Is AZ a realistic pickup for Dems without a strong third party?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Unless the Libertarian party gets a decent % again, I'm not sure Dems can win AZ. It's polarized, and they've gotten the same 44-46% for the past 20 years.

[AtorBoltox]

It's a tossup, lean D if Trump's favourables are low enough. It's certainly more in play for the dems then Ohio and Iowa

[NOVA Green]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

[Mr. Smith]

I'd trust GA first.

AZ seems to be the GOP's Minnesota. Only instead of the Iron Range, it's Maricopa keeping things in place

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only after the 2012 map is duplicated in a blowout scenario.

[Hammy]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

Clinton was only about a half point higher than Obama--the margin was only closer because of the large third party vote.

[The Other Castro]

Not counting Utah, Arizona and Texas had the largest trends among Republican states in 2016 toward Democrats. While Texas likely needs more time to flip, Arizona is getting closer and may just be ready in time.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

It was closer than North Carolina or Ohio.

[RINO Tom]

Not counting Utah, Arizona and Texas had the largest trends among Republican states in 2016 toward Democrats. While Texas likely needs more time to flip, Arizona is getting closer and may just be ready in time.

Trends can reverse themselves, ya know.

[Famous Mortimer]

A less religious, more immigration focused GOP is actually probably a better fit for Arizona than the pre-Trump GOP. I think it will stay Republican.

[TDAS04]

Yes.

[Webnicz]

Let's remember that the The dems came closer in AZ than in NC...with A LOT less resources. It was more of a battleground state than OH (by a lot) yet was given zero press coverage on election night. Let's also remember AZ was the third to last state to be called, 3 days after the election and I didn't hear any of CNN's pundits mention Arizona once on election night, they spent more time taking about OH which wasn't even a battleground.

If Clinton and company put the resources they had in OH into AZ instead it could have gotten interesting especially since Clinton had appeal with suburban voters as seen in Orange County. If dems target the east valley (CD6 area) they can win.

[Webnicz]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

Clinton was only about a half point higher than Obama--the margin was only closer because of the large third party vote.

Trump received 3 thousand less votes than Romney in maricopa county. Clinton received 100k more votes than Obama.
That's a heavy needle mover

[NOVA Green]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

Clinton was only about a half point higher than Obama--the margin was only closer because of the large third party vote.

Trump received 3 thousand less votes than Romney in maricopa county. Clinton received 100k more votes than Obama.
That's a heavy needle mover

Dang! That puts it into much more perspective than simply looking at margin swings!!!

Key question is how many of these were new first time voters in Arizona, how many were Pubs that went Dem, and how many were Obama '08/Romney '12/ Trump '16 voters?

[Xing]

It's definitely a battleground, but Maricopa is the kind of place where Trump could improve on his 2016 numbers, so I certainly wouldn't call AZ a tipping point state or say it's a more likely pick-up than WI/MI/PA. If Trump loses AZ, he's likely already lost the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see about 2018 has to say about it, AZ and NC are trending blue.

[HomestarSB9]

Yes, it is.

Donnie only won the state by about 4%, and the demographics in the state are in place for there to be a Democrat winning the state.

[Hammy]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

Clinton was only about a half point higher than Obama--the margin was only closer because of the large third party vote.

Clinton was hardly more popular than Trump though, and Democrats in Maricopa ran ahead of her in many instances. Penzone by 160,000 votes! There were a ton of reluctant Trump voters left on the table who are persuadable for Democrats in 2018 and 2020. Question is, do they just throw their hands up and say "it's no use, no Democrat has ever gotten more than 45%!" or do they bust balls and try to actually pursue gettable voters? Knowing Democrats though, I'll go with the former until I see otherwise.

I'm not by any stretch saying the Dems should abandon the state, and they'll probably have more success at the state level--I'm just saying I don't see it happening as the electorate there doesn't seem that flexible at the moment.

[RINO Tom]

It's "realistic," but I think it's a harder pickup than some states that were "less close."

[Alabama_Indy10]

Muh demographics

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

AZ is a realistic pickup for a Dem Pres in 2020, regardless of 3rd Party Votes.

Let's face it, HRC almost won the State despite her massive unfav ratings...

It would be difficult to envision a generic Dem performing worse against Trump in 2020 than HRC in '16.

Clinton was only about a half point higher than Obama--the margin was only closer because of the large third party vote.

Implying that there wasn't a significant amount of left-leaning voters who voted for Johnson(and Stein improved on her 2012 performance by a decent amount too).

[The Mikado]

I absolutely think so. I think Arizona going Dem is significantly more likely than Iowa going Dem, for example.

[TML]

I think AZ is trending D, but I still consider it lean R at this moment. If I were to advise the Democratic party, I'd say that they should not invest heavily in this state unless their candidate is on track to win at least 360 EVs.

[mgop]

arizona is state where democrats can't even win senate seat against warmonger like mccain. so no, they not gonna vote democrat any time soon.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

arizona is state where democrats can't even win senate seat against warmonger like mccain. so no, they not gonna vote democrat any time soon.

McCain was a popular incumbent senator who managed 53.7% of the vote.