Which election will Texas go dem?

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Unless a Texan like Castro runs and Trump is even more unpopular than he is now, I don't see it happening in 2020, or probably 2024. I would say 2028 or 2032 would be the most likely time where it would become a true swing state, but it will likely be at least a little competitive in 2020/2024.

[PoliticalShelter]

It depends whether you mean when a democrat will win Texas or when Texas's PVI moves left enough to the point where it is regarded as a "blue state".

The former can be done as soon as 2020, and will probably happen at some point in the 2020s or 2030s, the latter will definitely not happen in the 2020s and is unlikely to occur until at least the late 2030s, if not later.
There is a (small) possibility of it not happening in this century depending how the two party's coalitions go down.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

I think if Democrats nominate either a Hispanic or a Texan they can potentially win it or at least come close to winning it in 2024 only if they continue to make ground in the state in 2020. 

[Rookie Yinzer]

2028.

[MillennialModerate]

If Texas goes Dem, there will be a period similar to 68-92 where one party controls the White House. Would be a huge uphill climb for GOP.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

In 2024, after 8 years of an unpopular Trump, IF the Democrats nominate an Obama-'08 like figure.

[The Govanah Jake]

2024 with President Richard Cordray

[Strudelcutie4427]

Would say 2032. But if the new more liberal arrivals have kids that become more "Texan" and a new generation of hispanics becomes more blended with whites Texas may not go dem

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I don't think the long-term GOP path is Trumpism, so I will say that Texas will be a red state for the foreseeable future.  Maybe it could be competitive by the 2040s.

[libertpaulian]

The next election the Democrats win the White House. TX + GA + AZ will be a trifecta.

Would NC be included in this landslide?

[libertpaulian]

The next election the Democrats win the White House. TX + GA + AZ will be a trifecta.

Would NC be included in this landslide?

I'm not sure it would be a landslide.  This could all be happening pretty fast (GA and NC need more evidence, though): 

2024

Dem 51%
GOP 47%

If the Dems are winning all those states, I'd say they also win NH, ME, and MN.  Possibly even PA and OH.

[maga2020]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

[libertpaulian]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Depends on if those Texas whites are native Texans or transplants from the West Coast and Northeast.

[maga2020]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Depends on if those Texas whites are native Texans or transplants from the West Coast and Northeast.

If they are retirees fleeing California, NY and New England, the GOP is fine.

Demographics are destiny would suppose that Florida would already be a blue state now, yet, it has always voted to the right of the country, Obama won it by under 3% in a national landslide.

[libertpaulian]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Depends on if those Texas whites are native Texans or transplants from the West Coast and Northeast.

If they are retirees fleeing California, NY and New England, the GOP is fine.

Demographics are destiny would suppose that Florida would already be a blue state now, yet, it has always voted to the right of the country, Obama won it by under 3% in a national landslide.

Florida Hispanics are predominantly Cuban and Puerto Rican as opposed to Mexican.  Cubans are largely conservative, and Puerto Ricans are a swing bloc.  That's why Florida hasn't gone the way of Nevada yet.

[GGSETTER]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Depends on if those Texas whites are native Texans or transplants from the West Coast and Northeast.

If they are retirees fleeing California, NY and New England, the GOP is fine.

Demographics are destiny would suppose that Florida would already be a blue state now, yet, it has always voted to the right of the country, Obama won it by under 3% in a national landslide.

Florida Hispanics are predominantly Cuban and Puerto Rican as opposed to Mexican.  Cubans are largely conservative, and Puerto Ricans are a swing bloc.  That's why Florida hasn't gone the way of Nevada yet.

This Demographics is Destiny crap needs to be put down once and for all. It's a good theory but at this point its obvious to most people who follow politics that it's not true. The country has been getting more and more diverse these last 8 years yet it keeps getting more and more Republican. Also Nevada did not go Blue the last few years because of "Hispanics". It went Blue because of White People fleeing California and the Labor Unions around Vegas. It's the exact same thing that happened in Coloradonand Oregon.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Yeah, sure... a state that Trump only won by less than 4% against a historically unpopular Democratic candidate will never vote for a Democrat...

