Ditch Mitch 2020 Megathread!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sorry, won't happened. But, we could make him the minority leader if we play our cards right...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sorry, won't happened. But, we could make him the minority leader if we play our cards right...

The reason he won in 2014 against the blue dog Allison Grimes was because his super PACs funded ads that compared her to Obama who was even more unpopular. It was also a wave year for the GOP while Obama was near his lowest approval rating nationally. Without that "black bogeyman" in the White House, coal country will be open to a new face and party that will actually care about there communities instead of Wall Street and corporate interests.

It's not just 2014, he wins and wins and wins and wins, there are better seats up for grabs than kentucky, let's focus on those instead of wasting money on this one.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What if Mcconnell retires?

Another Republican will essentially be coronated.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes, Mitch McConnell and Joni Ernst are vulnerable
Tillis and Cory Gardner are surely gonna lose in 2020 as their states respectively are trending away and this will give Dems their Senate majority

Alaska, Montana, and Georgia can also easily flip as well as Maine if Collins retires. Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Mississippi can also flip if Trump loses in a landslide and if their senators retire.

I love how you people are already writing off Gardner and Tillis like over 3 years in advance, and calling the defeat of Sullivan, Daines, and Perdue easy, and don't even get me started on MS and SC...
really solid crap that yall are selling...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love how you people are already writing off Gardner and Tillis like over 3 years in advance, and calling the defeat of Sullivan, Daines, and Perdue easy, and don't even get me started on MS and SC...
really solid crap that yall are selling...

KY flipping is laughable, but all the other GOP incumbents (especially Daines, Tillis and Gardner) are really overrated. Not sure about Sullivan, but he's probably in big trouble as well. Either way, the GOP needs to pick up at least 3 Senate seats or so in 2018 because the map in 2020 is so awful for them.

 But the fact that they are just simply writing them off now is nearly ludicrous. As well as calling Georgia easy, and labeling MS, KS, SC, KY, and others possible.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I love how you people are already writing off Gardner and Tillis like over 3 years in advance, and calling the defeat of Sullivan, Daines, and Perdue easy, and don't even get me started on MS and SC...
really solid crap that yall are selling...

KY flipping is laughable, but all the other GOP incumbents (especially Daines, Tillis and Gardner) are really overrated. Not sure about Sullivan, but he's probably in big trouble as well. Either way, the GOP needs to pick up at least 3 Senate seats or so in 2018 because the map in 2020 is so awful for them.

Andy Beshear is a great candidate.  CO, and NC are leaning Democrat. Joni Ernst isn't gonna have an easy time.  But Dems will put KY, MT, Iowa, AK, and ME in play.

Now that's a more reasonable argument. Writing off candidates so soon is is crazy, unless there are special circumstances. In Maine, it depends on whether Collins runs or not. Because she has that seat for as long as she wants.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Here's my map.

Pretty ok, this depends on several things though. ME could only be like that if Collins leaves, Ky will be Likely R, GA is Likely R with Perdue, amd lean R without, Texas is likely to safe R with Cornyn and likely to leanish R without Cornyn and besides that, it is pretty good.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

Yes, but the coal corridor Iowa, VA, KY and OH, have Medicaid expansion and Trump and Leader McConnell are repealing it too, and Cory Booker can appeal to the WWC that Hillary lost due to her ethics.  Bye, McConnell.

Only bye that McConnell will face is retirement or minority leader. Also, what does Cory Booker have to do with this?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Revised NH to leans D since Shaheen is still an out-party incumbent who will still run ahead of Presidem, or should.

Do you know where to make that map? I'd like to make one too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cory Booker is tied with Trump in the polls, KY won't be a battleground, he can appeal to Iowans and Virginians and Wisconsinites.

True dat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Revised NH to leans D since Shaheen is still an out-party incumbent who will still run ahead of Presidem, or should.

Do you know where to make that map? I'd like to make one too.

