Predict the Senate vote on the "motion to proceed" on AHCA

[Mr. Morden]

First step in the Senate process is a "motion to proceed" on debate on the AHCA.  Predict how every Senator will vote on that.  (Though this of course assumes that McConnell doesn't simply pull it from the floor if he discovers that he doesn't have the votes.)

[The Other Castro]

It depends on what McConnell's tactic is. If he holds a vote as is, I think it will fail. McConnell might want it to fail to just be done with it, or might delay in order to try to help its passage. A key difference here is McConnell is incredibly tactical, while Paul Ryan is more in the business of getting a win. Right now, I do not believe they will vote on the motion to proceed (at least as scheduled), but if they do, I predict 47-53 failure.

[The Mikado]

If the bill goes forward unamended? Something like 52-48 against.

McConnell needs to make changes to buy out some holdouts. Murkowski, being a Murkowski, will need a Polar Payout, a big chunk of cash for especially-hard-hit Alaska.

[NewYorkExpress]

They won't actually vote, but If they do, I predict a 46-54 failure (Flake, Cruz, Heller, Paul, Cassidy, Collins, Moore Capito, McCain and Murkowski all voting against the motion to proceed).

[Shadows]

52-48 or 51-49 with Rand Paul against it at best. Every GOP person will support this & if needed vote No on the final vote like Collins & Murkowski did on Devos !

[Horus]

52-48 or 51-49 with Rand Paul against it at best. Every GOP person will support this & if needed vote No on the final vote like Collins & Murkowski did on Devos !

Obvious answer. They're going to pass this.

[The Mikado]

And...

Phil Mattingly‏
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Behind closed doors, Leader McConnell has told his conference he will delay the health care vote - wants to give them time to get to yes.

[The Mikado]

This is a big deal. After all McConnell's talk about wanting this done this week, he's delaying until the week of July 10th at the earliest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a big deal. After all McConnell's talk about wanting this done this week, he's delaying until the week of July 10th at the earliest.

A big deal in what way? Good news because the bill is facing more opposition than planned, or bad news because it shows McConnell really wants it to pass?

[The Mikado]

This is a big deal. After all McConnell's talk about wanting this done this week, he's delaying until the week of July 10th at the earliest.

A big deal in what way? Good news because the bill is facing more opposition than planned, or bad news because it shows McConnell really wants it to pass?

Both, I guess...?

Between that and this:

Senator Rand Paul‏
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Just came from WH. @realDonaldTrump is open to making bill better. Is Senate leadership?


Sounds like the White House is open to having the Senate start from scratch and rewrite the bill to address some dissident Senators' complaints. If they're catering to Rand Paul, it means that they've already written off Heller and Collins, but that's a dangerous game because they can't lose anyone else.

By the way, I have a hunch, based on a preexisting pattern, that Senate Bill 2.0 will come back with a scoring saying that 21 million Americans will lose insurance. If House Bill 1 said 24 million, House Bill 2 said 23 million, and Senate Bill 1 said 22 million, 21 million seems a safe prediction for this new draft.

[Antonio the Sixth]

By the way, I have a hunch, based on a preexisting pattern, that Senate Bill 2.0 will come back with a scoring saying that 21 million Americans will lose insurance. If House Bill 1 said 24 million, House Bill 2 said 23 million, and Senate Bill 1 said 22 million, 21 million seems a safe prediction for this new draft.

So all we have to do it get them to rewrite it 21 more times...

[Yank2133]

This is a big deal. After all McConnell's talk about wanting this done this week, he's delaying until the week of July 10th at the earliest.

A big deal in what way? Good news because the bill is facing more opposition than planned, or bad news because it shows McConnell really wants it to pass?

There is some speculation that the WH will take over negotiations. If that is true, then this thing isn't going to pass.

[Person Man]

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

If the Republican High Command is just playing everyone and they could have really have passed this yesterday but are trying to impress upon everyone that they have these amazing people skills by talking to everyone and give the perception that they are totally in charge no matter what, when does this pass the Senare, when does this thing get signed into law? By the end of the Month? Summer?

