Favorite recent post by the previous poster

[fhtagn]

This, because he has amazing taste in movies.
Mostly Big Fish is hands down the best and most underrated Tim Burton movies, and few seem to truly appreciate it.

Some of the others on his lists could use some rearranging though

Okay, here goes (but nowhere near the end of a list that could go a while):

LIVE ACTION:


Tim Burton

1. Big Fish
2. Batman
3. Ed Wood
4. Batman Returns
5. Beetlejuice


Alfred Hitchcock

1. Psycho
2. Rear Window
3. Shadow of a Doubt
4. North by Northwest
5. The Birds


Francis Ford Coppola

1. The Godfather, Part II
2. The Godfather
3. Apocalypse Now
4. The Outsiders
5. The Rainmaker



Stanley Kubrick

1. Dr. Strangelove
2. Full Metal Jacket
3. 2001
4. Lolita
5. Eyes Wide Shut

Robert Zemeckis

1. Who Framed Roger Rabbit
2. Forrest Gump
3. Back to the Future
4. Cast Away
5. Back to the Future, Part III


ANIMATION

Don Bluth

1. The Land Before Time
2. Secret of Nimh
3. All Dogs Go To Heaven
4. An American Tail
5. Anastasia


Hayao Miyazaki

1. Castle in the Sky
2. Princess Mononoke
3. My Neighbor Totoro
4. Spirited Away
5. Kiki's Delivery Service


John Musker & Ron Clements

1. The Princess and the Frog
2. Treasure Planet
3. Aladdin
4. The Great Mouse Detective
5. Moana

[TheSaint250]

Out of these, Mitt Romney, easily.

(Internally struggles because I actually like Gore)

[NOVA Green]

I believe also that a lot of the states where Johnson got over 5% were Bernie states, so a lot of protest voters were cast by the losers on both sides

[kyc0705]

No context:

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New Hampshire? Does it exist? Is it just Vermont upside down?

[TheSaint250]

As the song goes, "Nah to the ah to the no, no, no."

[Bidenworth2020]

me his 5th cod vte

[TDAS04]

nothing really, but I guess pick of meme

[DKrol]

Massive Freedom State.  It's hands-down the best state for wilderness.  The politics aren't great, but it could be worse.

[NOVA Green]

But its not a gendered role though!  Never has been (well, since the whole regeneration concept was invented... in 1966!), and now quite clearly never will be.  Your ludicrous comparison with James Bond (which is a gendered role - although I'm actually interested about how a James Bond film with a women lead would go) falls down purely because of that point.

I mean this is a level of closed mindedness about an always evolving TV series that's both very silly - but also expected considering who I'm talking to.

How can you say the doctor has never been a gendered role while James Bond has??? What about when he asked Clara if he was a good man? What about "The Husbands of River Song?" What about being the "mad man in a silly blue box?" Before Missy and that one Time Lord general there was nothing to suggest that Time Lord's weren't a specific gender, and over all those years the doctor was always a man. And no, comparisons to James Bond is not "ludicrous"... how were those two character's gender ever portrayed differently over all these years?

It's pretty clear from the 10-into-11 regeneration that The Doctor doesn't mind if he becomes a girl. Smith, while feeling his hair (substantially longer than Tennant's), exclaims, "I'm a girl? I'm a girl!" This proves two points: a) Changing genders must be fairly common for Time Lords, far more common than the TV series would suggest and, b) The Doctor doesn't mind the possibility of becoming a woman. What he was more concerned with was whether or not he was a ginger. Sadly, not.

[RFayette]

Actually drawing another Democratic district in Oregon is pretty easy. Oregon voted for Hillary by almost 11 points. OR-2 is a huge R vote sink. OR-4 is a very margin seat that Hillary won by like 0.1% (I think it might be the closest seat in the country) but has a strong incumbent and the Democrats could just boost it a bit by adding places like Ashland and Bend from OR-2 and shedding the Republican territory, and you have a seat that would be very hard to win for the Republicans even if DeFazio retires but would be about D+4 or so. That means in the remainder of Oregon Hillary would've won it by about 16-17 points, and thus could easily be chopped up so all the districts are at least in the teens margin of victory.

I'm not actually that convinced it would be easy to create another relatively Democratic district in Oregon given laws and precedents regarding how districts are created.

So let's start with the current population and then let's assume that population growth % by county/ cities within counties remains constant at 7/15-7/16 levels, and then let's annualize that growth rate out to 7/20.

