How Did the Poorest Counties in the US Vote by State?

[NOVA Green]

Inspired by RINO Tom's post regarding how the "Richest Counties" voted, I decided to run a few numbers to see how the Lowest Income Counties Voted....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.msg5708486#msg5708486

So much of the attention is focused on the voting patterns of upper middle-class voters, let's take a look at how many of us that aren't riding the gravy train voted in 2016....

RINO didn't pull the numbers for lowest MHI by County, likely because Statistical Atlas unfortunately caps these numbers after the first (50) counties in the State.... Needless to say, there are a ton of states with over (50) counties....

The methodology started with using statisticalatlas.com numbers for those states with <50 counties.

In order to supplement the data for those states with >50 counties, I used the following source, recognizing that the Census numbers are likely a few years behind the statistical atlas numbers.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2015/01/10/247-wall-st-poorest-county-each-state/21388095/

As always, feel free to provide additional insight and contributions....

This is what I found for how the poorest counties voted by state:

Alabama: Sumter            (74 D- 25 R)---    MHI $22.2k/Yr
Arizona: Apache              (62 D- 30 R)---    MHI $31.5k/Yr
Arkansas: Lee                 (57 D- 41 R)---    MHI $25.0k/Yr
California: Lake               (47 D- 43 R)--     MHI $36.5k/Yr
Colorado: Otero              (35 D- 58 R)---   MHI $33.8k/Yr
Connecticut: Windham    (43 D- 51 R)---    MHI $59.3k/Yr
Delaware: Sussex           (37 D- 59 R)---    MHI $52.7k/Yr
Florida: Putnam              (30 D- 66 R)--     MHI $32.5k/Yr
Georgia: Telfair               (35 D- 65 R)--     MHI $26.6k/Yr
Hawaii: Hawaii                (64 D- 27 R)--     MHI $51.3k/Yr
Idaho: Madison               (30 D- 57 R)---    MHI $32.0k/Yr
Illinois: Jackson               (47 D- 44 R)--     MHI $33,5k/Yr
Indiana: Fayette              (24 D- 72 R)--     MHI $37.4k/Yr
Iowa: Appanoose             (30 D- 66 R)--     MHI $39.2k/Yr
Kansas: Crawford             (35 D- 58 R)--    MHI $37.4k/Yr
Kentucky: McCreary         (12 D- 87 R)---   MHI $21.0k/Yr
Louisiana: Madison           (58 D- 41 R)--    MHI $25.5k/Yr
Maine: Piscataquis            (34 D- 59 R)---   MHI $36.6k/Yr
Maryland: Somerset          (42 D- 54 R)--    MHI $38.4k/Yr
Massachusetts: Berkshire   (67 D- 26 R)--   MHI $48.5k/Yr
Michigan: Lake                  (36 D- 59 R)--   MHI $29.4k/Yr
Minnesota: Wadena           (24 D- 69.8% R)-- MHI $36.9k/Yr
Mississippi: Holmes           (86 D-16 R)       MHI $22.3k/Yr
Missouri: Oregon               (19D- 79 R)--    MHI $27.7k/Yr
Montana: Sanders             (20D- 70 R)--    MHI $32.9k/Yr
Nebraska: Red Willow        (12 D- 82 R)--   MHI $42.3k/Yr
Nevada: Esmeralda           (16 D- 78 R)--   MHI $30.3k/Yr
New Hampshire: Coos       (42 D- 51 R)--   MHI $42.0k/Yr
New Jersey: Cumberland   (51 D- 45 R)--   MHI $50.8k/Yr
New Mexico: Sierra           (31 D- 58 R)--   MHI $27.4k/Yr
New York: Bronx               (86 D- 9 R)--    MHI $34.4k/Yr
North Carolina: Scotland    (53 D- 45 R)--  MHI $29.6k/Yr
North Dakota: Rolette        (56 D- 32 R)--  MHI $31.3k/Yr
Ohio: Athens                     (55 D- 38 R)--  MHI $33.8k/Yr
Oklahoma: Pushmataha     (20 D- 80 R)--  MHI $29.9k/Yr
Oregon: Lake                    (16 D- 77 R) -- MHI $33.6k/Yr
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia  (82 D- 15 R)--  MHI $37.2k/Yr
Rhode Island: Providence   (58 D- 37 R)--  MHI $49.3k/Yr
South Carolina: Allendale    (76 D- 22 R)--  MHI $25.3k/Yr
South Dakota: Shannon     (86 D- 8 R)--    MHI $25.6k/Yr
Tennessee: Grundy            (21D- 76 R)--   MHI $26.8k/Yr
Texas: Starr                      (79 D- 19 R)-   MHI $24.9k/Yr
Utah: Piute                        (6 D- 86 R)--   MHI $38.5k/Yr
Vermont: Essex                 (35 D- 51 R)-   MHI $35.9k/Yr
Virginia: Martinsville          (60 D- 37 R)-   MHI $27.4k ()
Washington: Whitman        (45 D- 41 R)-   MHI $36.3k/Yr
West Virginia: McDowell     (23 D- 74 R)-   MHI $22.3k/Yr
Wisconsin: Ashland            (53 D- 41 R)-   MHI $38.6k/Yr
Wyoming: Niobrara            (9 D- 85 R)--   MHI $38.4k/Yr

So what does the map look like if only the poorest counties were to cast the EVs for the state?

Edit: Strike through to represent all of the counties that shifted from lowest MHI within their states...

So, clearly this reinforces how fickle it can be trying to asses relative MHI, especially considering a relatively low level of responsiveness to government surverys....

Still, want to do the strike-through, so anyone who is interested will check out what I consider to be the most recent numbers available....

[Vosem]

Another appearance by the mysterious Oregon County -- the only county in Missouri to vote McCaskill '06/Akin '12.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Another appearance by the mysterious Oregon County -- the only county in Missouri to vote McCaskill '06/Akin '12.