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

thanks

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

I hate him too, I agree on how bad he and the GOP is for the state, and I want you to be right, but I'm just not there. Yall lost the state house YUGELY last year, got beaten up by Rand, Clinton got spanked, and managed to fumble Elliot County, have a limited bench of at best underdogs, and those folks such as the sos and atgen are likely not going to challenge McConnell as that is political suicide, so a wounded national party, and an almost incapacitated democratic party of kentucky will have a darn hard time running off the senate leader of the free world. Besides, who cares anyways, there are better seats to contest than this one, NV, AZ, MT, GA, NC, CO, IA, AK, and Maine contingent on Collins leaving, are all comparatively more practical than this one. Probably a few more. Some battles are not worth fighting, and unseating McConnell from Kentucky is one of them.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

I hate him too, I agree on how bad he and the GOP is for the state, and I want you to be right, but I'm just not there. Yall lost the state house YUGELY last year, got beaten up by Rand, Clinton got spanked, and managed to fumble Elliot County, have a limited bench of at best underdogs, and those folks such as the sos and atgen are likely not going to challenge McConnell as that is political suicide, so a wounded national party, and an almost incapacitated democratic party of kentucky will have a darn hard time running off the senate leader of the free world. Besides, who cares anyways, there are better seats to contest than this one, NV, AZ, MT, GA, NC, CO, IA, AK, and Maine contingent on Collins leaving, are all comparatively more practical than this one. Probably a few more. Some battles are not worth fighting, and unseating McConnell from Kentucky is one of them.

Rand Paul only won by 15 points compared to Trump who won KY by 30 points, and that was against the gay mayor of Lexington, Jim Gray. The national Democratic party will reunite under better, stronger leadership if the Trump administration and the economy collapses on itself. If he is on track to a large defeat, then Democrats will gain those better states easily and be able to invest in toppling red state Republicans. Party leaders are always great targets if the political headwinds are running against their own parties such as Tom Foley in 1994, Tom Daschle in 2004, and possibly Paul Ryan in 2018.

On Rand Paul, 15 points is small compared to 30, but it is still a huge margin to overcome. And Trump winning by 30ish is a total embarrasment along with Elliot co. And I seriously doubt you are going to have a better democratic candidate for the us senate in KY than Jim Gray. The Democratic party has seen little to no progress since election night, so it might take a bit to reboot, and as I noticed, you did not counter the terrible situation of the KY democratic party. You have few to no good candidates that are even considering a suicide dash again McConnell. Also yall have been declining statewide. Also, you are basing success in a ruby red state on an "if", that is risky enough. The economy is not likely to cave in on itself from now till 2020. Again, you are calling the other states easy to topple, I thought we learned to curb our arrogance on election night, and besides, KY is like one of the last on the list to flip. Look elsewhere. We already have seen Trump approval ratings are bad, does not equal democratic wins. None of the races are going to be easy, and I highly doubt much money and time will be dedicated to KY, when we have near a dozen seats to seriously contest and defend in 2018 and 2020. KY is not impossible as you have pointed out with some of your good arguments, but it just is not practical, and there are bigger and better fish to fry. Sorry bud, unfortunately odds are that you will be stuck with McConnell, and I will be stuck with Cruz.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀

That's almost ludicrous, but anyways, Daines could also lose to Schweitzer if you could get him to run.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀

That's almost ludicrous, but anyways, Daines could also lose to Schweitzer if you could get him to run.

Daines could lose to most Democrats not named Rob Quist (and even he might make it close in a wave). Running Bullock would be good for them, but it's not necessary (though I'd be very surprised if he didn't run). Schweitzer isn't going to run.

I agree with PNM that CO, NC, MT, IA, AK and GA are going to be the top tier races, with GA probably being the most difficult race for Democrats.

Yeah, Those are, but Beshear is not running against McConnell, and even if he does, he is screwed just like his daddy who was running in a more democrat friendly Kentucky, and Susan Collins is not vulnerable. She is beloved in Maine, and does incredibly well in the state, even during blue waves. She has that seat for as long as she wants, and it can only be flipped if she leaves for the governorship, or retires. That troll account has little idea what he is talking about. A much more plausible senate majority is losing around 2-3 states in 2018, but carrying NV, and then taking CO, NC, ME WITHOUT Collins, trying to take IA, AK, and GA, and getting a senate majority. Or if it falls 50/50, win the presidency, and get a working majority.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why the bump? If McConnell is going to lose (and quite probably not), it sure as hell isn't clear for now. The election is 3 years away.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Unfortunately, Krazen the troll is actually right on this one.