Trump primaries as presumptive nominee
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  Trump primaries as presumptive nominee
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jman123
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« on: June 25, 2017, 03:29:10 PM »
« edited: June 25, 2017, 03:32:26 PM by jman123 »

I've been studying candidate performances after they drop out in primaries and I was struck by how relatively low Trump received votes percentage wise after his opponents dropped out. Nebraska he got 61%  64% in Oregon and in June he only got 68% in South Dakota.  

For a candidate running unopposed those are somewhat low numbers. What can explain this phenomenon?
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #1 on: June 27, 2017, 10:11:13 PM »

For the May primaries I'm guessing early votes, mostly. Also could be some (read: a lot) of protest voters going for Cruz or Kasich anyway since the nomination was uncontested.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2017, 10:44:56 PM »

I can't really speak for the Republican Primaries in Nebraska and South Dakota, however I have a few opinions when it comes to the Oregon Primary.

Trump was extremely disliked among the Republican electorate in Metro Portland, that although it has increasingly shifted heavily Democratic, still accounts for a large % of statewide Republican votes in Oregon in any Primary.

Additionally, once you take into account the 70% of Republican Primary voters outside of Metro, you still see significant support for Kasich throughout the Willamette Valley, especially in the Cities (Salem, Albany, Corvallis, Eugene) and also the dual challenge from Cruz in a state where the Republican Party was hijacked several decades back by evangelical conservatives (Part of the reason why Oregon votes Democrat on virtually all statewide elections to present) who ran extremely strong within the Willamette Valley.

Heck--- Trump only got 65% in Linn County, which in theory should have been the county in the Valley where he should have clocked it (Blue Collar WWC ground zero) and where I currently live.

No question that Southern and most of Eastern Oregon was solid Trump Country in the Primaries (Although interestingly enough his numbers weren't so hot in the Mormon Belt of Eastern Oregon).

The statement regarding early voting with Oregon's Vote-by-Mail system is an interesting argument, but is essentially only skin deep, since the majority of election ballots are actually cast within a week of the election (Outside of heavily rural counties).

No the reason that Trump performed so poorly within the Republican Primaries in Oregon was simply that he was a bad fit for the wishes of a large number of Republican Voters throughout the State.... (This includes friends and family members that are registered Republicans)
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2017, 08:04:07 AM »

No question that Southern and most of Eastern Oregon was solid Trump Country in the Primaries (Although interestingly enough his numbers weren't so hot in the Mormon Belt of Eastern Oregon).
Trump struggled with Mormons throughout the primary. They didn't like his anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim message, which reminded them of their own history of persecution.
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