Ditch Mitch 2020 Megathread!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀

That's almost ludicrous, but anyways, Daines could also lose to Schweitzer if you could get him to run.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀

That's almost ludicrous, but anyways, Daines could also lose to Schweitzer if you could get him to run.

Daines could lose to most Democrats not named Rob Quist (and even he might make it close in a wave). Running Bullock would be good for them, but it's not necessary (though I'd be very surprised if he didn't run). Schweitzer isn't going to run.

I agree with PNM that CO, NC, MT, IA, AK and GA are going to be the top tier races, with GA probably being the most difficult race for Democrats.

Yeah, Those are, but Beshear is not running against McConnell, and even if he does, he is screwed just like his daddy who was running in a more democrat friendly Kentucky, and Susan Collins is not vulnerable. She is beloved in Maine, and does incredibly well in the state, even during blue waves. She has that seat for as long as she wants, and it can only be flipped if she leaves for the governorship, or retires. That troll account has little idea what he is talking about. A much more plausible senate majority is losing around 2-3 states in 2018, but carrying NV, and then taking CO, NC, ME WITHOUT Collins, trying to take IA, AK, and GA, and getting a senate majority. Or if it falls 50/50, win the presidency, and get a working majority.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀

That's almost ludicrous, but anyways, Daines could also lose to Schweitzer if you could get him to run.

Daines could lose to most Democrats not named Rob Quist (and even he might make it close in a wave). Running Bullock would be good for them, but it's not necessary (though I'd be very surprised if he didn't run). Schweitzer isn't going to run.

I agree with PNM that CO, NC, MT, IA, AK and GA are going to be the top tier races, with GA probably being the most difficult race for Democrats.

Yeah, Those are, but Beshear is not running against McConnell, and even if he does, he is screwed just like his daddy who was running in a more democrat friendly Kentucky, and Susan Collins is not vulnerable. She is beloved in Maine, and does incredibly well in the state, even during blue waves. She has that seat for as long as she wants, and it can only be flipped if she leaves for the governorship, or retires. That troll account has little idea what he is talking about. A much more plausible senate majority is losing around 2-3 states in 2018, but carrying NV, and then taking CO, NC, ME WITHOUT Collins, trying to take IA, AK, and GA, and getting a senate majority. Or if it falls 50/50, win the presidency, and get a working majority.

This is the scenario in a neutral political environment if Trump has a decently high approval rating, if the state of America is worse, then Democrats will win more red states.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Define "decently high approval rating." Frankly, I don't think it's possible for Trump to get much if anything higher than 50% approval rating barring a 9/11 event (and even then, I'd have my doubts it could be sustained). I could see Trump winning a bare EC victory again with something like a mid-40's approval, but even that'd be dicey. He'd have to really bring his opponent down to Hillary levels. And even in the case he won reelection, Dems would still have a chance to make Senate gains, kinda like 2000. Like CO, NC, MT and an open ME, for example, even though Trump would presumably be winning NC and MT.

I agree with you. I think that Democrats would only make these limited gains as mentioned in some previous posts if Trump has a 45% approval rating. I think many of these conservative posters are imagining that there is still the same political environment as during the Obama administration. Democrats should make huge gains in 2020 and and in 2022 if Trump is reelected.

[henster]

Ideal candidate is a Jason Kander type candidate. Young, veteran, not much a voting record. I read about Amy McGrath a Marine Lt. Col considering running against Andy Barr who'd be the perfect candidate.

http://www.dailyindependent.com/news/sources-fighter-pilot-may-challenge-for-barr-s-seat/article_f6cc3a04-2b8f-11e7-8793-3fdf20d8e6c6.html

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Ideal candidate is a Jason Kander type candidate. Young, veteran, not much a voting record. I read about Amy McGrath a Marine Lt. Col considering running against Andy Barr who'd be the perfect candidate.

http://www.dailyindependent.com/news/sources-fighter-pilot-may-challenge-for-barr-s-seat/article_f6cc3a04-2b8f-11e7-8793-3fdf20d8e6c6.html

I think she is a great candidate that can win in that Lexington area district. She can appeal to a broad range of different types of voters such as the WWC, college educated whites, progressives, and she can benefit from increased minority turnout in an anti-Trump midterm. However, she shouldn't repeat the mistakes made by Hillary and Ossoff; she should focus on local issues that matter to the people as well as healthcare. I think she should take a pro-gun position and possibly be pro-life, but laser focus on bread and butter issues. She can use her military experience to gain respect among voters.