The population of the State would be about 4,350,000 or roughly 725k per US-CD, assuming Oregon gains another House Seat.

The estimated population by County would look something like this:



Generally the rule in Oregon is that whenever possible, one needs to keep cities within one CD, try to observe county boundaries, especially for heavily rural counties, where the County seat is the center of government, and generally try to observe the whole concept "communities of interest". Additionally, you aren't supposed to be deliberately going and creating blatant partisan Gerrymandered districts.

So let's start with CD-02 as the "Republican Vote Sink"....

Basically the district is going to have to lose some real estate, that will have to end up elsewhere....

1.) You aren't going to be able to chop up Central Oregon (Crook/Deschuttes/Jefferson) without fundamentally separating well defined and understood communities of interest.... Trying to run a skinny district all the way out just to gobble up Bend likely wouldn't meet the Oregon criteria, unless you're also taking in large chunks of heavily Republican territory at the same time.

2.) So, this leaves us with 3 Counties and part of a 4th that are currently in CD-02, where we need to look to grab the extra 200k voters for the district. Hood River and Wasco in the far North could potentially be added into a district in Western Oregon, since there are some linkages between the bulk of the population along the Columbia River Gorge in Hood River and The Dalles and East Multnomah and Clackamas Counties.... The former is overwhelmingly Democratic, and the latter is an ancestral Democratic County with recent Republican leanings.  Then you have Jackson County in the South that has both some heavily Republican Areas, as well as some heavily Democratic communities. Either way the remainder of Josephine County (Grants Pass) will end up in CD-04 adding more Republican Votes.

3.) Jackson County will have to be split regardless, and if we need to give some back to CD-04, we may as well run a clean stretch over from Southern Josephine and grab Ashland, Phoenix, and Jacksonville, plus some Republican Rural areas along the Way....

4.) So now we can leave Wasco in CD-02 taking us up to 553k, meaning we need another 170k from Jackson, which conveniently happens to neatly take in the heavily Republican rural areas in the Eastern and Northern parts of the County as well as Medford.

5.) That should give us Hood River County to play with as part of district in the Portland Area, unless we want to keep it in reserve in case someone gets antsy about that being the only place East of the Cascades not in CD-02.

6.) CD-04--- So now we have a big problem, we've added some pretty solidly Dem turf from Ashland area, but we've also added some heavily Republican territory in Grants Pass, and out population is exceeding its limits. Fine--- let's get rid of the rest of Linn County and move that into another district, since part of it already is, and Mid-Valley areas are used to getting shifted around a little bit...

7.) So what to do with the rest of the State? Ok--- if you look at the population of the three core counties of Metro Portland, their combined population should account for about 1.9 Million by 2020 or 45% of the State Vote, not to mention some spare change from Exurbs around Newburg in Yamhill County. It's only fair that Metro Portland gets 3 CDs predominately located within the Metro area, and another CD that is predominately located in the Mid-Valley.

8.) How to "stretch" the Metro Portland vote in a way the dilutes the strong Democratic Votes, while simultaneously respecting precedent?

9.) It makes sense to split Multnomah into two halves--- West of the Willamette and East of the Willamette. This has been done before, and plus you have a County that will have somewhere around 850k people that will need to be split regardless.

10.) CD-03 would retain all of MultCo East of the River, which would give it a base of about 676k Population. To take the other 45k you would probably need to take in the existing Exurban parts of Clackamas already in the district (Happy Valley, Sandy, Estacada), but you're running out of population, and would need to move some heavily Republican rural areas into CD-05, in what is already a marginal district. I guess you might be able to offset by moving some of the Republican leaning exurbs above into CD-05 instead, but either way....

11.) CD-01 would have West Multnomah (170k), Columbia, Clatsop (92k), Tillamook (27k) for a base of 289k, leaving us with another 436k population.... Well this is pretty much all going to come out of Washington County, so we may as well take all of the rural areas, places like Forest Grove and such, throw in fast-growing Hillsboro (110k), a bunch of unincorporated areas West of Portland, etc

12.) CD-06--- Thinking Tigard and Beaverton would be the base (160k) along with another 42k in the SW portion of the County for 202k in Washington.... Add in Yamhill, Polk, Benton, and Lincoln and you have another 342k for 544k to date.... we still need another 200k Pop. I guess you could throw Linn County into the Mix and some rural parts of Marion.

