Ditch Mitch 2020 Megathread!!

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Who are the best people who have the guts to take on the Mitch McConnell political machine of Kentucky in 2020? How will it be done. What will they have to do? Will the success or failure of the Trump administration affect this?

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

An election is not actually held for McConnell's seat. Yes, ballots are cast, but instead of counting them, state officials roll dice to determine his margin of victory - McConnell losing is not an option.

TL;DR: McConnell will never be defeated.

Hahaha! That's richer than his wife!

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Sorry, won't happened. But, we could make him the minority leader if we play our cards right...

The reason he won in 2014 against the blue dog Allison Grimes was because his super PACs funded ads that compared her to Obama who was even more unpopular. It was also a wave year for the GOP while Obama was near his lowest approval rating nationally. Without that "black bogeyman" in the White House, coal country will be open to a new face and party that will actually care about there communities instead of Wall Street and corporate interests.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

An election is not actually held for McConnell's seat. Yes, ballots are cast, but instead of counting them, state officials roll dice to determine his margin of victory - McConnell losing is not an option.

TL;DR: McConnell will never be defeated.

Hahaha! That's richer than his wife!

It's funny how she's now qualified for her cabinet position because in the past she was appointed to a position she was unqualified for.

I guess Trump nominated her to gain the loyalty of her husband and let her chose which department she wants to lead.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Isnt there a liberal grand wizard the Democrats could run?

How about this dude from California:P
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-03-14/ku-klux-klan-grand-dragon-will-quigg-endorses-hillary-clinton-for-president

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Isnt there a liberal grand wizard the Democrats could run?

How about this dude from California:P

W. Kamau Bell is a progressive who seems quite comfortable with them!
http://www.npr.org/sections/codeswitch/2016/04/14/474215754/comic-w-kamau-bell-on-standing-tall-and-finding-humor-in-americas-racism

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Judd 2020.

If I were a Democrat, I'd want Andy Beshear to get in. I imagine many people in Kentucky of all places who Democrats would need to flip to win the seat would NOT vote for her because she's a celebrity. I imagine Hollywood stars are unpopular there, and if Democrats want to make inroads in Middle America again, they should not make Hollywood their face, which they sure did at events like the Womens' March.

I agree with your assessment especially since his father was a popular Democratic governor who survived the Obama years in Kentucky. He could also be interested in running for governor against Bevin in 2019 instead. It is definitely possible for him to do both, but he might be seen as a political opportunist who is part of a dynasty. Although, I think that people's attitudes toward political dynasties might change after a few years of a disastrous Trump administration who is a political outsider who had no experience. Trump was a celebrity whose base centers in Appalachia, the south, and the midwest which all collide in Kentucky.
I think Kentucky will be well served by some intelligent athlete who played for a college team like the University of Louisville (UofL) or the University of Kentucky (UK- based in Lexington). He can be an outsider and can command the respect of all races and classes. A possible problem to this is that the rivalry between UofL and UK seems more intense than the level of polarization in its politics (which is quite low compared to most states which plays to the advantage of the Democrats) as Kentuckians are actually more loyal to their teams than their parties. It might work out. Who knows!?!?

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Sorry, won't happened. But, we could make him the minority leader if we play our cards right...

The reason he won in 2014 against the blue dog Allison Grimes was because his super PACs funded ads that compared her to Obama who was even more unpopular. It was also a wave year for the GOP while Obama was near his lowest approval rating nationally. Without that "black bogeyman" in the White House, coal country will be open to a new face and party that will actually care about there communities instead of Wall Street and corporate interests.

It's not just 2014, he wins and wins and wins and wins, there are better seats up for grabs than kentucky, let's focus on those instead of wasting money on this one.

2008 was a really narrow one to be fair.

