What if... Ronald Reagan vs. Ted Kennedy, 1976

[A18]

Who wins? Maps?

[MaC]

This is supposing the girl who drown is not up through the campaign.  Teddy's fiery personality scares off a lot of voters while Reagan comes off as cordial and friendly, but strong.  The south starts to break a bit- Georgia is still the last bastion of the south and a few other states vote this way too.  The new England area becomes more Democratic, but it is also in transition.

[skybridge]

318-220

[TheWildCard]

318-220

How in the world does Reagan lose California? Remeber at the time California had been a republican stronghold since Eisenhower ran and only went Dem. in 1964 for obvious reasons.

[nini2287]

Reagan wins PV 54-44 and EV 389-149

[A18]

Oh, come on. Ted Kennedy does not win Georgia or Arkansas. Remember, Carter was southern, and it was his home state.

[opebo]

A tie:

[A18]

No way Kennedy does anywhere near that well.

[dazzleman]

This is a very interesting one.

Clearly, the political climate in 1980, when Reagan ran and won, was radically different than 1976.

In 1976 the country was still obsessed with Watergate and Vietnam, and it was only election of the second half of the Cold War that the Democrats won, having effectively gone over to the other side of the Cold War.

I'm not sure the country was ready for Reagan in 1976.  But I'm also not at all sure the country would have voted for Kennedy, regardless of who was running against him.  I think he stood a better chance though in 1976 than in the more conservative climate of 1980.  But of course, if he couldn't beat Carter in 1980, who could he beat?

I'm going to bet that Reagan would have won, but that it would have been relatively close.

[MaC]

A tie:

No way Kennedy does anywhere near that well.

hey now.  The Republican doesn't lose.  Give opebo a break, perhaps he's starting to understand Republicans CAN win elections. 

[ATFFL]

Any map that has Pennsylvania in red can be thrown right in the trash.  Even if Chappaquiddick does not become a campaign issue, they will remember it in PA, Kennedy will never visit PA, and Kennedy will lose the state.

[nini2287]

Oh, come on. Ted Kennedy does not win Georgia or Arkansas. Remember, Carter was southern, and it was his home state.

GA and AR were two of Carter's best states (maybe THE two best-don't feel like looking up) and I think Kennedy (D) would have squeaked out a victory there.

[A18]

Yeah. Because Carter was southern, like I just said. Without Carter, the south goes GOP by >60% margins.

[nini2287]

Yeah. Because Carter was southern, like I just said. Without Carter, the south goes GOP by >60% margins.

Compare it to the 1968 map where Wallace probably took more votes away from Humphrey than Nixon.  Nixon still only received aroud 30% of the votes in both states. 

[A18]

Compare it to the 1972 map where you had someone slightly to the right of Ted Kennedy (George McGovern) running against a Republican who appealed to southerners.

Reagan's call for lower taxes and reduced government spending appealed to Southern whites while alienating African Americans. Thus, he wouldn't have gotten the >70% margins Nixon got, but he'd still cream Kennedy.

[MaC]

still, the '76 election was a transitionary election to which the south turns around.  Not fully Republican yet, but it will be.  Given this, I have Kennedy winning some like Georgia which was the last Democratic bastion of the south.