MA Dem Primary: Who will try and defeat Baker?

[Kingpoleon]

Probably the best recruitment for Democrats at the moment would be John Kerry. He's the only one I can see make this race a toss-up. Even if Trump is at 30% approval, Governor Baker is still headed for a relatively easy reelection. However, I'd be surprised if Kerry enters the political arena again.

There's no chance Kerry is gonna run. He's not even a potential recruit in my mind. I also think you highly overrated Baker. With Liz Warren on the ballot in a Trump midterm Dems here will have a really really high floor. At best this race is lean Republican. I keep saying this, but Bill Weld is not gonna happen again here, the conditions aren't right. Democrats have a floor of about 45%. If I had to order the candidates right now it'd go Massie>Warren>Gonzales imo.

I would say that Massie is very overrated.

[Brittain33]

I was polled by the Baker reelection campaign last night. The Dems they asked about were Katherine Clark, Seth Moulton, Marty Walsh, Elizabeth Warren, and Maura Healey.

There's been no suggestion that either Walsh or Warren would trade their current jobs for a run at the governorship.

They tested lots of messaging for and against Baker.

[McGovernForPrez]

I was polled by the Baker reelection campaign last night. The Dems they asked about were Katherine Clark, Seth Moulton, Marty Walsh, Elizabeth Warren, and Maura Healey.

There's been no suggestion that either Walsh or Warren would trade their current jobs for a run at the governorship.

They tested lots of messaging for and against Baker.

All of those make sense except Katherine Clark to me. I'm surprised they didn't ask about Joe Kennedy III if they were gonna bother to ask about Clark.

[McGovernForPrez]

Probably the best recruitment for Democrats at the moment would be John Kerry. He's the only one I can see make this race a toss-up. Even if Trump is at 30% approval, Governor Baker is still headed for a relatively easy reelection. However, I'd be surprised if Kerry enters the political arena again.

There's no chance Kerry is gonna run. He's not even a potential recruit in my mind. I also think you highly overrated Baker. With Liz Warren on the ballot in a Trump midterm Dems here will have a really really high floor. At best this race is lean Republican. I keep saying this, but Bill Weld is not gonna happen again here, the conditions aren't right. Democrats have a floor of about 45%. If I had to order the candidates right now it'd go Massie>Warren>Gonzales imo.

I would say that Massie is very overrated.

What makes you say Massie is overrated? Despite never holding office he does have experience with statewide campaigns here. Massie's message is a really good fit for MA liberals, which is who he needs turn out in order to win. I don't think trying to court the more moderate Baker Dems is an effective strategy, and that turnout will ultimately win this election. He's also a great compliment to Elizabeth Warren at the top of the ticket.

[Brittain33]

I was polled by the Baker reelection campaign last night. The Dems they asked about were Katherine Clark, Seth Moulton, Marty Walsh, Elizabeth Warren, and Maura Healey.

There's been no suggestion that either Walsh or Warren would trade their current jobs for a run at the governorship.

They tested lots of messaging for and against Baker.

All of those make sense except Katherine Clark to me. I'm surprised they didn't ask about Joe Kennedy III if they were gonna bother to ask about Clark.

OH OH OH! Yes, they asked about him as well.

[Kingpoleon]

I was polled by the Baker reelection campaign last night. The Dems they asked about were Katherine Clark, Seth Moulton, Marty Walsh, Elizabeth Warren, and Maura Healey.

There's been no suggestion that either Walsh or Warren would trade their current jobs for a run at the governorship.

They tested lots of messaging for and against Baker.

Walsh won't run - he's building up allies throughout the state.

[_]

I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

[_]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-ratings-changes/

Sabato moves MA-Gov to Likely R.

[Brittain33]

I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

He's uncharismatic, but that makes him seem authentic and no-drama. He stays out of national Republican politics and cultural battles. He does deals with the legislature. Even though he's made some harsh budget cuts, his personality makes him hard to caricature or demonize. Also, he's exceptionally tall.

[_]

I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

He's uncharismatic, but that makes him seem authentic and no-drama. He stays out of national Republican politics and cultural battles. He does deals with the legislature. Even though he's made some harsh budget cuts, his personality makes him hard to caricature or demonize. Also, he's exceptionally tall.

Alright, despite those budget cuts is there still a deficit? 

[Brittain33]

I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

He's uncharismatic, but that makes him seem authentic and no-drama. He stays out of national Republican politics and cultural battles. He does deals with the legislature. Even though he's made some harsh budget cuts, his personality makes him hard to caricature or demonize. Also, he's exceptionally tall.

Alright, despite those budget cuts is there still a deficit? 

I... think so? We seem to continually have surprise deficits here. Unlike Illinois or NJ, it's an annual occurrence rather than a structural problem that builds up over time.

[Badger]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

Setti Warren has no connection to the administration but he reminds everybody of Patrick in the way that they are somewhat similar with regards to policy and he's a Patrick 2.0. Somebody from Newtown or the surrounding areas whether it's Wellesley or other towns running on income inequality is a joke.

Honestly, this just comes across as racism.

Well, consider the source.

[Figueira]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

Setti Warren has no connection to the administration but he reminds everybody of Patrick in the way that they are somewhat similar with regards to policy and he's a Patrick 2.0. Somebody from Newtown or the surrounding areas whether it's Wellesley or other towns running on income inequality is a joke.