Mitch only survived because he shared the ballot with Obama, and there were a lot of angry conservative democrats who stayed home on election day. In 2004, Jim Bunning won by less than a percentage point, even though GWB won KY by 20 points and the anti-gay marriage amendment was even more popular. Downballot Democrats always outperform the presidential nominee.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Yes, Mitch McConnell and Joni Ernst are vulnerable
Tillis and Cory Gardner are surely gonna lose in 2020 as their states respectively are trending away and this will give Dems their Senate majority

Alaska, Montana, and Georgia can also easily flip as well as Maine if Collins retires. Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, South Carolina, West Virginia, and Mississippi can also flip if Trump loses in a landslide and if their senators retire.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Here's my map.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Andy Beshear will run for something of course.  But, McConnell almost lost in 2008, lets not make him invincible.  But Beashear is up and coming now, since Edelen lost in 2015.

Not invincible, but nearly so. Lots has changed since 2008 in Ky, it has gotten A LOT redder.

Yes, but the coal corridor Iowa, VA, KY and OH, have Medicaid expansion and Trump and Leader McConnell are repealing it too, and Cory Booker can appeal to the WWC that Hillary lost due to her ethics.  Bye, McConnell.

Only bye that McConnell will face is retirement or minority leader. Also, what does Cory Booker have to do with this?

Cory Booker will not appeal to the WWC at all and he voted against legalizing imported Canadian drugs because he was lobbied to do so. He is an unethical opportunist just like Mitch.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Revised NH to leans D since Shaheen is still an out-party incumbent who will still run ahead of Presidem, or should.

Do you know where to make that map? I'd like to make one too.

https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/evcalc.php

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

He doesn't give a damn about freedom, Kentucky's over reliance on coal keeps it impoverished, and there can easily be a Democrat candidate that supports gun rights since Republicans have used it as an issue to get poor whites to vote against their rational self-interest for decades.

I hate him too, I agree on how bad he and the GOP is for the state, and I want you to be right, but I'm just not there. Yall lost the state house YUGELY last year, got beaten up by Rand, Clinton got spanked, and managed to fumble Elliot County, have a limited bench of at best underdogs, and those folks such as the sos and atgen are likely not going to challenge McConnell as that is political suicide, so a wounded national party, and an almost incapacitated democratic party of kentucky will have a darn hard time running off the senate leader of the free world. Besides, who cares anyways, there are better seats to contest than this one, NV, AZ, MT, GA, NC, CO, IA, AK, and Maine contingent on Collins leaving, are all comparatively more practical than this one. Probably a few more. Some battles are not worth fighting, and unseating McConnell from Kentucky is one of them.

Rand Paul only won by 15 points compared to Trump who won KY by 30 points, and that was against the gay mayor of Lexington, Jim Gray. The national Democratic party will reunite under better, stronger leadership if the Trump administration and the economy collapses on itself. If he is on track to a large defeat, then Democrats will gain those better state seats easily and be able to invest in toppling red state Republicans. Party leaders are always great targets if the political headwinds are running against their own parties such as Tom Foley in 1994, Tom Daschle in 2004, and possibly Paul Ryan in 2018.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Top 5 vulnerable GoP are in fact McConnell if Beshear doesn't run for 2019 gov, Joni Ernst, Cory Gardner, Tom Tills and Susan Collins of ME. That's the Dem path to Majority should Dems net lose MO and IN in 2018. Danes will only lose if Bullock runs. But sure McConnell, Ernst and Collins can and should lose😀

That's almost ludicrous, but anyways, Daines could also lose to Schweitzer if you could get him to run.

Daines could lose to most Democrats not named Rob Quist (and even he might make it close in a wave). Running Bullock would be good for them, but it's not necessary (though I'd be very surprised if he didn't run). Schweitzer isn't going to run.

I agree with PNM that CO, NC, MT, IA, AK and GA are going to be the top tier races, with GA probably being the most difficult race for Democrats.

Yeah, Those are, but Beshear is not running against McConnell, and even if he does, he is screwed just like his daddy who was running in a more democrat friendly Kentucky, and Susan Collins is not vulnerable. She is beloved in Maine, and does incredibly well in the state, even during blue waves. She has that seat for as long as she wants, and it can only be flipped if she leaves for the governorship, or retires. That troll account has little idea what he is talking about. A much more plausible senate majority is losing around 2-3 states in 2018, but carrying NV, and then taking CO, NC, ME WITHOUT Collins, trying to take IA, AK, and GA, and getting a senate majority. Or if it falls 50/50, win the presidency, and get a working majority.

