Ditch Mitch 2020 Megathread!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I love how you people are already writing off Gardner and Tillis like over 3 years in advance, and calling the defeat of Sullivan, Daines, and Perdue easy, and don't even get me started on MS and SC...
really solid crap that yall are selling...

KY flipping is laughable, but all the other GOP incumbents (especially Daines, Tillis and Gardner) are really overrated. Not sure about Sullivan, but he's probably in big trouble as well. Either way, the GOP needs to pick up at least 3 Senate seats or so in 2018 because the map in 2020 is so awful for them.

Andy Beshear is a great candidate.  CO, and NC are leaning Democrat. Joni Ernst isn't gonna have an easy time.  But Dems will put KY, MT, Iowa, AK, and ME in play.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love how you people are already writing off Gardner and Tillis like over 3 years in advance, and calling the defeat of Sullivan, Daines, and Perdue easy, and don't even get me started on MS and SC...
really solid crap that yall are selling...

KY flipping is laughable, but all the other GOP incumbents (especially Daines, Tillis and Gardner) are really overrated. Not sure about Sullivan, but he's probably in big trouble as well. Either way, the GOP needs to pick up at least 3 Senate seats or so in 2018 because the map in 2020 is so awful for them.

 But the fact that they are just simply writing them off now is nearly ludicrous. As well as calling Georgia easy, and labeling MS, KS, SC, KY, and others possible.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love how you people are already writing off Gardner and Tillis like over 3 years in advance, and calling the defeat of Sullivan, Daines, and Perdue easy, and don't even get me started on MS and SC...
really solid crap that yall are selling...

KY flipping is laughable, but all the other GOP incumbents (especially Daines, Tillis and Gardner) are really overrated. Not sure about Sullivan, but he's probably in big trouble as well. Either way, the GOP needs to pick up at least 3 Senate seats or so in 2018 because the map in 2020 is so awful for them.

Andy Beshear is a great candidate.  CO, and NC are leaning Democrat. Joni Ernst isn't gonna have an easy time.  But Dems will put KY, MT, Iowa, AK, and ME in play.

Now that's a more reasonable argument. Writing off candidates so soon is is crazy, unless there are special circumstances. In Maine, it depends on whether Collins runs or not. Because she has that seat for as long as she wants.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

[_]

Oh, I agree with you, Bagel. I expect most of these races (except CO) to be competitive. MS, KS, etc. should remain Republican (I'd rate them Likely R at this point), and GA will obviously not be an easy pickup (especially with the runoff law). NH is definitely Safe D, though.

I'm also not sure why Andy Beshear would want to run against McConnell, unless he's suicidal and wants to have his political career ended.

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_1996.  Going to run against the same man his Father lost to 24 years ago, that'll be interesting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Here's my map.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

Yes, but the coal corridor Iowa, VA, KY and OH, have Medicaid expansion and Trump and Leader McConnell are repealing it too, and Cory Booker can appeal to the WWC that Hillary lost due to her ethics.  Bye, McConnell.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here's my map.

Pretty ok, this depends on several things though. ME could only be like that if Collins leaves, Ky will be Likely R, GA is Likely R with Perdue, amd lean R without, Texas is likely to safe R with Cornyn and likely to leanish R without Cornyn and besides that, it is pretty good.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

Yes, but the coal corridor Iowa, VA, KY and OH, have Medicaid expansion and Trump and Leader McConnell are repealing it too, and Cory Booker can appeal to the WWC that Hillary lost due to her ethics.  Bye, McConnell.

Only bye that McConnell will face is retirement or minority leader. Also, what does Cory Booker have to do with this?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Revised NH to leans D since Shaheen is still an out-party incumbent who will still run ahead of Presidem, or should.

Do you know where to make that map? I'd like to make one too.

[Santander]

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

Yes, but the coal corridor Iowa, VA, KY and OH, have Medicaid expansion and Trump and Leader McConnell are repealing it too, and Cory Booker can appeal to the WWC that Hillary lost due to her ethics.  Bye, McConnell.

Only bye that McConnell will face is retirement or minority leader. Also, what does Cory Booker have to do with this?

Cory Booker will not appeal to the WWC at all and he voted against legalizing imported Canadian drugs because he was lobbied to do so. He is an unethical opportunist just like Mitch.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Revised NH to leans D since Shaheen is still an out-party incumbent who will still run ahead of Presidem, or should.

Do you know where to make that map? I'd like to make one too.

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cory Booker is tied with Trump in the polls, KY won't be a battleground, he can appeal to Iowans and Virginians and Wisconsinites.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cory Booker is tied with Trump in the polls, KY won't be a battleground, he can appeal to Iowans and Virginians and Wisconsinites.

True dat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Revised NH to leans D since Shaheen is still an out-party incumbent who will still run ahead of Presidem, or should.

Do you know where to make that map? I'd like to make one too.

