Which "red" state gubernatorial races do Democrats have a chance of flipping?

[Xing]

The only ones that I'd say are completely out of reach are AL, AR, ID, SD, TN, TX, and WY.

[Mr. Smith]

WI, GA, AZ, MI, and KS.

Can't trust FL Dems not to blow it. Wisconsin and Georgia are the steepest, but not entirely out of play.

[Kingpoleon]

Michigan
Florida
Kansas
Arizona
Georgia
Wisconsin
Iowa
Ohio
Alabama
Nebraska
Texas
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
South Dakota


Arkansas/Idaho/Wyoming

[I’m not Stu]

FL, AZ, GA, WI, OH, IA, MI, and KS.

[PragmaticPopulist]

From most to least likely:

Michigan
Florida
Iowa (Branstad fatigue?)
Ohio
Kansas (Brownback fatigue!)
Wisconsin (Walker Fatigue?)
Georgia
Arizona
Oklahoma (Fallin fatigue)
Tennessee
South Carolina
Alabama (if Roy Moore is the R nominee, while Cobb is the D, R victory isn't guaranteed)
Idaho
South Dakota
Wyoming
Texas
Arkansas
Nebraska

[JMT]

Dems could conceivably flip Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas (only because Brownback is so unpopular), Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The rest of the options in the poll would be a waste of resources for Democrats.

[TheSaint250]

Dems could conceivably flip Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas (only because Brownback is so unpopular), Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The rest of the options in the poll would be a waste of resources for Democrats.

Gubernatorial flips often come in unlikely places

John Cox for CA governor?

[TheSaint250]

Dems could conceivably flip Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas (only because Brownback is so unpopular), Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The rest of the options in the poll would be a waste of resources for Democrats.

Gubernatorial flips often come in unlikely places

John Cox for CA governor?

No, but it wouldn't surprise me if California elected a Republican Governor at spme point in the next two decades if the legislature runs too wild

That would be quite interesting to see.

[_]

Dems could conceivably flip Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas (only because Brownback is so unpopular), Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The rest of the options in the poll would be a waste of resources for Democrats.

Gubernatorial flips often come in unlikely places

John Cox for CA governor?

No, but it wouldn't surprise me if California elected a Republican Governor at spme point in the next two decades if the legislature runs too wild

If CA Gov flips R any time in the next 30 years I'll be shocked.  I view CA as gone for Rs for at least the next 3 decades.

[Ye We Can]

Dems could conceivably flip Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas (only because Brownback is so unpopular), Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The rest of the options in the poll would be a waste of resources for Democrats.

Gubernatorial flips often come in unlikely places

John Cox for CA governor?

No, but it wouldn't surprise me if California elected a Republican Governor at spme point in the next two decades if the legislature runs too wild

If CA Gov flips R any time in the next 30 years I'll be shocked.  I view CA as gone for Rs for at least the next 3 decades.

I think it's inevitable that eventually California will end up in an R V R runoff because of its electoral system backfiring.

[Rjjr77]

I dont think Ohio is flippable, not with the democrats current field. Unless a big upset happens in the primary (Taylor or more laughably renacci)

[McGovernForPrez]

Dems could conceivably flip Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas (only because Brownback is so unpopular), Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The rest of the options in the poll would be a waste of resources for Democrats.

Gubernatorial flips often come in unlikely places

John Cox for CA governor?

No, but it wouldn't surprise me if California elected a Republican Governor at spme point in the next two decades if the legislature runs too wild

If CA Gov flips R any time in the next 30 years I'll be shocked.  I view CA as gone for Rs for at least the next 3 decades.

I think you underestimate the tolerance that wealthy "liberals" have for moderate republicans.

[Coraxion]

I think it's inevitable that eventually California will end up in an R V R runoff because of its electoral system backfiring.

[RINO Tom]

I dont think Ohio is flippable, not with the democrats current field. Unless a big upset happens in the primary (Taylor or more laughably renacci)

I think Ohio (on the STATE level) is a uniquely Republican advantage in that the GOP has swayed a lot of formerly Democratic-leaning independents while still keeping its traditional coalition in tact (Trump dominated Whites with a degree, the upper income brackets and the suburban vote in OH).

[Lechasseur]

Technically, I suppose the Democrats have a chance in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. But I think bar an absolute Democratic landslide in the midterms, out of these states I suspect the only ones where flipping the state would be all that likely would be Florida, Iowa, Kansas (due to Brownback's unpopularity) and Michigan. I'd be fairly surprised if any of the others flipped from R to D in 2018.

[Del Tachi]

Honestly, I think Florida and Michigan are the only two that Democrats have realistic chances of winning. 

Even at that, I'd give the GOP a slight edge in FL and the Dems a very slight edge in MI.

[The_Doctor]

 Arizona
 Florida
 Georgia
 Iowa
 Kansas
 Michigan
 Ohio
 Oklahoma
 Wisconsin

Note: chance, not guarantee.  I'd classify Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma in the lean GOP bucket. I'd classify Florida, Ohio, Michigan as tossups. I'd classify the rest as lean D. Florida is most interesting because they haven't elected a Democrat in 20 years but have come very close to in the last two cycles. Michigan usually rotates governors and the Flint crisis may flip it.

Kansas is the most obvious gimme surprisingly, given Brownback's ratings. Illinois is a red state gubernatorially that has a lean D feel to it.

I think the Democrats are far more on favorable ground in the gubernatorial seats than Senate seats.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Michigan, Florida, and Arizona are very plausible, maybe likely. Kansas, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia seem like long-shots but are far from impossible.

[windjammer]

I have a good feeling for AZ.

[Orser67]

The last time these seats were up, Republicans picked up three blue states (Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois) during an Obama mid-term. I think people are underestimating how bad this mid-term could get for Republicans, even in reddish states like Ohio and Iowa.