[GGSETTER]

Demographic voting shifts are happening, it's just that Republicans have been able to compensate by increasing their margins with white retirees and practicing Christians more than previously thought.  Texas has an extremely young population, the rural Evangelical vote is already at 90% GOP, and the pace of demographic change is faster there than elsewhere.  Unlike in Florida or NC, I don't see any obvious way for Republicans to compensate in Texas (or Georgia for that matter).

Are they though? The nation has gotten more and more diverse over the last 8 years yet it's getting more and more Republican.

Texas does a very good job at assimilation. Already a lot of "Hispanics" there identify and are seen as "White". The definition of "Whiteness" has always changed.

If you actually look at the 2016 election in Texas outside of the President election the Republicans did as well as they always do. That means that Trump is a bad fit for the state so a lot of people voted down ballet Republican while leaving the President Box Blank or voted for Hillary.

Texas has a huge population. It's not like Nevada, Oregon or Colorado where the population is so small that migrants from California can flip the state. It would have taken millions and millions of people moving into the state from 2012 to 2016 to see the huge swing in the Election results we seen.

[maga2020]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Yeah, sure... a state that Trump only won by less than 4% against a historically unpopular Democratic candidate will never vote for a Democrat...

When the democrats can't even cross 46% for the past few cycles, so no, Arizona will not go democrat unless there is an election akin to 1992.

Trump's low margin in Arizona was entirely made of third party defections.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Never, same reason Arizona will never go dem, the GOP knows it won't repeat the mistakes from California where they let too many third worlders enter because of Reagan's goodwill towards immigrants.

Also, whites in Texas will never move to the democrats as long as they know what happens down south of the border and the fact that they will be the first to be run over by open borders.

Yeah, sure... a state that Trump only won by less than 4% against a historically unpopular Democratic candidate will never vote for a Democrat...

When the democrats can't even cross 46% for the past few cycles, so no, Arizona will not go democrat unless there is an election akin to 1992.

Trump's low margin in Arizona was entirely made of third party defections.

Who split 50/50.

[Mr. Smith]

2024 if Trump gets uniformly Cartered out in 2020. 2028 if the trends are more modest. NEVER if the result is like Bush Jr's number in California the second time.

[GGSETTER]

It's not going to happen. Texas culture is way too Conservative and the democrats have gone way too far Left. Also look at how much of the state's economy is dependant on Fossil Fuels. That is going to be a huge headwind for the Democrats as they double down on Man Made Global Warming.

[Virginiá]

It's not going to happen. Texas culture is way too Conservative and the democrats have gone way too far Left. Also look at how much of the state's economy is dependant on Fossil Fuels. That is going to be a huge headwind for the Democrats as they double down on Man Made Global Warming.

What, you think states don't ever change? Democrats are already winning the under-45 vote comfortably in Texas, and eventually there aren't going to be enough old, conservative white voters left to beat back generations of youth that want something different. Compounding that, I imagine the shift would be accelerated if there was ever a pathway to citizenship instituted, given the large number of undocumented people in TX.

[Virginiá]

Wow I'm an idiot. I completely overlooked how a pathway to citizenship/amnesty would benefit Democrats in a lot of these southwestern states if that were to go through. I was focusing more on Democrats registering more and more Hispanics in the state who don't currently vote in my future projections but I overlooked that critical aspect of it (undocumented people becoming citizens and voting).

It's possible we see something like that in the early-mid 2020s, and at that point it would depend on the delay period of how long undocumented people would have to wait to apply. I think I've seen anywhere from 3 - 10 years put forth, so you could assume something in the middle, like 7, then factor in a slow-but-increasing rate of applications, and thus maybe the floodgates would really open in the 2030s. Not only does that spell trouble for Republicans in Texas, but who knows how irrelevant they become in California. Maybe 20% in a presidential election? 15?