I always thought Shannon County was the poorest county in Missouri. Depending on the year and the type of income used, it's usually either Shannon, Carter, or Oregon. These counties, while full of some of the most beautiful natural scenery located in the Ozarks, are indicative of what's going on nationally: historically Democratic mining counties at the local and state levels that are rapidly Republicanizing due to the urban/rural divide. I've driven through these counties numerous times on my way west to Springfield. Barely any cell phone service and more trees than houses, but truly a beautiful view most of the way there.

Off topic, but Shannon County does produce some of the state's top high school volleyball teams. Winona High School won the Class 1 state championship for three years in a row from 2012-2014.

Great post, OP.

[Coraxion]

Piute is the poorest county in Utah? I would've guessed San Juan (majority Native American, Navajo Nation).

[NOVA Green]

Thanks everyone for your inputs on this...

After reviewing in more detail, I am not satisfied that either Statistical Atlas, nor the backup source for states with >50 counties, provide us with the most recent data. Additionally, using multiple data sources makes for an inherently messy attempt at comparison.

So, I decided to pull the 2015 Census estimates by County to see what these numbers show.

Now, there are inherent issues even with the Census Bureau numbers in estimating household income, especially for rural and poorer communities, and if you look at the confidence interval ranges for many of these counties, there is a wide variance between the low-end and high-end numbers, so frequently even small shifts in data can flip which county from having the lowest MHI...

Here are the revised numbers based upon the 2015 Census estimates:

https://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/statecounty/data/2015.html

Alabama: Wilcox-          MHI $ 23,014- (2016: 71 D- 28 R)- ('12: 74 D- 26 R) +5% R Swing
Alaska: N/A
Arizona: Apache-          MHI $  31,072- (2016: 62 D- 30 R)-('12: 66 D- 32 R) +2% R Swing
Arkansas: Phillips-        MHI $  28,224- (2016: 62 D- 35 R)- ('12: 66D- 33 R) +6% R Swing
California: Siskiyou       MHI $  37,447- (2016: 35 D- 55 R)- ('12: 40 D- 55R) +5% R Swing
Colorado: Costilla         MHI $  27,944- (2016: 61 D- 32 R)- ('12: 73 D- 24 R) +20% R Swing
Connecticut: Windham MHI $  61,303-  (2016: 43 D- 51 R)- ('12: 56 D- 42 R) +17% R Swing
Delaware: Sussex        MHI $  54,309-  (2016: 37 D- 59 R)- ('12: 43 D- 56 R) +9% R Swing
DC:                            MHI $  73,115-  (2016: 91 D- 4 R)-   ('12: 91 D- 7 R)   +3% D Swing
Florida: Putnam          MHI $   32,351   (2016: 30 D- 66R)-  ('12: 37 D- 62R)  +11%R Swing
Georgia: Clay             MHI $   25,941   (2016: 55 D- 44 R)- ('12: 61 D- 38 R)  +12% R Swing
Hawaii: Hawaii            MHI $   54,914   (2016: 64 D-27 R)- ('12: 74 D- 23 R)  +14% R Swing
Idaho: Shoshone        MHI $   37,497   (2016: 27 D- 64 R)- ('12  44 D- 52 R)  +29% R Swing
Illinois: Alexander      MHI  $   32,922   (2016: 45 D- 53 R)- ('12  56 D- 42 R)  +22% R Swing
Indiana: Blackford      MHI $    39,611   (2016: 25 D- 69 R)- ('12  40 D- 57 R)  +25% R Swing
Iowa: Decatur            MHI $    39,424   (2016: 32 D- 61 R)- ('12: 47 D-51 R)  +25% R Swing
Kansas: Woodson       MHI $    37,394   (2016: 19 D- 75 R)- ('12: 26 D- 72 R) +10% R Swing
Kentucky: Owsley       MHI $   23,341   (2016:  15 D- 84 R)- ('12: 18 D- 81 R)  +6% R Swing
Louisiana: East Carroll MHI $   26,325  (2016:  63 D- 36 R)- ('12: 62 D- 38 R)   +3% D Swing
Maine: Washington     MHI  $   35,576  (2016:  37 D- 56 R)- ('12: 50 D- 48 R)  +21% R Swing
Maryland: Somerset   MHI $    38,692  (2016:  42 D- 54 R)- ('12: 50 D- 48 R)   +14% R Swing
Massachusetts: Berkshire MHI $50,646 (2016: 67 D- 26 R)- ('12: 76 D- 22 R)   +13% R Swing
Michigan: Lake          MHI $    32,971   (2016: 36 D- 59 R)- ('12: 52 D- 47 R)   +28% R Swing
Minnesota: Mahnomen MHI $  40.849   (2016:  45 D- 47 R)- ('12: 58 D- 40 R)  +20% R Swing
Mississippi: Holmes     MHI $  24,065    (2016:  83 D- 16 R)- ('12: 84 D- 15 R)  +2% R Swing
Missouri: Shannon      MHI $  28,171    (2016:  20 D- 76 R)- ('12: 35 D- 61 R)  +30% R Swing
Montana: Glacier        MHI $  31,666    (2016:  62 D- 32 R)- ('12: 66 D- 32 R)  +4 % R Swing
Nebraska: Furnas       MHI $  40,032    (2016:  13 D- 82 R)- ('12: 19 D-80 R)   +8% R Swing
Nevada: Mineral         MHI  $ 42,164    (2016: 32 D- 59 R)- ('12:  42 D- 53 R)  +16% R Swing
New Hampshire: Coos MHI  $ 40,286    (2016: 42 D- 51 R)- ('12:  58 D- 40R)  +27% R Swing
New Jersey: Cumberland MHI $ 50,929 (2016: 51 D- 45 R)- ('12:  62 D- 37 R) +19% R Swing
New Mexico: Luna      MHI   $ 27,151   (2016: 44 D- 48 R)- ('12: 48 D- 49 R)   +3% R Swing
New York: Bronx         MHI   $ 35,152  (2016: 89 D- 9 R)-  ('12:  91 D- 8 R)    +3% R Swing
North Carolina: Halifax MHI  $31,952   (2016: 63 D- 36 R)- ('12: 66 D- 34 R)   +5% R Swing
North Dakota: Sioux    MHI  $32,895   (2016: 62 D- 21 R)- ('12: 79 D- 20 R)   +18% R Swing
Ohio: Adams               MHI $ 36,609   (2016: 20 D- 76 R)- ('12: 36 D- 62 R)   +30% R Swing
Oklahoma: Choctaw    MHI $ 30,572    (2016: 20 D- 78 R)- ('12: 29 D- 71 R)   +16% R Swing
Oregon: Wheeler        MHI $ 34,157    (2016: 19 D- 72 R)- ('12: 31 D- 64 R)   +20% R Swing
Pennsylvania: Forest   MHI $ 37,388   (2016: 26 D- 70 R)- ('12: 39 D- 60 R)    +23% R Swing
Rhode Island: Providence MHI $50,364 (2016: 58 D-37 R)- ('12: 67 D-32 R)    +14% R Swing
South Carolina:Allendale  MHI $27,089 (2016: 76 D- 22 R)- ('12: 79 D- 20R)   +5% R Swing
South Dakota: Buffalo    MHI $22,894   (2016: 60 D-35 R)- ('12: 74 D- 26 R)   +23% R Swing
Tennessee: Hancock      MHI: $27,987  (2016:  14 D- 83 R)- ('12: 23D-75 R)   +20% R Swing
Texas: Zavala               MHI $27,711    (2016: 78 D- 20 R)- ('12: 83 D-16 R)   +9% R Swing
Utah: San Juan            MHI $39,305     (2016: 37 D- 48 R)- ('12: 40 D-58 R)   +7% D Swing
Vermont: Essex            MHI $41,764    (2016: 35 D- 51 R)- ('12: 55 D- 42 R)   +29% R Swing
Virginia: Norton City     MHI $31,287    (2016: 26 D- 70 R)- ('12: 38 D- 60 R)   +22% R Swing
Washington: Columbia  MHI $40,029    (2016: 24 D- 67 R)- ('12: 28 D-69 R)    +2% R Swing
West Virginia:McDowell MHI $26,413    (2016: 23 D- 74 R)- ('12: 34 D- 64 R)   +21% R Swing
Wisconsin: Menominee MHI $33,410    (2016: 77 D- 20 R)- ('12: 86 D- 13R)     +16% R Swing
Wyoming: Albany         MHI $44,455    (2016: 40D- 45 R)- ('12: 46 D- 48R)     +3% R Swing

