Rob Portman of 2018

[Vosem]

^Tester isn't going to be the next Rob Portman. Unlike OH in 2015/2016, most people don't even consider the MT Senate race competitive right now and believe he is heavily favored (or safe). While it's true that there is no obvious candidate yet, I think the party will field a competent Republican in the end (hopefully Rosendale or Olszewski). MT is way too polarized for Tester to win easily, and he doesn't have as much crossover appeal as Heitkamp and Manchin.

Actually, I think the party that wins the OH Senate race will also win in MT, but who knows.

I agree in the sense that I think ultimately Tester and Brown will both be reelected (the latter mainly due to usual anti-presidential midterm effects), but I'm also pretty confident that Mandel is the best recruit the NRSC has found this cycle and in general is one of the strongest candidates on the (pretty wide) OHGOP bench, who Democrats have been swinging at unsuccessfully for most of a decade. Which makes this forum's continued belief that he's terrible seem very, very odd.

Definitely most people consider a Democrat in a Trump+24 state vulnerable. Whether that's correct or not is the point of this thread.

I always though Kasich was the strongest candidate? Isn't his approval rating really high over there?

Certainly, but Kasich's not really interested in anything less than President at this point. I'm comparing Mandel to the other Republican Senate candidates recruited (like Evan Jenkins or the several random congresscritters in Indiana they're trying to sweep aside in favor of Curtis Hill).

[Santander]

Rubio = Baldwin

[mcmikk]

I thought about Baldwin, but I actually think Ohio's other Senator, Brown, fits the bill better. I doubt he'll win by anything like 21%, but a lot of Republicans are hyping up Mandel, who, like Strickland, lost a statewide race previously (to Brown himself, no less.) Similar to how 2015 polls had Strickland ahead, the one poll we have puts Mandel ahead of Brown. I can see this race following a similar trajectory: It will look very competitive early on, with polls even giving Mandel a slight advantage, but Mandel proves to be a weak candidate, and as the election approaches, it becomes less competitive.

I agree with this. To me Mandel just looks like a weak candidate. Losing a Senate race 6 years earlier to the same guy he's trying to challenge now isn't going to look good on him ie. "The people of Ohio already rejected Josh and they'll reject him again" or something like that.(see: Russ Feingold in 2016) He also seems to be a huge Trump loyalist. Something tells me thats the going to be the nail in his coffin in 2018 if things go like people think they are going to go.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Using examples between 2012, 2014, and 2016 for the 10 Trump state Democrats, Kaine, Klobuchar, Heller, and Flake:

Manchin: Kay Hagan
Heitkamp: Mary Landrieu
Donnelly: Mark Kirk
McCaskill: Mark Pryor
Tester: Joe Manchin 2012
Brown: Kelly Ayotte
Nelson: Rob Portman
Baldwin: Ron Johnson (as much as they would both hate the comparison, survives as an underdog on Election Day)
Casey: Himself in 2012 or Michael Bennet
Stabenow: Mark Warner
Klobuchar: John McCain (challenging party just doesn't have enough resources to go all-in)
Kaine: Chuck Grassley

Flake: Roy Blunt
Heller: Jeanne Shaheen

Net Gain: R+5

[SATW]

Tammy Baldwin will be the Portman of 2018. I don't see any decent GOP candidate running against her.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My gut tells me Heitkamp could possibly pull off a 10+ point win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tammy Baldwin will be the Portman of 2018. I don't see any decent GOP candidate running against her.

That alone means she can't be the Portman of 2018.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Probably Brown. The race looks like a tossup right now, though rematches don't typically go well for the loser of round 1.

The next most similar would probably be Stabenow, but she looks safer than Portman looked at this point before the 2016 election.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tammy Baldwin will be the Portman of 2018. I don't see any decent GOP candidate running against her.

That alone means she can't be the Portman of 2018.

Yes, it would have to be someone who is considered very vulnerable by both parties (like Portman was in 2015 and 2016). Most pundits and Democrats think Baldwin, Tester, Brown, etc. are heavily favored and will win reelection easily, but the same is not true of Heidi Heitkamp. So like I said... ND (or maybe WV, to a lesser extent) is really the only plausible answer here IMO.

Also, Cramer, Campbell and the rest of the ND GOP are even more overrated than Strickland, and Heitkamp is at least as strong an incumbent as Rob Portman.

Who thinks Tester's a lock?  The consensus seems to be that he's slightly favored from what I've seen.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If you haven't gotten the gist yet, TN Volunteer takes any argument that remotely disagrees with him and presents it to the extreme. Ie--most Democrats and pundits think Brown, Tester and Baldwin are SLIGHTLY favored at this point. He then presents it as they all think those Senators are HEAVILY favored.

I don't know anyone who thinks Tester will win by less than 5, and there are even several Republicans who think he will win fairly easily (say, 7-9 points), so this isn't intended to be a criticism of Democrats. To me, this doesn't sound like they think he's only "slightly" favored. Since Fox announced that he won't seek this Senate seat, the consensus seems to be that Tester will win by 7-10 points. I disagree with this, but this thread isn't about my opinion.

Most people think Mandel is a pretty awful candidate and that Brown should beat him, and Baldwin doesn't even have an opponent yet. We can debate about the meaning of "slightly" and "heavily" until the cows come home, but generally most people would agree that these races are much closer to Lean or Likely D than Tilt D. Thanks for playing, though.

I haven't met anyone who thinks Tester will win by more than 5% if he's re-elected.

[Cynthia]

I'm going with McCaskill because flawless beautiful 3>