Honestly, this just comes across as racism.

Agreed. Honestly the current politician who reminds me the most of Patrick is Phil Murphy, who is white.

[DFL]

I wanted to ask MA Dems about Baker.  Why exactly is he so popular?  Has he gotten the budget to a surplus?  Is he good at working with the State Legislature?  A good dealmaker?  Personality?  Charisma?  What is it about him that makes him so good a Governor?

MN Dem not an MA Dem, but Baker is a Dropkick Murphy's fan and while I don't like their music it makes him seem 1000% more human so there's that

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Baker is safe. The only democrat who i think would have the edge over him is Joe Kennedy III. Got that name recognition, significant overperformance in his district when compared to presidential results, And young, charismatic, and decent looking. Make him run!

[BuckeyeNut]

Baker is safe. The only democrat who i think would have the edge over him is Joe Kennedy III. Got that name recognition, significant overperformance in his district when compared to presidential results, And young, charismatic, and decent looking. Make him run!

God no. Kennedy still wouldn't be guaranteed to win, and he's waiting on one of the Senators to retire.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Baker is safe. The only democrat who i think would have the edge over him is Joe Kennedy III. Got that name recognition, significant overperformance in his district when compared to presidential results, And young, charismatic, and decent looking. Make him run!

God no. Kennedy still wouldn't be guaranteed to win, and he's waiting on one of the Senators to retire.

Edge≠guaranteed win. On a sidenote, I don't think Kerry will run, but if he does, I think he would have the edge too.

[McGovernForPrez]

Setti Warren, with a running mate like Daniel F. Conley, Marty Walsh, or Juliette Kayyem, could probably get up to 44-46% if he does very well and it's a Democratic wave.

Only thing about Warren is that he might remind people of the disappointing Patrick administration. Also Newton might be the MA equivalent of the "coastal elite". To me expecting anybody from Newton to know how to deal with income inequality is a joke.

Setti Warren has no connection to Deval Patrick.

Setti Warren has no connection to the administration but he reminds everybody of Patrick in the way that they are somewhat similar with regards to policy and he's a Patrick 2.0. Somebody from Newtown or the surrounding areas whether it's Wellesley or other towns running on income inequality is a joke.

Honestly, this just comes across as racism.

Agreed. Honestly the current politician who reminds me the most of Patrick is Phil Murphy, who is white.

I'll admit my statement definitely might've had some racial bias in it. I will say however I thought Setti Warren was white for the longest time until went on to his website for Governor. I have some very biased opinions about Newton though. I was meh on him when I thought he was the white Mayor of Newton and when I found out he was black.

[McGovernForPrez]

Baker is safe. The only democrat who i think would have the edge over him is Joe Kennedy III. Got that name recognition, significant overperformance in his district when compared to presidential results, And young, charismatic, and decent looking. Make him run!

I don't think Baker is safe. He's in a solid position, but MA is naturally liberal and that can hurt him if he isn't careful. I do agree Joe Kennedy would be a strong candidate, but not a surefire win. If Kennedy was in the race I'd probably rate it toss up to tilt D. Without him though I see the race as somewhere between likely and lean R. There are a lot of national forces working against him and I could see that providing a win. Remember Warren is at the top of the ticket and that this a Trump midterm.

[MAINEiac4434]

Baker is safe. The only democrat who i think would have the edge over him is Joe Kennedy III. Got that name recognition, significant overperformance in his district when compared to presidential results, And young, charismatic, and decent looking. Make him run!

God no. Kennedy still wouldn't be guaranteed to win, and he's waiting on one of the Senators to retire.

Warren's seat is his when she resigns to become POTUS.

Baker is safe. The only democrat who i think would have the edge over him is Joe Kennedy III. Got that name recognition, significant overperformance in his district when compared to presidential results, And young, charismatic, and decent looking. Make him run!

I don't think Baker is safe. He's in a solid position, but MA is naturally liberal and that can hurt him if he isn't careful. I do agree Joe Kennedy would be a strong candidate, but not a surefire win. If Kennedy was in the race I'd probably rate it toss up to tilt D. Without him though I see the race as somewhere between likely and lean R. There are a lot of national forces working against him and I could see that providing a win. Remember Warren is at the top of the ticket and that this a Trump midterm.

Agreed with this. While Massachusetts has a strong tradition of moderate GOP governors, how many of them have been elected or reelected in negative GOP years, which is what 2018 will be? Mitt declined to run for reelection in 2006 because he knew he'd probably lose because the GOP just wasn't popular in Massachusetts in 2006. Granted, Baker is probably even more moderate than (Governor) Romney.

Baker is in an extremely strong position. But if Trump's approvals get even lower, and the Democrat nationalizes this race, anything could happen.

[Figueira]

Bizarrely, there is speculation that State Rep Paul Mark (D) might run for either this or Lieutenant Governor.

http://www.recorder.com/Mark-for-gov-12134709

[Figueira]

Bizarrely, there is speculation that State Rep Paul Mark (D) might run for either this or Lieutenant Governor.

http://www.recorder.com/Mark-for-gov-12134709

Nice. I'd support him for purely sectarian reasons, and I imagine that he might have a shot at winning the primary.

I would almost certainly vote for him (I've met him a few times and I helped out his campaign in 2010) but this just seems like a weird move since it would be kind of a longshot.