1912 without Roosevelt or Debs

[Joe Republic]

Let's imagine that 1912 was simply Taft vs. Wilson, with no other major third party influence.

If we were to combine the Wilson-Debs vote, and the Taft-Roosevelt vote, this would have been the result:



Taft: 7,608,963 votes; 285 EVs
Wilson: 7,197,735 votes; 246 EVs

I realize that not every Debs voter would have voted Wilson instead, and not every Roosevelt voters would have voted Taft, so does anybody want to speculate how the results would have been different?

[HappyWarrior]

I think Wilson still would have won.  Roosevelt was far more liberal than Taft and seemed to share a leadership style and views more with Wilson than his hand picked successor.

[MasterJedi]

Taft would have easily won re-election. Based on his and Roosevelt's vote totals he really couldn't have lost, even if he lost some voters.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Wilson still wins but not as big if Roosevelt and LaFollete suffer in silence their displeasure with Taft.  To get a truly united GOP will need more than that and that means changing more than just who runs in the election.

Wilson: 338
Taft: 193

[CultureKing]

Remeber that Wilson, Roosevelt and Debs were all the more "progressive" versus the percieved conservative candidate Taft. Most likely Wilson would have taken in most of both Roosevelt's and Deb's votes, winning by an even larger margin.

[minionofmidas]

A 1912 without Roosevelt and Debs is a 1912 with La Follette. The Progressive Party would have happened even if Roosevelt had endorsed Taft (possibly even if Roosevelt had been the Republican nominee, although it would have bombed in that case). La Follette received the Socialist endorsement in 1924, and he probably could have in 1912 if Debs had come out in favor of the idea.

This map adds Roosevelt's and Debs' percentages (too optimistic as some southern Debs fans would have voted for Wilson and many northeastern Progressive Republicans would have stuck with Taft, but will do. OTOH Wisconsin would have gone progressive in this scenario.)

Wilson 373, La Follette 150, Taft 8

[Joe Republic]

Jeez, I posted this thread almost two years ago, and only now does it get some replies?

[MasterJedi]

Jeez, I posted this thread almost two years ago, and only now does it get some replies?

Until you said that I didn't even notice how old it was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Wilson would of won but it would of been a much narrower victory.

[gorkay]

Wilson would have won in a landslide. Liberalism was at its high-water mark in America in 1912, and there's no way a conservative like Taft would have won. The overwhelming majoiryt of the Roosevelt and Debs support would have gone to Wilson.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Taft wins 275-256.