Perriello leads PAC to help VA Democrats take back House of Delegates in 2017

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/perriello-wealthy-donors-team-up-to-help-democrats-chase-seats-in-va-house/2017/06/28/63a9fa80-5c2d-11e7-9fc6-c7ef4bc58d13_story.html

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I love this man

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Enough Jason Kander fetishization.  This is who we need.

[Virginiá]

I doubt they win the majority this year, but hitting 45 seats may be doable if Northam has coattails.

They'll probably win the Virginia Senate in 2019 though. They only need like one seat, and there's four Republicans sitting in Clinton districts in that chamber

45 seats would be a pretty good performance if you ask me. Democrats haven't picked up 11 seats in a single election in over a century (putting aside their near-total power during the Solid South era). With Republicans relatively overextended from the Obama years being generous to them, and Trump hitting rock bottom in approvals in Virginia, it's not hard to see them get bled out in the HoD.

Overall, though, I think VA Democrats are probably a few more cycles + a fair map away from a reasonable ability to compete for and hold the HoD. Clinton did carry a bare majority of HoD districts, but that was also from a 5 point win in a presidential election year.

[SATW]

From an objective, non-partisan view: This is what a team player looks like. Dems need to make sure he stays on the political scene for a longtime.

[Lachi]

I doubt they win the majority this year, but hitting 45 seats may be doable if Northam has coattails.

They'll probably win the Virginia Senate in 2019 though. They only need like one seat, and there's four Republicans sitting in Clinton districts in that chamber

45 seats would be a pretty good performance if you ask me. Democrats haven't picked up 11 seats in a single election in over a century (putting aside their near-total power during the Solid South era). With Republicans relatively overextended from the Obama years being generous to them, and Trump hitting rock bottom in approvals in Virginia, it's not hard to see them get bled out in the HoD.

Overall, though, I think VA Democrats are probably a few more cycles + a fair map away from a reasonable ability to compete for and hold the HoD. Clinton did carry a bare majority of HoD districts, but that was also from a 5 point win in a presidential election year.

They picked up 12 in Kansas last year, didn't they?

[Adam Griffin]

I doubt they win the majority this year, but hitting 45 seats may be doable if Northam has coattails.

They'll probably win the Virginia Senate in 2019 though. They only need like one seat, and there's four Republicans sitting in Clinton districts in that chamber

45 seats would be a pretty good performance if you ask me. Democrats haven't picked up 11 seats in a single election in over a century (putting aside their near-total power during the Solid South era). With Republicans relatively overextended from the Obama years being generous to them, and Trump hitting rock bottom in approvals in Virginia, it's not hard to see them get bled out in the HoD.

Overall, though, I think VA Democrats are probably a few more cycles + a fair map away from a reasonable ability to compete for and hold the HoD. Clinton did carry a bare majority of HoD districts, but that was also from a 5 point win in a presidential election year.

They picked up 12 in Kansas last year, didn't they?

I'm sure Virginia meant Virginia.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'm sure Virginia meant Virginia.

I'm sure that Virginia is Virginia.

[Virginiá]

It's conceivable that Democrats can get the HoD into the mid-40's in 2017, and win both the Senate and House in 2019. It's not like Trump (or Pence) won't still be at the forefront of voters' minds then.

I just wonder what effect 2019's super low turnout would have. VA's gubernatorial off-off-year elections are actually on par with midterm turnout, but the legislative-only election years are incredibly low. I suppose that could be pretty beneficial if there is still a substantial enthusiasm gap.

But they would have to win the gubernatorial race in 2021 since Northam won't have much power over redistricting if he wins, if any.

My guess is that if Northam wins, then Republicans will definitely punt redistricting for all maps into 2022, regardless of what happens with legislative races (assuming they hold one chamber in 2021). They won't agree to fair maps, and last redistricting cycle showed them that even despite the state constitution saying maps must be drawn every 10 years (and not 11), that it won't be enforced anyway. In fact it doesn't seem like it allows mid-decade redistricting either, but they still tried pointless attempts to change the maps mid-decade anyhow.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I doubt Democrats will retake the house of Delegates this year. Seventeen seats seems like a bridge too far. Still, I can see Democrats making significant gains, and possibly taking a number of seats Trump narrowly won.

[heatcharger]

It's not impossible, but 45+ seats is a difficult feat. Turnout isn't really the problem, as its usually okay in gubernatorial years, but I honestly think it might be easier to get Romney-Clinton voters to go blue on the federal level than it is on the state level.

Just based on what I've seen in my area and in my district in particular, the incumbent Republicans running in Clinton districts are no pushovers and have been utilizing retail politics pretty well. That, combined with the fact that suburban NoVA is filled with moderate heroes that aren't partisan in local and state elections, many of them will survive a 3-5 point victory by Northam. I'm not as sure about the R-held seats in the Richmond area, but I suspect it's quite similar.

And it's quite difficult to forecast the 2019 elections. In theory, Democrats very well could flip the State Senate by defeating Dick Black and make more gains in the HoD, but turnout is usually pretty terrible, and who knows what Trump will be up to then.

As for Perriello, he clearly wants another shot in VA politics, but if he's gonna be a loyal foot soldier in the time being, I'm all for it. Good for him.

[KingSweden]

This is awesome! Good for him.

[Andy Hine]

I'm sure Virginia meant Virginia.

I'm sure that Virginia is Virginia.

GRAB HER BY THE VIRGINIA!!!

[smoltchanov]

40+ would be a very good result, 45+ - outstanding, 50+ - improbable.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

This is what Democrats need to do. Come together to win elections not in fight with each other and constantly fight between the two major factions in the party. Periello ran a progressive campaign against Northam and lost and instead of complaining about the results he is now working on ending the GOP majority in VA. More teamwork like this and democrats can really make gains in 2018.

[_]

Now if only we had someone like this instead of the Confederate.

Good man and it was a great primary to watch, very little fighting and he accepted the results with no anger, then he makes himself even better creating this PAC.  I hope he gets elected to Senator after Kaine or Warner retire, he'd make a great one.