Seventh Party System

[I’m not Stu]

Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are trending away from the GOP in Presidential races with the Hispanic population growing. If Texas votes Democratic some time from 2020-2028, what would the GOP try to do? What if the Trumpists lose votes? What if Republicans abandon Trump? What would the parties look like?

[Person Man]

I don't think there is much hope in bringing back the Obama or W coalition. Even Bill could not restore the Carter coalition. He basically used half of it plus half of what would become Obama's 

[pbrower2a]

Should the GOP be discredited, then  I think we will end up with a political party similar top that of Germany after the Democratic Party splits into a Social Democratic Party and a Christian Democratic Party.

Should the Republican Party become the dominant Party, then America will have for all practical purposes a political order much like that of China in which alternatives are allowed but remain impotent. Small splinter parties will reflect professional groups, ethnic and religious minorities, and economic interests. They will have to be satisfied with getting a few scraps of legislation, but all in all, America will be the sort of country in which government is of the rich, by the rich, and for the rich. Econoic reality will be much like that of the Jim Crow South.  

[Kingpoleon]

The real question here is which party will win the battle for populism/nationalism, and which one will become more classically liberal.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The real question here is which party will win the battle for populism/nationalism, and which one will become more classically liberal.

The classically liberal Party has (with very minor exceptions in regards to trade policy) always been the GOP going all the way back to Lincoln, no?

Economic populism will go to the Democrats. They have an actual populist that's very popular with the youth steering their Party in many ways (Sanders) while the GOP has a faux populist with no actual mandate leading theirs (Trump). Plus when you look at history to any Democratic Party majority be it Jefferson, Jackson, or Roosevelt, it's always centered on a populist economic agenda.

[Person Man]

Should the GOP be discredited, then  I think we will end up with a political party similar top that of Germany after the Democratic Party splits into a Social Democratic Party and a Christian Democratic Party.

Should the Republican Party become the dominant Party, then America will have for all practical purposes a political order much like that of China in which alternatives are allowed but remain impotent. Small splinter parties will reflect professional groups, ethnic and religious minorities, and economic interests. They will have to be satisfied with getting a few scraps of legislation, but all in all, America will be the sort of country in which government is of the rich, by the rich, and for the rich. Econoic reality will be much like that of the Jim Crow South.  

Bssically, at the rate we are going, the Democratic Party will start to be slowly replaced by Greens, Libertarians, State Liberal Parties, Socialist alternatives, and Independents in about 10 or 20 states. A lot of Red States might move their GOP primaries to October or just have a ALEC like corporation that runs the state bureaucracy and matches constitutional offices to party officials, simply hires for them, or just appoints corporate leaders, priests, bishops, and NG commanders to them. Maybe liberal states after a period of revolts against a right wing national Government will then be allowed to open "Reservations" from Federal Law and Taxation...where they can have the society they want subject to not leaving them.

The real question here is which party will win the battle for populism/nationalism, and which one will become more classically liberal.

The classically liberal Party has (with very minor exceptions in regards to trade policy) always been the GOP going all the way back to Lincoln, no?

Economic populism will go to the Democrats. They have an actual populist that's very popular with the youth steering their Party in many ways while the GOP has a faux populist with no actual mandate leading theirs. Plus when you look at history to any Democratic Party majority be it Jefferson, Jackson, or Roosevelt, it's always centered on a  populist economic agenda.

Or maybe the GOP will become an Ethnic Nationalist party and Dems become a Civic Nationalism party.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I agree that there's been a sort of "re-nationalization" of many political Parties in the western world be they Left or Right. The populist Left is angry at international trade agreements along with the mobility of financial capital, corporate inversions, etc. while the Right is angry with many of the same issue; they're also angry at the percieved threat of immigrants. The biggest difference between these two types of nationalism as you noted is that they have a very different definition of who's "in" the nation.