13.) CD-05--- Would keep existing Democratic suburbs of Milwaukee, Lake Oswego, Gladstone, West Linn, and Uninc Areas around there, throw in Salem-Keizer, Woodborn, and all of the rural areas in Marion along the I-5 corridor, and you're still maintaining much of the district.

Here's a crude map of what that would look like--- haven't run the '16 GE Pres precinct numbers against this, but it looks like you would end up with a potential 5-1 Dem Congressional Delegation, albeit with 2 reachable Republican flip seats (CD-05 and CD-06), assuming that letting go of Linn combined with Ashland overpowering Grants Pass strengthens CD-04.

[Goldwater]

Scissors are Your Friend

[Kamala]

The word "liberal" is uncool, which of course is why I am willing to call myself a "liberal" but not a "progressive".

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

LABOR SWEEPS NEW ENGLAND IN SURPRISE LANDSLIDE
We've got results coming in from Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, signaling a massive turnover from former Liberal seats to Labor.

- In Kennebec, Labor's Chellie Pingree has been reelected
- In Aroostook, Labor's Troy Jackson has unseated incumbent Conservative Bruce Poliquin!
- In October Mountain, Labor's Richard Neal has been reelected
- In Worcester, Labor's Jim McGovern has been reelected
- In Merrimack-First Mills, Labor's Niki Tsongas has been reelected
- In Walden, Labor's Joe Kennedy III has been reelected
- In Harvard, Labor's Elizabeth Warren has won the seat vacated by retiring incumbent Labor's Ed Markey
- In Cape Ann, Labor's Seth Moulton has unseated incumbent Civic Union's Richard Tisei !
- In Bunker Hill, Labor's Mike Capuano has been reelected
- In Freedom Trail, Labor's Steven Lynch has been reelected
- In Cape Cod, Labor's Julian Cyr has unseated incumbent Civic Union's Scott Brown!
- In Sakonnet, Labor's David Cicilline has been reelected
- In Narragansett, Labor's James Langevin has unseated incumbent Civic Union's Allan Fung!
- In Hartford, Labor's John Larson has been reelected
- In Old Saybrook, Labor's Cathy Osten has unseated incumbent Civic Union's Joe Courtney!
- In New Haven, Labor's Rosa DeLauro has been reelected
- In Bridgeport, Labor's Bob Duff has unseated incumbent Civic Union's Jim Himes!
- In Housatonic, Labor's Chris Murphy has unseated incumbent Civic Union's Elizabeth Esty!

If it weren't for Sanders' defection to a new party, it would have been the first time in history all of New England was represented by Labor. In total, Labor gained NINE seats in New England, and technically lost one in Sanders. Regardless, this brings Labor's total gained seats to 16.

Right now, the standings are:
Labor - 60
Conservative - 37
Civic Union - 8
The Alignment - 7
NPSW - 2
Tim Kaine's Christian Democrats - 1
Too Close To Call - 9

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The O-AZ mafia.

[JustinTimeCuber]

I find it so odd that they legalized SSM only a few days after Germany, when in Malta divorce was totally illegal until 6 years ago
😃

[Kamala]

If I win this election, I will sponsor a bill requiring a new season of Quantum Leap to air on TV once again.
Peebs, I think you know who's better on this issue.

[Mr. Smith]

Go away Cuban. *massive eye roll*

This applies both to Mark and Cruz.

[Cactus Jack]

Crust first

[The Govanah Jake]

As a general rule, waving the colors of any oppressive regime is bad.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

The Year was 1917

[snip]

[TDAS04]

[Crumpets]

I dreamt that I got elected Governor of South Dakota in 2022, ending the GOP's 44-year-hold on that office, after unseating incumbent Governor Kristi Noem.

It started off with me obtaining the Democratic nomination because no one else ran for that.  I didn't think I had much of a chance against Noem, and I admitted that at my first public event.  Suddenly, South Dakota voters started appreciating my honesty.  Then I kept on coming across as some modest and decent outsider, with voters liking me more and more, causing the state GOP to become so petrified it couldn't fight back. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Writing cover letters like:

"Never has there been a candidate, with few exceptions — case of FDR, he solved a depression and a world war — who has more relevant experience and who has done more amazing things than what I’ve done. Believe me."

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

S**t

I hope when there's an opening and you'd have more time, you'd rejoin X.

[TDAS04]

Context:

Hubert Humphrey
Hillary Clinton
RFK
Estes Kefauver
Ralph Yarborough

Those are at the top of my head rn