And if they are really having issues?

Eventually, they will have to prepare for the elections. We are about a third way there.

By this time, last time, we had a stimulus and had passed one house with HC..it wasn't until December we had gotten to the point there was something thart passed Congress and the Bill wasn't signed until March. At that point, Card Check and Cap and Trade didn't have enough time.
Didn't Bush have Taxes by now and was moving on to Education? When he got" reelected" in 2002, he did  Iraq, Part D, and Religion. And it wasn't until Schaivo and Social Security when his agenda stalled.

[The Mikado]

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

They need to pass a budget by September 30th, so if Health Care takes up all of July and the budget takes up September, they'd need to push taxes into late 2017 or 2018.

[The Mikado]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

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McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

[Yank2133]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

The thing is senators like Collins and Heller would prefer this outcome.

[Person Man]

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

They need to pass a budget by September 30th, so if Health Care takes up all of July and the budget takes up September, they'd need to push taxes into late 2017 or 2018.

At either  rate, Healthcare needs to be done before the budget and if its not done by then, they will have to choose?

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

What would they be accused of being if they did that?

[GeorgiaModerate]

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

They need to pass a budget by September 30th, so if Health Care takes up all of July and the budget takes up September, they'd need to push taxes into late 2017 or 2018.

At either  rate, Healthcare needs to be done before the budget and if its not done by then, they will have to choose?

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

What would they be accused of being if they did that?

Statesmen?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

I guess they got tired of all that winning Trump promised them, so they want to share the win (blame).

[Person Man]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

The thing is senators like Collins and Heller would prefer this outcome.

I think Trump is just trying to pass with just the TEA party people and have Pence vote...provided Murkowski and Portman don't defect.

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

They need to pass a budget by September 30th, so if Health Care takes up all of July and the budget takes up September, they'd need to push taxes into late 2017 or 2018.

At either  rate, Healthcare needs to be done before the budget and if its not done by then, they will have to choose?

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Mitch McConnell playing his trump card against Trump and rebel Senators:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

McConnell is threatening the most dire threat he can imagine: compromise and cooperation with Democrats.

What would they be accused of being if they did that?

Statesmen?

That's what they would be. Tgey would be called something.... shorter.

[Yank2133]

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This isn't possible IMO.

GOP moderates are cowards, but there is a breaking point when it comes to how conservative this bill can be to pass.

[Mr. Morden]

At this rate, how much time do they have to do Taxes or anything else?

They need to pass a budget by September 30th, so if Health Care takes up all of July and the budget takes up September, they'd need to push taxes into late 2017 or 2018.

At either  rate, Healthcare needs to be done before the budget and if its not done by then, they will have to choose?

As Ed Kilgore explains here:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/06/republicans-may-have-plan-b-if-their-health-care-bill-fails.html

there's a possible fallback option, which would be to do "health reform" as part of the budget.  After all, the "Obamacare repeal" bill that the Senate is considering isn't really Obamacare repeal.  It's mostly a big Medicaid cut and tax cut.  But they could always just abandon that in its current form, and roll it into the budget:

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[Person Man]

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This isn't possible IMO.

GOP moderates are cowards, but there is a breaking point when it comes to how conservative this bill can be to pass.

And you think that Trump going after Paul would uncuck the middle?

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn't possible IMO.

GOP moderates are cowards, but there is a breaking point when it comes to how conservative this bill can be to pass.

And you think that Trump going after Paul would uncuck the middle?

I think Trump is a clown and just says anything that will get him support in the moment. He has no clue wtf he is doing.

[Person Man]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn't possible IMO.

GOP moderates are cowards, but there is a breaking point when it comes to how conservative this bill can be to pass.

And you think that Trump going after Paul would uncuck the middle?

I think Trump is a clown and just says anything that will get him support in the moment. He has no clue wtf he is doing.

Having tge WH take over the negotiation does reek of 1993.