Since we like maps...

[NOVA Green]

So just came back from shooting off some "illegal fireworks" with an Afghan War Veteran to commemorate Independence Day, and wanted to add a few additional comments to my previous post....

Had some time to visit with my Grandkids, eat some BBQ, and visit with some of the in-laws, watching the youngin's do their first sparklers, wave old glory, and generally a good time for all.

The key item that stands out for me is the massive swing towards Trump in the lowest median-household incomes by state, regardless of region, race/ethnicity, and all of the standard BS analysis of the 2016 Presidential election.

If we exclude DC, there are only two states in the US that swung towards HRC in the poorest counties in America....

1/2 is in Utah, where one might argue that 3rd Party votes for McMullin dramatically impacted the numbers....

What really stands out are how consistent and dramatic the swings are in so many states....

24/49 States saw +15% Republican Swings in the Poorest Counties in their respective states....

My eyes are getting tired looking at the data by there at least 6 more with +10% Republican swings....

Even in heavily the poorest Native American, Latino, and African-American Counties throughout the Country, there was a swing towards Trump, this an indisputable fact....

Some of my Democratic friends might say "meh-- voter turnout levels among Black Voters in the Deep South", "ehh Rural Latinos are different than Urban Latinos", "HRC pissed off Native Americans because of Standing Rock", "Bernie messed it all up"....

Some of my Republican friends might say: "Trump was a different kind of Republican who talked about jobs and standing up to big business", "All of the lies about Trump performing poorly among Minority Voters were not only born out by the exit polls, but now NoVA Green tells us it's a fact", or the Republican Message of Fiscal, Social, and Foreign Policy Conservatism is finally breaking through after eight years of Barack Obama"....

Ok-- quite a few strawmen out there in the mix, not to mention a bit of hyperbole on my part.

Still---- the math is the math, the facts are the facts, and the swings between '12 & '16 in the poorest counties in America explain the outcome of the '16 election in a way that exit polls do not.

For every county on this list. there are many other counties in America in each of these states, where one will observe a similar trend/swing.

So, will the Democratic Party define themselves as a part of the people, including the most impoverished citizens throughout our Great Nation, or continue to be associated as part of the party of the rich and powerful?

Maybe Trump was just an anomaly as a Republican, and the cool headed "centrist" voices will reign him back in.

Who knows what candidate will be waving the banner of both respective parties in 2020 or 2024....

However, in honor of Independence Day, here is an artist's rendition of the siege of Baltimore, where the Star Spangled Banner was written back in the early 1800s.... (Worth checking out the Fort if any of you haven't been there yet!!!!! )

[NOVA Green]

So---Median Household Income (MHI) is definitely one means of measuring relative wealth in America by counties within a given state, it is clearly lacking when attempting to assess relative poverty within the United States.

A potentially more accurate way of measuring poverty in America is using the Federal numbers for a % of the Population in a County living beneath the Federal Poverty Line....

