Can Kentucky be won by a Democrat in 2020?

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

There are two large urban Democratic centers, Louisville and Lexington plus the currently Republican leaning Cincinnati suburbs and Frankfort, as well as historically Democratic coal country in the eastern counties. I think that the must be the right candidate that can appeal to Appalachian voters and maximize turnout in the cities while reducing the oversized GOP margins in rest of the state.

[windjammer]

No lol

[JA]

I wish it was possible but, sadly, no. Kentucky would not even go Democrat in 2020 if it was a Beshear/Manchin ticket against Trump during a recession.

[UWS]

It would surprise me but if the Democrats are able to make Kentucky competitive, then Mitch McConnell's seat could be at risk.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Sure...just promise them coal will come back and a big shiny solar wall

Lol!!!! I think that just might work. There are so many ticket splitters in Kentucky. I think the dem nominee should focus on Trumpcare if it passes because it will turn the WWC against Trump when we prove that he's been lying to them the whole time. Democrats should beat Chump at his own game by having more colorful messaging that will get the attention of the American people between the coasts and get them to actually turn out to vote. Low voter turnout has been a huge problem in Kentucky because of apathy among them.

[Bidenworth2020]

Bernie would be the right candidate. He could run up 70-30 in urban centers and win up to 25 coal counties. Especially with a Sanders/Beshear

[NOVA Green]

Don't see it happening at a Presidential level in 2020, unless there is a hypothetical scenario a la Watergate, where it takes several years to fully uncover malfeasance by the President, and the dam doesn't break until late September of 2020....

I certainly don't pretend to be an expert on Kentucky politics and demographics, and I'm sure you have much more local and extensive knowledge than myself on that subject, but outside of the two cities mentioned, even you were to throw in massive swings back to the Dems in 2020 in SE KY, the reality is that most of the population of the state live in small town and rural areas elsewhere, and even if the Dems were to pivot hard on economic issues, downplay the "Culture War" items, I still don't see enough "swing" there to make it close.

At the Gubernatorial, and even potentially at the US Senate level, I could see KY being fiercely contested at some point in the near future, but not at the Presidential level.

[NOVA Green]

Bernie would be the right candidate. He could run up 70-30 in urban centers and win up to 25 coal counties. Especially with a Sanders/Beshear

What would that county map look like?

Also, there are no Union Coal Mining jobs left at all in Kentucky, since the operators busted the UMW/UMWA for good back in '93, and the bosses would do their usual BS about how "Bernie is going to shut down Coal"....

I mean, yeah absolutely Bernie would likely outperform most of the recent Dem Pres candidates in Kentucky, but still don't see how the math would work to get close to a win... maybe a 10 point Pub victory or something, but there is that old saying about horseshoes and politics...

[Holmes]

Elliott county might return to the Democrats if the Democratic nominee is white, male, Midwestern.

[Bidenworth2020]

born and raised, so trust me

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yes. It can. Trust me.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

If Trump isn't running and it's a generic Republican like Pence, and if the Democrat is a socially conservative (pro-gun, pro-life, anti-immigrant) coal baron, and if a populist conservative runs third party, I suppose there's a 0.1% chance the Dem could squeak by with something like 45-44.

[Rookie Yinzer]

No. There is no way that a Democratic nominee in 2020 is winning Kentucky without massively turning off other bastions of the Democratic party like black women concentrated in swing states and Latinos out in the west.

[Skunk]

Any candidate that has a sliver of a chance to win Kentucky has absolutely no chance in the Democratic primaries, so no.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

No. There is no way that a Democratic nominee in 2020 is winning Kentucky without massively turning off other bastions of the Democratic party like black women concentrated in swing states and Latinos out in the west.

Black women in Louisville and Lexington will be key to flipping Kentucky, and they will vote for any candidate to get rid of Trump. The voters in the coal counties need to be appealed to specifically because as a whole they are much more elastic and not loyal to either party.

[Santander]

Dude... you're a Kentuckian. You know the answer to this question.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Can Indiana be won by a Democrat in 2008?

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I know that Kentucky won't flip if the economy remains strong and Trump gets past his scandals, but it will if the Democrats work during the next 4 years to rebuild the party brand at the local level by emphasizing local issues. Governor Matt Bevin is very unpopular, and Democrats must mobilize the apathetic majority to defeat him in 2019 and recreate that coalition with a WWC appealing candidate in 2020.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Mitch McConnell is also extremely unpopular as he takes pride in his overt corruption. His presence on the ballot will encourage voters to vote democrat in both races.

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

Absurdity on your part, i don't think it will vote democratic anytime soon.

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

Can a republican win Washington state? this is probably a question in a parallel universe

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Can a republican win Washington state? this is probably a question in a parallel universe

Washington can be won by a Republican if both parties continue to double down on identity politics, and if Trump has a successful presidency. The future isn't written yet, and anything can happen.

[Lord Admirale]

Bernie would be the right candidate. He could run up 70-30 in urban centers and win up to 25 coal counties. Especially with a Sanders/Beshear

I knew there was gonna be a post like this.

"Bernie can win a landslide you guys!"

[Illini Moderate]

Bernie would be the right candidate. He could run up 70-30 in urban centers and win up to 25 coal counties. Especially with a Sanders/Beshear

Yes lets continue with the delusion that Bernie is some unstoppable electoral powerhouse even tho he lost (by 4 million votes) to the woman that Donald Trump beat

[RINO Tom]

With the right kind of Democrat...

... the margin can be reduced, LOL.  The voters Democrats would need to get over the hump died a while back.