However, the GOP in the United States can't surivive as an explicitly ethno-nationalist Party. The largest margin with white voters any GOP candidate has ever gotten was Reagan in his landslide 84' victory and that was 66%. The changing demographics of the country plus 35% of white liberals (millennials, single women, city and cosmopolitan types, etc.)  suggest that that isn't a viable strategy for them moving forward beyond 2024.

[I’m not Stu]

I agree that there's been a sort of "re-nationalization" of many political Parties in the western world be they Left or Right. The populist Left is angry at international trade agreements along with the mobility of financial capital, corporate inversions, etc. while the Right is angry with many of the same issue; they're also angry at the percieved threat of immigrants. The biggest difference between these two types of nationalism as you noted is that they have a very different definition of who's "in" the nation.

However, the GOP in the United States can't surivive as an explicitly ethno-nationalist Party. The largest margin with white voters any GOP candidate has ever gotten was Reagan in his landslide 84' victory and that was 66%. The changing demographics of the country plus 35% of white liberals (millennials, single women, city and cosmopolitan types, etc.)  suggest that that isn't a viable strategy for them moving forward beyond 2024.

Exactly. The GOP needs to change. The Southern Strategy appealing to conservative whites will eventually stop working.

What would happen to the GOP if the map looks like this? Where do the completely new and dramatically different coalitions go?

[The_Doctor]

Refer to like most of my posts on the 7th party system because I've made it one of my main atlas focuses… anyway TT covers it.

[Sumner 1868]

Texas isn't flipping. Hispanics aren't Democratic enough.

[I’m not Stu]

Texas could flip eventually, especially with higher Hispanic turnout. There has been a strong swing to the Democrats in Texas. Trump failed to win Texas by double digits. Where would the GOP go to remain viable and appeal to Hispanics?

[Technocracy Timmy]

Texas isn't flipping. Hispanics aren't Democratic enough.

If they ran as an ethno-nationalist Party then Texas would be a swing state at the very least.

[I’m not Stu]

Texas isn't flipping. Hispanics aren't Democratic enough.

If they ran as an ethno-nationalist Party then Texas would be a swing state at the very least.

TX is moving closer to becoming a swing state. What strategies might Republicans use to gain Hispanic voters?

[The Self]

I doubt there will be a new Party system.

1. The ideas that could power a renewed Democratic ascendance would entail a partial rejection of the New Deal governing philosophy - not in the direction of a Clintonite business system, but towards an ideological left-libertarianism instead. This would appeal neither to the bureaucratic apparatus nor to the Party activists.

2. The Republicans don't have it in themselves to command a realignment, either. Even a series of consecutive GOP Presidential wins, stretching into the 2030s, would signify no more than the total exhaustion of the American political system and a default to the conservative grouping. A realignment entails new ideas and new ways of governing, harnessed together with a new energy. The Republican Party is lightyears from this, and getting more distant every day.

Rather I suspect we're in for a period of stagnation and decay that lasts most of my adult life.

[Virginiá]

Rather I suspect we're in for a period of stagnation and decay that lasts most of my adult life.

How old are you?

[I’m not Stu]

I doubt there will be a new Party system.

1. The ideas that could power a renewed Democratic ascendance would entail a partial rejection of the New Deal governing philosophy - not in the direction of a Clintonite business system, but towards an ideological left-libertarianism instead. This would appeal neither to the bureaucratic apparatus nor to the Party activists.

2. The Republicans don't have it in themselves to command a realignment, either. Even a series of consecutive GOP Presidential wins, stretching into the 2030s, would signify no more than the total exhaustion of the American political system and a default to the conservative grouping. A realignment entails new ideas and new ways of governing, harnessed together with a new energy. The Republican Party is lightyears from this, and getting more distant every day.

Rather I suspect we're in for a period of stagnation and decay that lasts most of my adult life.

If the GOP stays the way it is, Democrats will dominate because they will win over a growing population Republicans will be unable to win. If the GOP doesn't adapt, it dies. Today, major parties are unlikely to die.