This has the advantage of incorporating the economic impact of children within a family structure, where as anyone on this Forum that has ever had children well knows are a major expense...

Additionally, retired individuals are more likely to own their own homes, have access to relatively inexpensive medical care through Medicare, VA programs, and even in relative poverty are still frequently able to keep their heads above the Federal Poverty Line.

There are many others on the Forum much more well versed than myself on the intricacies of Census definitions, but at least we have a common definition for discussion from the '15 Census Bureau official numbers (below)

There is still obviously an inherent bias towards rural communities, as well as no adjustment depending upon the relative cost of living between states and within a given state, making this a limited but still worthwhile assessment of relative poverty.

What does the situation look like if we use % of Total Population in the County below the Poverty level?

Counties in bold also match lowest MHI for the given State....

Alabama- Perry-             40.0% Poverty--- ('16- 72 D- 27 R)--- ('12- 75 D- 25 R)  +5% R Swing
Alaska--- N/A
Arizona- Apache         38.0% Poverty--- ('16: 62 D- 30 R)-('12: 66 D- 32 R) +2% R Swing
Arkansas- Phillips-      37.3% Poverty--- ('16: 62 D- 35 R)- ('12: 66D- 33 R) +6% R Swing  
California- Tulare            27.2% Poverty--- ('16: 42 D- 51 R)- ('12: 41 D- 56 R) +6% D Swing
Colorado- Crowley           44.3% Poverty--- ('16: 22 D- 71 R)- ('12: 36 D- 62 R) +23% R Swing
Connecticut: New Haven  13.6% Poverty--  ('16: 54 D- 42 R)- ('12: 61 D- 38 R)  +14% R Swing
Delaware: Kent               14.2% Poverty--- ('16: 45 D- 50 R)- ('12: 52 D- 47 R)  +10% R Swing
DC:                           17.7% Poverty--- ('16: 91 D- 4 R)-   ('12: 91 D- 7 R)   +3% D Swing
Florida: Hamilton            31.8% Poverty--- ('16: 35 D- 63 R)- ('12: 41 D- 58 R)  +11% R Swing
Georgia: Stewart            42.0% Poverty--- ('16: 59 D- 39 R)- ('12: 64 D- 36 R)   +8% R Swing
Hawaii: Hawaii           18.3% Poverty--- ('16: 64 D-27 R)- ('12: 74 D- 23 R)  +14% R Swing
Idaho: Madison              28.1% Poverty--- ('16: 8 D-57 R)-  ('12: 6 D- 93 R)     +39% D Swing
Illinois: Alexander      28.6% Poverty--- ('16: 45 D- 53 R)- ('12: 56 D- 42 R)  +22% R Swing
Indiana: Monroe             23.5% Poverty--- ('16: 59 D- 35 R)- ('12: 58 D- 39 R)  +5% D Swing
Iowa: Decatur                21.7% Poverty--  ('16: 32 D- 61 R)- ('12: 47 D-51 R)  +25% R Swing
Kansas: Riley                 23.4% Poverty--  ('16: 43 D- 46 R)- ('12: 43 D- 55 R)  +9% D Swing
Kentucky: Clay               46.8% Poverty--  ('16: 11 D- 87 R)- ('12: 15 D- 84 R)  +7% R Swing
Louisiana: East Carroll 43.5% Poverty-- ('16: 63 D- 36 R)- ('12: 62 D- 38 R)   +3% D Swing
Maine: Piscataquis          19.1% Poverty--  ('16: 34 D- 59 R)- ('12: 46 D- 51 R)  +20% R Swing
Maryland: Somerset   25.8% Poverty-  ('16:  42 D- 54 R)- ('12: 50 D- 48 R)   +14% R Swing
Massachusetts: Suffolk   19.8% Poverty-  ('16: 78 D- 16 R)- ('12: 77 D- 21 R)    +6% D Swing
Michigan: Isabella          26.1% Poverty-  ('16: 45 D- 48 R)- ('12: 54 D- 44 R)    +13% R Swing
Minnesota: Mahnomen  21.5% Poverty- ('16:  45 D- 47 R)- ('12: 58 D- 40 R)  +20% R Swing
Mississippi: Claiborne        46.3% Poverty- ('16: 87 D- 13 R)- ('12: 88 D- 11 R)   +3% R Swing
Missouri: Pemiscot            28.0% Poverty- ('16: 32 D- 66 R)- ('12: 42 D- 57 R)   +19% R Swing
Montana: Big Horn            31.0% Poverty- ('16: 49 D- 44 R)- ('12: 62 D- 36 R)   +21% R Swing
Nebraska: Thurston           25.6% Poverty- ('16: 44 D- 50 R)- ('12: 56 D- 42 R)    +20% R Swing
Nevada: Pershing              18.3% Poverty- ('16: 22 D- 71 R)- ('12: 34 D- 62 R)   +21% R Swing
New Hampshire: Coos    16.1% Poverty- ('16: 42 D- 51 R)- ('12:  58 D- 40R)  +27% R Swing
New Jersey: Hudson          17.7% Poverty- ('16: 74 D- 22 R)- ('12: 77 D- 21 R)   +4% R Swing
New Mexico: McKinley        34.1% Poverty- ('16: 63 D- 24 R)- ('12: 72 D- 25 R)   +8% R Swing
New York: Bronx                30.3% Poverty- ('16: 89 D- 9 R)-  ('12:  91 D- 8 R)    +3% R Swing
North Carolina: Robeson     30.6% Poverty- ('16: 47 D- 51 R)- ('12: 58 D- 41 R)  +21% R Swing
North Dakota: Sioux     40.4% Poverty- ('16: 62 D- 28 R)- ('12: 79 D- 20 R)   +25% R Swing
Ohio: Athens                    31.5% Poverty- ('16: 55 D- 38 R)- ('12: 66 D- 31 R)   +18% R Swing
Oklahoma: Choctaw     29.9% Poverty- ('16: 20 D- 78 R)- ('12: 29 D- 71 R)   +16% R Swing
Oregon: Malheur              24.9% Poverty- ('16: 22 D- 69 R)- ('12: 28 D- 69 R)   +6% R Swing
Pennsylvania: Philadelphia 25.4% Poverty- ('16: 82 D- 15 R)- ('12: 85 D- 14 R)  +5% R Swing
Rhode Island: Providence 17.2% Poverty- ('16: 58 D-37 R)- ('12: 67 D-32 R)  +14% R Swing
South Carolina: Allendale 41.0% Poverty-('16: 76 D-22 R)-('12: 79 D-20R)+5% R Swing
South Dakota: Corson         47.4% Poverty- ('16: 46 D- 50 R)- ('12: 54 D- 43 R)  +15% R Swing
Tennessee: Lake                 43.1% Poverty- ('16: 29 D- 69 R)- ('12: 42 D- 56 R)  +26% R Swing
Texas: Willacy                    35.4% Poverty- ('16: 67 D- 30 R)- ('12: 71 D- 28 R)   +6% R Swing
Utah: San Juan             28.5% Poverty- ('16: 37 D- 48 R)- ('12: 40 D-58 R)   +7% D Swing
Vermont: Essex            14.3% Poverty- ('16: 35 D- 51 R)- ('12: 55 D- 42 R)   +31% R Swing
Virginia: Radford City        32.8% Poverty- ('16: 48 D- 43 R)- ('12: 51 D- 47 R)   +0% Swing
Washington: Whitman       20.8% Poverty- ('16: 45 D- 41 R)- ('12: 47 D- 49 R)   +6% D Swing
West Virginia: McDowell 34.5% Poverty- ('16: 23 D- 74 R)- ('12: 34 D- 64 R)  +21% R Swing
Wisconsin: Menominee   35.2% Poverty- ('16: 77 D- 20 R)- ('12: 86 D- 13R)   +16% R Swing
Wyoming: Albany               20.1% Poverty- ('16: 40 D- 45 R)- ('12: 46 D- 48 R)  +3% R Swing

