When will Josh Mandel win an Ohio Senate seat?

[Suburbia]

The young Ohio Treasurer has been running for the U.S. Senate for Ohio since 2012. He lost a tough Senate election against Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012 under President Barack Obama's coattails in OH. He is running again in 2018 against Brown. Will he win in 2018? Does he run again in 2024 if he loses in 2018? Does he run in a special 2021 Senate seat if Brown is president or VP? Does he run in 2022 or 2028 if Sen. Rob Portman retires?

[Cactus Jack]

Never. He's an absolutely awful candidate, especially for a state that tends to prefer Republicans in the mold of Kasich and Portman on the state level, rather than those in the mold of Jim Jordan.

[Suburbia]

Never. He's an absolutely awful candidate, especially for a state that tends to prefer more moderate Republicans.

If he loses the OH GOP primary in 2018 again to Brown, he should run for a House seat or the governorship in the 2020s.

[BuckeyeNut]

Never. He's an absolutely awful candidate, especially for a state that tends to prefer Republicans in the mold of Kasich and Portman on the state level, rather than those in the mold of Jim Jordan.

That's changing. I am doubtful at this point he defeats Brown, but I could see him replacing Portman. The issue with the latter is Portman is probably going to run for re-elect in 2022, and by 2028, Mandel will hopefully have been out of politics for a decade.

 Unless he runs for some other statewide position in 2022.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Never

[Cynthia]

Never.

[SATW]

2018. Haters can hate, but Josh will persevere.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Never. Everyone hates Josh Mandel.

[Zioneer]

When he looks older than 12.

[UncleSam]

2018 or not until at least 2028 (and probably never). 2018 is his chance as the nomination is practically his and he has lost once already. If he loses then his next realistic chance would be to run for the house then governorship in 2022/2026 THEN senate but let's be real the odds of any of that happening are probably about 50% (house) / <10% (governorship) / <5% (senate) if he loses.

I happen to think he has a much better shot in 2018 than most on this forum but if he loses he will almost certainly never become a senator.

Just to trigger people though I will say I think Mandel has a better than 50/50 shot of being a senator come 2019.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully never. This dude is cray cray.

[SATW]

Haters keep hating! The Mandel will Handle it all!

[Vosem]

Mandel is a good candidate for Ohio, but I'm not sure Ohio is Republican enough to pull off a Republican gain in 2018. I'd expect it to swing towards him, though.

Hard to say when the next opportunity after 2018 will be, though. He does already have two statewide victories under his belt, but it would probably seem obsessive if he runs for this again in 2024 (on the other hand, John Neely Kennedy was elected to the Senate on his third attempt and second party; as was, amusingly enough, Bernie Sanders). I assume if he loses he'll run for a different statewide office in 2022.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mandel is a good candidate for Ohio, but I'm not sure Ohio is Republican enough to pull off a Republican gain in 2018. I'd expect it to swing towards him, though.

Hard to say when the next opportunity after 2018 will be, though. He does already have two statewide victories under his belt, but it would probably seem obsessive if he runs for this again in 2024 (on the other hand, John Neely Kennedy was elected to the Senate on his third attempt and second party; as was, amusingly enough, Bernie Sanders). I assume if he loses he'll run for a different statewide office in 2022.

Unless Democrats sweep the row offices, which they obviously won't, he's going to be in a tough fight to actually find something to get elected to in 2022. It's not like the current statewide Republicans like him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Haters keep hating! The Mandel will Handle it all!

Mandel doesn't rhyme with handle...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Haters keep hating! The Mandel will Handle it all!

He's a loser (literally), can you not do any better than nominating him? It's Ohio, surely you have a bench with people much better than Mandel the skinhead on it.

[Badger]

Mandel is a good candidate for Ohio, but I'm not sure Ohio is Republican enough to pull off a Republican gain in 2018. I'd expect it to swing towards him, though.

Hard to say when the next opportunity after 2018 will be, though. He does already have two statewide victories under his belt, but it would probably seem obsessive if he runs for this again in 2024 (on the other hand, John Neely Kennedy was elected to the Senate on his third attempt and second party; as was, amusingly enough, Bernie Sanders). I assume if he loses he'll run for a different statewide office in 2022.

Unless Democrats sweep the row offices, which they obviously won't, he's going to be in a tough fight to actually find something to get elected to in 2022. It's not like the current statewide Republicans like him.

This. He's out in 2018, and maybe has a shot in 2020 at remaining somewhat relevant depending on how gerrymandered the Congressional, State Senate, or State House seat his home in Beechwood falls into. He could probably garner enough local support to win there if it's a Republican seat. Otherwise he's waiting till 2022 to maybe try taking out any Democratic office-holders, though by then I suspect the statewide party will have had their fill of him, particularly compared to its ranks deep bench.

If he doesn't have a readily-winnable legislative seat to run for in 20, I wouldn't be surprised if he just cashed in and quit politics, or at least kept his powder dry until 22.

The only thing keeping me from not saying never is Mike DeWine.

[Rjjr77]

this will be it for senate is my guess, I could see him going and running for something else later.

[SATW]

Haters keep hating! The Mandel will Handle it all!

He's a loser (literally), can you not do any better than nominating him? It's Ohio, surely you have a bench with people much better than Mandel the skinhead on it.

He's Jewish, so not a skinhead.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Haters keep hating! The Mandel will Handle it all!

He's a loser (literally), can you not do any better than nominating him? It's Ohio, surely you have a bench with people much better than Mandel the skinhead on it.

He's Jewish, so not a skinhead.

Right, and Ben Carson is not a republican.

[Xing]

I'm guessing he won't.

[SATW]

Like I said, keep hatin' haters! Same haters putting down Manly Mandel are also putting down Bombastic Bob (Menendez).

Both FF's will prove bad atlas wrong!

[BuckeyeNut]

Like I said, keep hatin' haters! Same haters putting down Manly Mandel are also putting down Bombastic Bob (Menendez).

Both FF's will prove bad atlas wrong!

That you like Menendez explains a lot.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Like I said, keep hatin' haters! Same haters putting down Manly Mandel are also putting down Bombastic Bob (Menendez).

Both FF's will prove bad atlas wrong!

That you like Menendez explains a lot.

As an Ohioan, what are your thoughts strategically and ideologically on the senate race in 2018? You probably know more than me and some other random dude about this race.

[BuckeyeNut]

Like I said, keep hatin' haters! Same haters putting down Manly Mandel are also putting down Bombastic Bob (Menendez).

Both FF's will prove bad atlas wrong!

That you like Menendez explains a lot.

As an Ohioan, what are your thoughts strategically and ideologically on the senate race in 2018? You probably know more than me and some other random dude about this race.

Sherrod keeps getting good press, while Mandel isn't particularly well liked by anyone in the current ORP infrastructure -- he keeps having low-level scandals, for which the very heavily Republican state legislature keeps taking him to task, and he even drew out an independently wealthy businessman as a primary challenger. (Though, he's not been in the news much.)

Sherrod plays better is more conservative counties than other Democrats, and runs very well put together campaigns, but nothing can be taken for granted. Trump was going to win Ohio regardless of whether or not he won the Presidency, and if Clinton was in office, Sherrod would be in deep, deep dog sh*t. As it is now, I expect him to win. Whether or not it'll be closer than 2012, IDK.