it will require a number of things to happen, such as major social issues being de-emphasized in favor of economic issues, Democrats coming up with a good energy plan that doesn't hurt Kentucky's coal jobs and white voters moving past the current socially polarizing Southern Strategy deal.