Map.... discussion to follow.

[RFayette]

It should be noted that the poorest counties in Kansas and Indiana listed above are homes to major state universities, and the large presence of graduate students likely makes those areas seem poorer than they actually are (at least, without all of the negative social indicators associated with poverty, like low education rates, malnutrition, etc.).  I can assure you, Monroe County, Indiana is a very nice place to be!  I know Athens has poor Appalachian communities in addition to the university town, but I don't believe this is the case to such an extent in either IN/KS.  Just something to keep in mind.

[NOVA Green]

It should be noted that the poorest counties in Kansas and Indiana listed above are homes to major state universities, and the large presence of graduate students likely makes those areas seem poorer than they actually are (at least, without all of the negative social indicators associated with poverty, like low education rates, malnutrition, etc.).  I can assure you, Monroe County, Indiana is a very nice place to be!  I know Athens has poor Appalachian communities in addition to the university town, but I don't believe this is the case to such an extent in either IN/KS.  Just something to keep in mind.

Good points which I noticed but didn't get around to covering....

OT: Bloomington, Indiana is a pretty cool town, having spend a bit of time travelling through several decades back.

This is one of the items that really stood out as a contract between the "poorest county by MHI" vs "county with highest % of people below the poverty line lists--- university counties popping up on the list.

So we'll get back to the college county scene in a moment, but firstly I wanted to try to group together patterns in the "Poorest by MHI" dataset, and then subsequently "% of pop in poverty" dataset.

Poorest County by MHI:

These appear to roughly break into the following broader categories---

1.) Deep South- "Black Belt" Counties

(Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Belt_(U.S._region)

What do these counties have in common? (Other than voting overwhelmingly for HRC)

1.) A majority of the population is African-American, although only in AL, LA, MS, & SC >70%.
Halifax County NC has the lowest % of AA population at 51%, with Clay, GA at 58%, and Phillips, AR at 63%.

2.) The Anglo-American population is increasingly aging and Whites 55+ years represent 7-20% of the total County population from lowest to highest (MS, SC, LA, AL, NC, AR, & GA).

3.) In general, the population of these (7) counties tends to be older than average, but interestingly enough in LA & MS only 23-24% of the pop is 55+/Yrs.

4.) Economically: Agriculture still has a major economic impact in almost all of these counties in terms of employment by industry, but to a much lesser extent than I had expected. Agriculture accounts from 2-14 % of employment in the following order from lowest to highest (NC, MS, AL, SC, LA, AR, GA).

5.) Manufacturing accounts for a disproportionately amount of employment in virtually all of the counties.... Over 20% of workers are employed in MFG in MS & SC, 15% in AL/GA/NC. 13% in LA.

So, after looking at both the '12>'16 election numbers and the demographic profile of the various counties in a summarized format what does that tell us?

A.) Alabama- (Wilcox)- 400 less voters between '12 and '16 (+5% R Swing)

Considering that the County is 73% AA, and the overwhelmingly Democratic nature of the county, one can likely assume these were likely AA and/or Millennial voters that didn't vote that caused the +5% R swing, as opposed to defection of AA/White Obama voters switching to Trump. This could become an increasing problem for Democrats here, considering that the "White" vote is increasingly aging, and Millennial voters apparently weren't sufficiently enthused to vote in '16.

B.) Arkansas (Phillips County)--- 1,000 less voters '12-'16 (!)  (+6% R Swing)

 I would be remiss to not mention the history of Elaine, where a White lynch mob murdered 237 Americans back in 1919, after there was an attempt to unionize and organize tenant farmers in the County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillips_County,_Arkansas

Interestingly enough this is one of the counties on the list with the highest % of "White" population (35%). It has one of the highest % of Whites > 55 (18%), which basically account for 50% of the White population of the County....Also, unlike many other counties in this category, manufacturing is the lowest accounting for only 8.2% of the workforce.

