Which of these results were "flukes"?

[GlobeSoc]

Except for Arizona or Texas, I don't expect these trends from 2016 to continue.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Michigan: Maybe a fluke, although there are strong republican trends here, I mean Kid Rock is leading a senate race here. Still i would credit trump's win to AA voters in Detroit not turning out for Hill-dog

Pennsylvania: Same as above only replace Detroit with Philly, not as much of a fluke though, since you can easily say Clinton winning Chester Co was a one off thing too

Wisconsin: Not a fluke, Trump won despite bleeding support in the WOW counties. Madison and Milwaukee are not enough for dems to win anymore

Iowa: Not a fluke. See the trend of the LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack. Moving on up. Iowa is going the way of Missouri

Ohio: Not a fluke. Trump by 9 is a solid win. Dems cant connect with anyone outside of Cleveland or Columbus now

Arizona: Not a fluke. Hispanic population has exploded and unless they start voting republican, i think AZ will be a swing state for the next few cycles

Texas: Fluke. Trump was horrendously bad for Texas. Especially in the Dallas and Houston areas, that said, he did make (minor) gains in the super-dem Rio Grande Valley

Maine: Not a fluke. Its rapidly trending republican. I'm in maine all the time and the people there are not the kind youd expect to be voting democrat save for the Portland Area and a few college towns.

RI: I dont go there too often but it is a world of different between Providence and the "outstate" RI is probably going to shift to a new coalition of minorities (providence is ridiculously hispanic now) and upscale whites on the coast for democrats. where as the republicans will take in middle and working class people in the smaller towns. See the town map from 2016. clinton won all the coastal towns, and trump won all the inland ones (save for post-industrial Woonsocket)

California: Not a fluke. California's gonna be 70% Dem by 2024

[maga2020]

Only flukes were Trump margins in Arizona and Texas, democrats barely gained anything, the margins were driven down by disgruntled republicans (aka coward nevertrumpers) voting for the libertarian, most will come back in 2020.

The Obama-Trump voters will not, immigration is key to they and they believe the same as Trump: mass illegal immigration is a huge threat to America's survival as nation.

[Keep cool-idge]

Michigan: Maybe a fluke, although there are strong republican trends here, I mean Kid Rock is leading a senate race here. Still i would credit trump's win to AA voters in Detroit not turning out for Hill-dog

Pennsylvania: Same as above only replace Detroit with Philly, not as much of a fluke though, since you can easily say Clinton winning Chester Co was a one off thing too

Wisconsin: Not a fluke, Trump won despite bleeding support in the WOW counties. Madison and Milwaukee are not enough for dems to win anymore

Iowa: Not a fluke. See the trend of the LA-AR-MO-IA-MN stack. Moving on up. Iowa is going the way of Missouri

Ohio: Not a fluke. Trump by 9 is a solid win. Dems cant connect with anyone outside of Cleveland or Columbus now

Arizona: Not a fluke. Hispanic population has exploded and unless they start voting republican, i think AZ will be a swing state for the next few cycles

Texas: Fluke. Trump was horrendously bad for Texas. Especially in the Dallas and Houston areas, that said, he did make (minor) gains in the super-dem Rio Grande Valley

Maine: Not a fluke. Its rapidly trending republican. I'm in maine all the time and the people there are not the kind youd expect to be voting democrat save for the Portland Area and a few college towns.

RI: I dont go there too often but it is a world of different between Providence and the "outstate" RI is probably going to shift to a new coalition of minorities (providence is ridiculously hispanic now) and upscale whites on the coast for democrats. where as the republicans will take in middle and working class people in the smaller towns. See the town map from 2016. clinton won all the coastal towns, and trump won all the inland ones (save for post-industrial Woonsocket)

California: Not a fluke. California's gonna be 70% Dem by 2024

I agree with everything said but you're wrong on Pennsylvania I have talked to Brandon from DDHQ about Pennsylvania I told him about a theory I have which is Pennsylvania was never a swing state think about this
From 1952-2012 voted republican only 6 times all in blow out landslide victorys for the republicans the state really didn't trend republicans till 2012

Yea the state was close in 1960 1968 1976 2000 2004 and 2012 but everyone of those elections it voted democrat not once did it voted for the losing GOP candidate plus 2016 was the first time since 1948 that Pennsylvania voted right of the popular vote.......

As for Michigan it was not a fluke but I think it's probably has a 40% chance of going democrat in 2020
All lot of it comes down to how 2018 pans out with the gubernatorial race and senate race

[Senator-elect Spark]

What constitutes a fluke?

[DPKdebator]

What constitutes a fluke?

Generally a fluke is considered a result that is "lucky" and a one-time thing that will never replicate itself (i.e. Obama winning Indiana in 2008).

[kyc0705]

There's no such thing as a "fluke." That word indicates that the result was a mistake or a random, unforeseeable outcome. Things happen. Sometimes they happen again, sometimes they don't. But everything occurs for a reason.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

There's no such thing as a "fluke." That word indicates that the result was a mistake or a random, unforeseeable outcome. Things happen. Sometimes they happen again, sometimes they don't. But everything occurs for a reason.

I would consider the following idea as a good litmus test for a "fluke":
If the election is repeated the next day and the winner remains the same, then the results weren't a "fluke".