[Cactus Jack]

Ideal candidate is a Jason Kander type candidate. Young, veteran, not much a voting record. I read about Amy McGrath a Marine Lt. Col considering running against Andy Barr who'd be the perfect candidate.

http://www.dailyindependent.com/news/sources-fighter-pilot-may-challenge-for-barr-s-seat/article_f6cc3a04-2b8f-11e7-8793-3fdf20d8e6c6.html

Dang. McGrath would be an Ojeda-tier recruit, especially in that district.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Bump

[Skye]

Why the bump? If McConnell is going to lose (and quite probably not), it sure as hell isn't clear for now. The election is 3 years away.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why the bump? If McConnell is going to lose (and quite probably not), it sure as hell isn't clear for now. The election is 3 years away.

[krazen1211]

States generally do not vote for a given party for President while booting an incumbent Senator from the same party. Mitch will be safe in 2020 with Trump!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunately, Krazen the troll is actually right on this one.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

What about...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2008
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_1996
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_1992
There are also many other examples from 1988 and earlier when ticket splitting was more common.
I know that the 2020 Kentucky Senate race will be a tough nut to crack, but it is worth getting rid of the party leader. Kentuckians have a long history of voting Democrat down ballot and for Republican Presidents.

[SATW]

What about...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2008
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_1996
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_1992
There are also many other examples from 1988 and earlier when ticket splitting was more common.
I know that the 2020 Kentucky Senate race will be a tough nut to crack, but it is worth getting rid of the party leader. Kentuckians have a long history of voting Democrat down ballot and for Republican Presidents.

You answered your own question right there.

McConnell is safe in 2020.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

What about...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2008
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_1996
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_1992
There are also many other examples from 1988 and earlier when ticket splitting was more common.
I know that the 2020 Kentucky Senate race will be a tough nut to crack, but it is worth getting rid of the party leader. Kentuckians have a long history of voting Democrat down ballot and for Republican Presidents.

You answered your own question right there.

McConnell is safe in 2020.

In 2008, Alaskans voted out their beloved pork barrel sugar daddy and in 2000, Missourians voted for a literal dead man against their incumbent Republican. In 2004, Kentucky barely reelected Jim Bunning by less than a percentage point while Bush carried the state by 20 points. Mitch can definitely lose if Democrats run a good campaign with a solid candidate.

[MarkD]

I still think the best way to discuss this is with what Andy said:

What if Mcconnell retires?

McConnell won't retire. He has very little to look forward to in life. Nobody likes him; he has the lowest approval rating out of all 100 senators. The Senate is his mistress

Thirty-six years as a senator, including over one dozen years as the GOP leader? How can we assume he'll stay healthy for another 3 years? Just because he looks like a tortoise is no reason to assume that he'll live as long as one. I predict he will retire.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I still think the best way to discuss this is with what Andy said:

What if Mcconnell retires?

McConnell won't retire. He has very little to look forward to in life. Nobody likes him; he has the lowest approval rating out of all 100 senators. The Senate is his mistress

Thirty-six years as a senator, including over one dozen years as the GOP leader? How can we assume he'll stay healthy for another 3 years? Just because he looks like a tortoise is no reason to assume that he'll live as long as one. I predict he will retire.

He'll try to become the next Strom Thurmond if possible. He absolutely enjoys using his power to shill for his corporate masters. He loves that evil guy persona that he's cultivated over the decades. If he leaves the Senate, he'll have nothing to look forward to. He's at the peak of his power right now, and he'll never give it up. The Turtle is definitely willing to die in the Senate. Also, he has excellent healthcare like all other congressmen. Mitch isn't like Darth Cheney who was willing to settle for a comfy retirement. Mitch McConnell relishes every moment that he spends working.

[Young Conservative]

A Primary challenge is the only way he loses.