Despite the horrific massacre that occurred here almost 100 years ago, it still appears that White within the County did not swing heavily towards Trump, but rather that a huge number of voters <45 simply were not motivated to vote in '16.

C.) Georgia- (Clay County)- 100 less voters '12-'16 (+12% R Swing)

58% AA, 35% White--- Agriculture accounts for 14% of employment, and MFG 15%. 19% of the County population are Whites > 55 Yrs

Perhaps it is not surprising that it experienced the largest swings towards Trump of these (7) counties....

It's also the oldest county with 36% of the population 55+...

It does appear the drop-off in turnout doesn't explain the swings here.... Plenty of poor older Whites that voted Obama '12 swung to Trump '16....

D.) Louisiana- (East Carroll)--- 1.1k drop in Votes '12>'16. (+3% D Swing)

70% AA, but one of the lowest % of Whites >55 (11% of County). It also has the lowest % of the population 55+ of these states. Interestingly enough, although it does have a workforce 8% Ag, 13% MFG, 9% of the workforce is employed in the "Government Industry"....

This is pretty much the only county where there was a swing towards the Democratic Pres candidate between '12 and '16....

Without having detailed knowledge of the reason, the only explanation that I could provide would be that role of the government sector... Any explanations from Atlasia on why this would be an exception?

E.) Mississippi- (Holmes)-- 1,1k drop in votes '12>'16   (+2% R Swing)

The most AA County on the list (83%), and one of the lowest % employed in agriculture. 20% of the workforce is in manufacturing, and one of the lowest % of adults 55 + (24%). Only 7% of the County are Whites 55+

F.) South Carolina- (Allendale)- 600 drop in votes '12>'16 (+5% R Swing)

2nd highest in AA population (77%), only 10% of the population are Whites 55+, and about in the median range of age for total population (28% 55+).

Economically, it has the highest % of the population in the Manufacturing sector (22.2%!). There is still definitely some agricultural employment here (6.0%), but much less so than the other counties on this list.

G.) North Carolina- (Halifax)- 800 drop in votes '12>'16 (+5% R Swing)

Honestly, I'm not sure why I have Halifax on this list, since it shares very little similarities to the other six counties listed....

We're not really talking about a heavily rural County compared to the others.

The economy is heavily dominated by Health Care (16.8%), and Manufacturing (16.7%). It is the 2nd oldest county on the list (31% 55+). Whites 55+ are 14% of the total population, but considering that 39% of the County identifies as White, this stands out much less than the counties in Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia, (Or even Louisiana for that matter).

So what's a bit remarkable about Halifax County, is how small a swing there was towards Trump, especially when compared with Clay County GA and Phillips County AR....

In fact, it is actually remarkable how heavily Democratic this County is. Sure I know that NC Whites tend to be much more receptive to supporting Democrats than in AL, MS, & GA for example....

The only thing I can thing of is the presence of one of the oldest Community Colleges in NC, which also likely accounts for a huge chunk of public sector employment, also explains a more ethnically diverse population within the County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halifax_Community_College


So what accounts for the dramatic decline in turnout among the poorest communities by MHI within the Black Belt?

1.) The cliche hack answer that I will summarily preempt is "Well Obama's Black and these are mostly heavily Black counties and now that he's not on the ticket, so that explains it all!"

2.) The secondary cliche hack answer that Atlas might present is: "Well all of these WWC voters in heavily Black Counties liked Obama in '12 and despised HRC in '16 and that somehow explains these swings"

3.) The 3rd argument might be something along the lines of: "Trump spoke to rural America and somehow created massive swings among Black and White Voters in poor rural counties in the deep South"

Ok--- now that I have preempted traditional Atlas Cliches, my thoughts are as follows:

1.) Older Voters both African-American and "White" tend to vote at much higher levels than Middle-Aged, and younger voters, especially in the "Deep South". In theory this should benefit Republican voters on the margins in  lower turnout elections, considering how concentrated the White vote is in the 55+ category in virtually all of these counties.

2.) If one looks at the ethnic composition of voters <45 Years, these counties are all much "Blacker" than the overall county population.

3.) The high level of employment in the manufacturing sector, and dramatic decline in employment in the agricultural sector has created a situation where both Millennial Whites & Blacks working side-by-side in the agricultural processing plants in the region rejected both the HRC and Trump economic vision, and the respective messaging images of the Democratic/Republican Party standard bearers.

Let's face it--- manufacturing work is supposed to be decent paying jobs with benefits and an "out" from doing seasonal work on a Farm, especially in economically depressed rural communities.

This is not the case in the some of the poorest communities in the Deep South, where major job injuries are prevalent, jobs basically pay only Federal Minimum Wage, and neither political party is really addressing the fundamental issues.

4.) It is actually amazing that there wasn't a stronger swing towards Trump in many of these counties, when looking at the overall demographics, and the dramatic drop in voter turnout '12>'16.

The only logical explanation is that poor Whites in the poorest counties of the Deep South, didn't actually swing towards Trump, but rather that many voters <45 sat the election out.

It should be interesting to monitor these counties come 2020, especially with a different Democrat at the top of ticket.

*** I really should drop Halifax from the list, but need to find another place to put it.

Thoughts anyone?

[NOVA Green]

Another appearance by the mysterious Oregon County -- the only county in Missouri to vote McCaskill '06/Akin '12.