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

thanks

[Virginiá]

This is why I lol at anyone thinking this is tossup

He came closer than I would have expected in 2008, but I think those days are gone. He'll have this seat as long as he wants it. Even as hated as he is, and how little he actually gives a crap about Coal/Guns/Freedom, he's still a Republican.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

I hate him too, I agree on how bad he and the GOP is for the state, and I want you to be right, but I'm just not there. Yall lost the state house YUGELY last year, got beaten up by Rand, Clinton got spanked, and managed to fumble Elliot County, have a limited bench of at best underdogs, and those folks such as the sos and atgen are likely not going to challenge McConnell as that is political suicide, so a wounded national party, and an almost incapacitated democratic party of kentucky will have a darn hard time running off the senate leader of the free world. Besides, who cares anyways, there are better seats to contest than this one, NV, AZ, MT, GA, NC, CO, IA, AK, and Maine contingent on Collins leaving, are all comparatively more practical than this one. Probably a few more. Some battles are not worth fighting, and unseating McConnell from Kentucky is one of them.

[Kamala]

Another thing to keep in mind is that Democrats will be really motivated to win back the Senate in 2020 or at least make significant gains, which is why they will recruit top tier candidates everywhere. There is no way Daines, Ernst, Sullivan, etc. will easily cruise to reelection. Republicans are deluding themselves if they think Daines has the advantage just because he is an incumbent, for example.

And they do have a pretty decent potential candidate in those states - Montana's Bullock, Alaska's Berkowitz, North Carolina's Jackson, Georgia's Yates... etc. etc.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

I hate him too, I agree on how bad he and the GOP is for the state, and I want you to be right, but I'm just not there. Yall lost the state house YUGELY last year, got beaten up by Rand, Clinton got spanked, and managed to fumble Elliot County, have a limited bench of at best underdogs, and those folks such as the sos and atgen are likely not going to challenge McConnell as that is political suicide, so a wounded national party, and an almost incapacitated democratic party of kentucky will have a darn hard time running off the senate leader of the free world. Besides, who cares anyways, there are better seats to contest than this one, NV, AZ, MT, GA, NC, CO, IA, AK, and Maine contingent on Collins leaving, are all comparatively more practical than this one. Probably a few more. Some battles are not worth fighting, and unseating McConnell from Kentucky is one of them.

Rand Paul only won by 15 points compared to Trump who won KY by 30 points, and that was against the gay mayor of Lexington, Jim Gray. The national Democratic party will reunite under better, stronger leadership if the Trump administration and the economy collapses on itself. If he is on track to a large defeat, then Democrats will gain those better state seats easily and be able to invest in toppling red state Republicans. Party leaders are always great targets if the political headwinds are running against their own parties such as Tom Foley in 1994, Tom Daschle in 2004, and possibly Paul Ryan in 2018.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Waaay too early to be talking about this, but who knows? I wouldn't expect him to run again in 2020, but not putting it passed him, since he obviously enjoys being the epitome of partisan hacks of the senate. As despised as he is, he'll probably just campaign on "A Democrat is worse than me," unless Democrats get a compelling message by then.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

I hate him too, I agree on how bad he and the GOP is for the state, and I want you to be right, but I'm just not there. Yall lost the state house YUGELY last year, got beaten up by Rand, Clinton got spanked, and managed to fumble Elliot County, have a limited bench of at best underdogs, and those folks such as the sos and atgen are likely not going to challenge McConnell as that is political suicide, so a wounded national party, and an almost incapacitated democratic party of kentucky will have a darn hard time running off the senate leader of the free world. Besides, who cares anyways, there are better seats to contest than this one, NV, AZ, MT, GA, NC, CO, IA, AK, and Maine contingent on Collins leaving, are all comparatively more practical than this one. Probably a few more. Some battles are not worth fighting, and unseating McConnell from Kentucky is one of them.

Rand Paul only won by 15 points compared to Trump who won KY by 30 points, and that was against the gay mayor of Lexington, Jim Gray. The national Democratic party will reunite under better, stronger leadership if the Trump administration and the economy collapses on itself. If he is on track to a large defeat, then Democrats will gain those better states easily and be able to invest in toppling red state Republicans. Party leaders are always great targets if the political headwinds are running against their own parties such as Tom Foley in 1994, Tom Daschle in 2004, and possibly Paul Ryan in 2018.

On Rand Paul, 15 points is small compared to 30, but it is still a huge margin to overcome. And Trump winning by 30ish is a total embarrasment along with Elliot co. And I seriously doubt you are going to have a better democratic candidate for the us senate in KY than Jim Gray. The Democratic party has seen little to no progress since election night, so it might take a bit to reboot, and as I noticed, you did not counter the terrible situation of the KY democratic party. You have few to no good candidates that are even considering a suicide dash again McConnell. Also yall have been declining statewide. Also, you are basing success in a ruby red state on an "if", that is risky enough. The economy is not likely to cave in on itself from now till 2020. Again, you are calling the other states easy to topple, I thought we learned to curb our arrogance on election night, and besides, KY is like one of the last on the list to flip. Look elsewhere. We already have seen Trump approval ratings are bad, does not equal democratic wins. None of the races are going to be easy, and I highly doubt much money and time will be dedicated to KY, when we have near a dozen seats to seriously contest and defend in 2018 and 2020. KY is not impossible as you have pointed out with some of your good arguments, but it just is not practical, and there are bigger and better fish to fry. Sorry bud, unfortunately odds are that you will be stuck with McConnell, and I will be stuck with Cruz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