[Sumner 1868]

Texas could flip eventually. There has been a strong swing to the Democrats in Texas. Trump failed to win Texas by double digits. Where would the GOP go to remain viable and appeal to Hispanics?

Again, the whole Hispanic thing is false hope and generalizations. About a third of Texas Hispanics vote for Trump - including 41% of Hispanic males in the state. Meanwhile, only about a quarter of whites in the state are voting Democratic, while in Arizona they swung between the high thirties and low forties.

[I’m not Stu]

Texas could flip eventually. There has been a strong swing to the Democrats in Texas. Trump failed to win Texas by double digits. Where would the GOP go to remain viable and appeal to Hispanics?

Again, the whole Hispanic thing is false hope and generalizations. About a third of Texas Hispanics vote for Trump - including 41% of Hispanic males in the state. Meanwhile, only about a quarter of whites in the state are voting Democratic, while in Arizona they swung between the high thirties and low forties.

This poll suggests Trump only got 24% of Hispanic males

[The Self]

Rather I suspect we're in for a period of stagnation and decay that lasts most of my adult life.

How old are you?

31. I don't expect the political system to even begin to thaw until my mid-sixties or later.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Rather I suspect we're in for a period of stagnation and decay that lasts most of my adult life.

How old are you?

31. I don't expect the political system to even begin to thaw until my mid-sixties or later.

C'mon pal, cheer up. We're only the most polarized since the lead up to the deadliest conflict in American history. This polarization has to eventually break soon.

[I’m not Stu]

I think if Clinton got 25% of whites and Trump got 41% of Hispanic men, Trump would have won by double digits. I was surprised Trump couldn't win by double digits.

[Sumner 1868]

Texas could flip eventually. There has been a strong swing to the Democrats in Texas. Trump failed to win Texas by double digits. Where would the GOP go to remain viable and appeal to Hispanics?

Again, the whole Hispanic thing is false hope and generalizations. About a third of Texas Hispanics vote for Trump - including 41% of Hispanic males in the state. Meanwhile, only about a quarter of whites in the state are voting Democratic, while in Arizona they swung between the high thirties and low forties.

This poll suggests Trump only got 24% of Hispanic males

Well, it also says that Clinton got eight-tenths of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, which is...er, problematic mathematically speaking.

[I’m not Stu]

Rather I suspect we're in for a period of stagnation and decay that lasts most of my adult life.

How old are you?

31. I don't expect the political system to even begin to thaw until my mid-sixties or later.

C'mon pal, cheer up. We're only the most polarized since the lead up to the deadliest conflict in American history. This polarization has to eventually break soon.

Right. I can't imagine Texas trending GOP or staying the same with the Hispanic population growing. While more Hispanics in Texas vote GOP than Hispanics in other states, they still are more likely to vote Democratic. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz (who won the TX GOP primary) do very well with TX Hispanics, Trump doesn't. Texas is certainly trending Democratic at a faster rate than I expected.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hispanics will trend republican soon. The newer arrivals and their children tend to be democrat but as the later and better assimilated generations grow up they will probably be like mediterranean groups like Italians and Portuguese who are now rapidly trending R

[I’m not Stu]

Hispanics will trend republican soon. The newer arrivals and their children tend to be democrat but as the later and better assimilated generations grow up they will probably be like mediterranean groups like Italians and Portuguese who are now rapidly trending R

I can easily see them trending Republican when the Southern Strategy becomes ineffective and a major realignment takes place. I think they will continue to trend Democratic under the current Sixth Party System. Once states like Texas and Georgia vote Democratic, the GOP abandons Trumpism, restrictive immigration policies, and Nixon's Southern Strategy, Hispanics might trend GOP then. It's possible GOP and Democrats might reverse roles because of crumbling coalitions in both parties. It's also possible both parties might be not be distinguished by a conservative and a liberal party, but both parties having conservatives, centrists, and leftists, with other issues separating the two parties. It's unknown what will happen.