I always thought Shannon County was the poorest county in Missouri. Depending on the year and the type of income used, it's usually either Shannon, Carter, or Oregon. These counties, while full of some of the most beautiful natural scenery located in the Ozarks, are indicative of what's going on nationally: historically Democratic mining counties at the local and state levels that are rapidly Republicanizing due to the urban/rural divide. I've driven through these counties numerous times on my way west to Springfield. Barely any cell phone service and more trees than houses, but truly a beautiful view most of the way there.

Off topic, but Shannon County does produce some of the state's top high school volleyball teams. Winona High School won the Class 1 state championship for three years in a row from 2012-2014.

Great post, OP.

I want to thank you both for your insights into the politics of the great state of Missouri...

Vosem: Good to see you back posting, since it's been awhile that I've seen you post on some of the regular threads I follow.

I must confess to all y'all that I haven't spent much time in Missouri, but it's pretty clear that both Republican electoral success in the State, as well as Democratic Party failures are heavily concentrated in the Southern and poorest parts of the state.... There are many Democrats that want to smoke their pipes and envision fantasies of racking up margins in the 'Burbs of SLO and KC, but without a significant level of support in rural areas, it is just that.

Sure Dukakis flipped corn counties in NW and Northern MO that hadn't voted Dem in decades, but many of these same voters faded away a few short years later.

No idea what MO '18 Senate election holds, but McCaskill only lost Oregon Co by 1% in '12, and won Shannon by 11%...

Kander got killed in both, despite his assault rifle assembly line commercial, although he was going against a Republican incumbent in the Year of Trump....

[NOVA Green]

Poorest Counties by MHI- #2: Sovereign Nations (Native Land)- West/Midwest

Seven counties by MHI contain an extremely high proportion of Native Americans.

This map shows the Native American Pop (Lightest shading 40-49%, next 60-69%, 70-79%, darkest 80+%)...

So, what does these counties have in common?

1.) A net increase in votes in 5/7 of these counties '12 and '16.

2.) A high level of 3rd Party support (Not as surprising)

3.) A major gap between the White % 55+ vs the overall County population...

4.) A young population compared to what one might expect for rural counties in region/states.

5.) A high proportion of the workforce employed in the Entertainment Industry in 4/7 counties (MN, ND, SD, & WI). This is not surprising considering Native Casinos. There are no Native Casinos in Apache Co, AZ, and a relatively new one in Glacier Co, MT, and San Juan Co, UT.

6.) A high % level of employment in Health Care, Gvt, and Education, compared to other industries.

7.) Agriculture plays a significant role in employment in 4/7 listed (ND/SD/MT/WI) where ~10% of the workforce is in the ag sector, but drops to a relatively low 2-5% in (AZ/MN/UT).

8.) Voter suppression of Native American Voters increased significantly between '12 and '16 after the Supreme Court in 2013 overturned a key element of the Civil Rights Voting Act.

https://indiancountrymedianetwork.com/news/politics/will-natives-get-a-fair-chance-to-vote-in-2016-not-according-to-many-lawsuits/

County List:


1.) South Dakota- Buffalo County- -24% decrease in votes '12>'16   (+23% R Swing)....

2nd highest % of Native voters (77%)

Articles below RE Buffalo County and voter suppression activities...

https://thinkprogress.org/how-a-south-dakota-county-is-suppressing-the-native-american-vote-233655d3b345

https://thinkprogress.org/obama-administration-intervenes-in-native-american-voting-rights-lawsuit-d92077572469

https://wpsa.research.pdx.edu/papers/docs/schroedelaslanian.docx

Was there really a major swing towards Trump here, or perhaps more likely Native Voters were either purged or had such restricted access to polling places?

2.) North Dakota- Sioux County- +8% increase in Votes '12>'16   (+18% R Swing)

This County has the highest % of Native Americans of any on the list, with 81% of the Population identifying as "Other" on the US Census data...

It is of course most recently famous for the Standing Rock rebellion, and resistance against an oil pipeline flowing through their Native Lands as part of some eminent domain deal....

A full 17% of voters in the County went for 3rd Party candidates (10% Stein, 4% Bernie)

So.... it doesn't really look like there was any movement towards Trump here with Pub numbers going from 20-21%.

3.) Minnesota- Mahnomen- (-8% decrease in Votes '12>'16)   +20% R Swing

40% Native, 49% White. This trend is even more pronounced the older you go with age....For example Whites are a plurality starting at 30-34 years, hit 45-54 (59 White- 33 Native), 55-64 (64 White- 32 Anglo), etc on the slope in the oldest county on the list (28% 55+)....

Maybe someone from Minnesota can enlighten me, is it something about the physical proximity to a Casino that tends to attract retired Anglos  to settle around here in their RV parks, or are these mainly local retired farmers and the like that explain this weird age gap...

Regardless there was a 7% Republican gain between '12 and '16 with declining turnout, while 3rd Parties candidates captured 8% in the County....

So the key questions are among which populations did voter turnout decrease most dramatically, and secondarily, where did Trump expand his % of Romney and by how much?

My general assumption would be that Native voter turnout dropped significantly, older White votes swung hard Trump (Retired but technically poor by MHI), and younger voters went hard 3rd Party...

4.) Wisconsin- Menominee- (-5% Voter decrease '12>'16)- +16% R Swing

79% Native- 13% White

Looks like the 2nd oldest county on the list (25% 55+) and also had one of the lowest % of 3rd Party Votes (3% in '16).

The age gap between Native/Non-Native doesn't really spike until the 65+ category (Unlike many of the other First Nation counties).

Still a 5% drop in turnout and a 3% 3rd Party Vote doesn't explain a +16% Republican swing here...