This is the scenario in a neutral political environment if Trump has a decently high approval rating, if the state of America is worse, then Democrats will win more red states.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Define "decently high approval rating." Frankly, I don't think it's possible for Trump to get much if anything higher than 50% approval rating barring a 9/11 event (and even then, I'd have my doubts it could be sustained). I could see Trump winning a bare EC victory again with something like a mid-40's approval, but even that'd be dicey. He'd have to really bring his opponent down to Hillary levels. And even in the case he won reelection, Dems would still have a chance to make Senate gains, kinda like 2000. Like CO, NC, MT and an open ME, for example, even though Trump would presumably be winning NC and MT.

I agree with you. I think that Democrats would only make these limited gains as mentioned in some previous posts if Trump has a 45% approval rating. I think many of these conservative posters are imagining that there is still the same political environment as during the Obama administration. Democrats should make huge gains in 2020 and and in 2022 if Trump is reelected.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Ideal candidate is a Jason Kander type candidate. Young, veteran, not much a voting record. I read about Amy McGrath a Marine Lt. Col considering running against Andy Barr who'd be the perfect candidate.

http://www.dailyindependent.com/news/sources-fighter-pilot-may-challenge-for-barr-s-seat/article_f6cc3a04-2b8f-11e7-8793-3fdf20d8e6c6.html

I think she is a great candidate that can win in that Lexington area district. She can appeal to a broad range of different types of voters such as the WWC, college educated whites, progressives, and she can benefit from increased minority turnout in an anti-Trump midterm. However, she shouldn't repeat the mistakes made by Hillary and Ossoff; she should focus on local issues that matter to the people as well as healthcare. I think she should take a pro-gun position and possibly be pro-life, but laser focus on bread and butter issues. She can use her military experience to gain respect among voters.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Bump

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

What about...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2008
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_1996
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_1992
There are also many other examples from 1988 and earlier when ticket splitting was more common.
I know that the 2020 Kentucky Senate race will be a tough nut to crack, but it is worth getting rid of the party leader. Kentuckians have a long history of voting Democrat down ballot and for Republican Presidents.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

What about...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska,_2008
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2000
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Dakota,_1996
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia,_1992
There are also many other examples from 1988 and earlier when ticket splitting was more common.
I know that the 2020 Kentucky Senate race will be a tough nut to crack, but it is worth getting rid of the party leader. Kentuckians have a long history of voting Democrat down ballot and for Republican Presidents.

You answered your own question right there.

McConnell is safe in 2020.

In 2008, Alaskans voted out their beloved pork barrel sugar daddy and in 2000, Missourians voted for a literal dead man against their incumbent Republican. In 2004, Kentucky barely reelected Jim Bunning by less than a percentage point while Bush carried the state by 20 points. Mitch can definitely lose if Democrats run a good campaign with a solid candidate.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I still think the best way to discuss this is with what Andy said:

What if Mcconnell retires?

McConnell won't retire. He has very little to look forward to in life. Nobody likes him; he has the lowest approval rating out of all 100 senators. The Senate is his mistress

Thirty-six years as a senator, including over one dozen years as the GOP leader? How can we assume he'll stay healthy for another 3 years? Just because he looks like a tortoise is no reason to assume that he'll live as long as one. I predict he will retire.

He'll try to become the next Strom Thurmond if possible. He absolutely enjoys using his power to shill for his corporate masters. He loves that evil guy persona that he's cultivated over the decades. If he leaves the Senate, he'll have nothing to look forward to. He's at the peak of his power right now, and he'll never give it up. The Turtle is definitely willing to die in the Senate. Also, he has excellent healthcare like all other congressmen. Mitch isn't like Darth Cheney who was willing to settle for a comfy retirement. Mitch McConnell relishes every moment that he spends working.