How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018?
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  How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018?
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Poll
Question: Republican representing TX-32
#1
Lock-solid reelection
 
#2
Could lose, but it would take a near-miracle
 
#3
Losing is a real possiblity, but it will depend on quality of Dem campaign
 
#4
Sessions is favored for reelection, but it'll be close
 
#5
Pure tossup
 
#6
Sessions is an underdog
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: How safe is Pete Sessions in 2018?  (Read 3291 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #25 on: June 27, 2017, 08:54:37 AM »

It's definitely less Republican than GA-06, though entrenched might be enough to mitigate that. If 2018 is a true Democratic wave though, I can see entrenched incumbents going down. Let's not forget how entrenched Democratic incumbents went down in 2010, like Rick Boucher in VA-09, Ike Shelton in MO-04, and Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL. Pomeroy had been in the house for 17 years, and it was likely his vote for the ACA that got him defeated. The other two didn't vote for it, IIRC, and still lost.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #26 on: June 27, 2017, 12:32:21 PM »

Sessions is seriously entrenched and will run well ahead of where the district's partisan lean would indicate, but he'd still be vulnerable in a wave against the right Democrat, especially if that Democrat is Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings.

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Sbane
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« Reply #27 on: June 27, 2017, 01:05:46 PM »

I think he will be able to survive 2018. The way he loses is not with massive swings against him in the rich "parks" cities (which is how Clinton won this district). It's going to be in places like Garland and Richardson with massive minority voter turnout to elect Democrats. I don't see that happening in 2018. And unfortunately for the Democrats, there are many other districts similar to this. I do believe it will be close but the Democrats will fall short, and with it taking back control of the house. 2020 is another issue though.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #28 on: July 29, 2018, 07:22:37 PM »

Pure Toss-Up,

I hope this guys loses! He blocks every marijuana measure from the house and obviously anti-cannabis.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #29 on: July 29, 2018, 07:26:49 PM »

Man have things changed, since 1 year ago I have moved this thing from Safe R to Tilt R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #30 on: July 29, 2018, 07:29:32 PM »

I'm not holding my breath.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: July 29, 2018, 08:54:47 PM »

Tilt R
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Nyvin
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« Reply #32 on: July 29, 2018, 09:01:19 PM »

TX-32 by education/race:

College White: 30.95%

Non-College White: 24.61%

College Non-White: 12.44%

Non-College Non-White:  32.00%

For a comparison here's VA-10's numbers with a much more vulnerable incumbent that Cook has rated as lean D:

College White: 36.60%

Non-College White: 27.99%

College Non-White: 17.73%

Non-College Non-White:  17.68%

TX-32 is less educated than VA-10, but also much more diverse.    It's still more educated than the nation as a whole.  Comstock can't survive simply because there's too many educated people in her district, while Sessions might be able to as long as the diversity of his district "in combination with the trend of educated whites away from the Republican Party" doesn't overwhelm him.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2018, 11:09:26 PM »

TX-32 by education/race:

College White: 30.95%

Non-College White: 24.61%

College Non-White: 12.44%

Non-College Non-White:  32.00%

For a comparison here's VA-10's numbers with a much more vulnerable incumbent that Cook has rated as lean D:

College White: 36.60%

Non-College White: 27.99%

College Non-White: 17.73%

Non-College Non-White:  17.68%

TX-32 is less educated than VA-10, but also much more diverse.    It's still more educated than the nation as a whole.  Comstock can't survive simply because there's too many educated people in her district, while Sessions might be able to as long as the diversity of his district "in combination with the trend of educated whites away from the Republican Party" doesn't overwhelm him.

Its more a factor of the fact Minorities turn out less - particularly Hispanics. So while on paper Comstock's demographics are better, TX-32 has more GOP friendly electorate.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #34 on: July 29, 2018, 11:16:56 PM »

TX-32 by education/race:

College White: 30.95%

Non-College White: 24.61%

College Non-White: 12.44%

Non-College Non-White:  32.00%

For a comparison here's VA-10's numbers with a much more vulnerable incumbent that Cook has rated as lean D:

College White: 36.60%

Non-College White: 27.99%

College Non-White: 17.73%

Non-College Non-White:  17.68%

TX-32 is less educated than VA-10, but also much more diverse.    It's still more educated than the nation as a whole.  Comstock can't survive simply because there's too many educated people in her district, while Sessions might be able to as long as the diversity of his district "in combination with the trend of educated whites away from the Republican Party" doesn't overwhelm him.

Its more a factor of the fact Minorities turn out less - particularly Hispanics. So while on paper Comstock's demographics are better, TX-32 has more GOP friendly electorate.

This and also white Texans are less friendly to the democrats than white Virginians.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #35 on: July 30, 2018, 12:47:12 AM »

Sessions is seriously entrenched and will run well ahead of where the district's partisan lean would indicate, but he'd still be vulnerable in a wave against the right Democrat, especially if that Democrat is Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings.



If we got rid of that last clause, that's more or less where we are. The question is just "Is Colin Allred that 'right Democrat?'"

I think Allred 100% could win. He's definitely giving Sessions his hardest race since 2004. I suspect that at the end of the day, he comes up 3-5 points short. We'll see, though.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #36 on: July 30, 2018, 10:58:42 AM »

Sessions is seriously entrenched and will run well ahead of where the district's partisan lean would indicate, but he'd still be vulnerable in a wave against the right Democrat, especially if that Democrat is Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings.



If we got rid of that last clause, that's more or less where we are. The question is just "Is Colin Allred that 'right Democrat?'"

I think Allred 100% could win. He's definitely giving Sessions his hardest race since 2004. I suspect that at the end of the day, he comes up 3-5 points short. We'll see, though.

I actually think Rawlings would edge out Sessions by a point or so.
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Politician
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« Reply #37 on: November 12, 2018, 05:54:21 PM »

With an incumbent running, this is even more safe than GA-6.  The same goes for Culberson and any of the other shockingly-close-in-2016 Texas districts.
Lol
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lfromnj
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« Reply #38 on: November 12, 2018, 06:00:28 PM »

With an incumbent running, this is even more safe than GA-6.  The same goes for Culberson and any of the other shockingly-close-in-2016 Texas districts.
Lol
I had it at Tilt D at the end but the margin he lost by was shocking. If you told someone when Romney was running that PETE SESSIONS would lose they would laugh. Its clear Beto definetely brought up Allreds margin. I think Beto might even have carried the district by double digits or close to that at the very least.
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