I do wonder to what extent Trump's message of Trump's promotion of economic nationalism might have resonated a bit in a county in which most of the agricultural jobs are directly tied to the Forest Products sector (Pattern we've observed in Oregon, Maine, and other parts of Upper Wisconsin).

http://www.americanforests.org/magazine/article/menominee-forest-keepers/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menominee

5.) Montana- Glacier- + 14% Voter increase '12>'16)-  +4% R Swing

64% Native- 32% White

One of the highest age gaps between Native and White Population.... Entertainment sector accounts for a relatively small sliver of county employment with agriculture standing out at 10.2% of the workforce by Industry and Health Care 16.8%.

This county had the highest % of voter increase '12>'16 of the Seven Counties, and only a marginal swing towards the Republicans, however with Trump only holding even with Romney '12 numbers....

Most of that swing is likely accounted by the 6% that voted 3rd Party, which appears to have hit HRC more than Trump. Again, the population >55 tends to skew Anglo starting at 44% (55-59) and bumping up to 66% the older you get.

Only 20% of the total population is 55+, so this might help explain why it didn't swing as hard as some of these other counties. The casino is a relatively minor employer within the County, with 17% employed in Health Care and  obviously being right over the border from Canada, most of the local residents aren't that receptive to a "Trade War", considering they are paying cents on the dollar for medicine, and that the recent Anglo settlers aren't attracted to the County to live in their RV home and gamble in the Casino all day long.

6.) Arizona- Apache-   +7% Voter increase '12>'16--- +2% R Swing

72% Native- 20% White

24% of the Pop is 55+, which places it on the medium-high range of "Indian Country"... 30% of the Pop 55+ is White, which is quite a bit lower than most of the other counties....

8% support for 3rd Party Candidates, which ties it for 3rd/4th along with MN, but still way behind ND & UT.

There are no Casinos in the County.... 21% of the workforce is in the Healthcare Industry, 16% Education, and 11% Government.

Trump lost 2% of the Republican numbers between '12 and '16.

7.) Utah- San Juan-- +4% Voter increase '12>'16.   +7% D margins

48% Native- 45% White

Although the County at large isn't relatively old (22% 55+), the population over the age of 55 is 55-68% White rolling from youngest to oldest.

San Juan County has one of the lowest % of Mormons (LDS community) in Utah, and according to this source is only 38.5% Mormon.

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/map_of_the_week/2012/02/mormon_population_in_the_u_s_an_interactive_map.html

There was a pretty impressive 16% of the County Vote that went 3rd Party, and McMullin only bagged 9%, with the rest going to Johnson, Stein, Write-Ins (Bernie?)....

The Dems only lost 3% between '12 and '16 and the Pubs dropped 10%....

Meanwhile, unlike any other county with a large Native American population, the economy is heavily focused around oil/gas/mining and related activities...

Oil and Gas are huge around here, not to mention the reopening of Uranium Mines in the County, in just the past few years....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining_in_Utah

Trying to wrap my brain around all this to explain the dramatically diverse results in 7 of the poorest counties in the US (MHI) with heavily concentrations of Native American Voters....

1.) South Dakota- Buffalo County- Crow Creek Indian Reservation (Sioux)

Voter suppression at the hands of elected officials in South Dakota are the predominant reason for the collapse of Native American Votes between '12 & '16 in Buffalo County...

2.) North Dakota- Sioux County--- The Standing Rock Reservation (Sioux)

Voter suppression clearly didn't play a role here.... Voter turnout jumped 8% and 18% of Voters went 3rd Party. There was no gain for the 'Pub candidate between '12 and '16.

Clearly the indecisiveness of HRC during the Primaries, and the relatively lackluster support of the Obama Administration likely played a factor here, when it came to resistance against the Pipeline Project....

3.) Minnesota- Mahnomen County ---- White Earth Indian Reservation (Partial)

The most heavily "White" County of the bunch, the oldest population, where Anglos run 65+ % of the population in the post 55 age range, and add a 8% decrease in turnout, and 8% voting 3rd Party?

Clearly elderly Anglo voters swung hard Trump, although it doesn't explain the gap in the swings.

4.) Wisconsin- Menominee-

This one is the hardest to explain.... Relatively minor decrease in turnout levels '12>'16, hardly any 3rd Party Voters, and a 7% increase in support for Pubs between '12 & '16.

Any way one chooses to slice and dice the data it is pretty clear that there was a swing towards Trump among Native Americans here.

5.) Montana- Glacier

Looks to be pretty clear that there is a combination of Native and Anglo younger voters that swung towards HRC, slightly offset by older Anglos that swung towards Trump.

6.) Arizona- Apache

This appears to be somewhat similar to Glacier County Montana... Lack of Casinos and Anglo voters that have chosen to live in a pretty remote place, with an average Anglo age significantly lower than elsewhere.

7.) Utah- San Juan

Well--- Damn! For a county heavily dependent upon the energy sector that is 39% LDS, and barely plurality Native American, and 54-68% of 55+ is Anglo, one might have expected to see a swing towards Trump.... Instead McMullin votes take away from Trump, while the minor drop-offs in Dem support go to the Left.

[BuckeyeNut]

It should be noted that the poorest counties in Kansas and Indiana listed above are homes to major state universities, and the large presence of graduate students likely makes those areas seem poorer than they actually are (at least, without all of the negative social indicators associated with poverty, like low education rates, malnutrition, etc.).  I can assure you, Monroe County, Indiana is a very nice place to be! I know Athens has poor Appalachian communities in addition to the university town, but I don't believe this is the case to such an extent in either IN/KS.  Just something to keep in mind.

Athens has a good mix of legitimately poor Appalachians and hippie college students that it's hard to say. (And OU is a significant portion of the residency of the county. There are 29k students on the main campus, and only 66k in the county as a whole.) It may well be that Ohio is the only state on the list where the poorest county is also the most progressive.

[NOVA Green]

Got capped on the word limit, had to edit in order to post without finishing my thought....

Although I started the post with the assumptions of Atlas CW, based upon a handful of County Results and threads posted shortly after the '16 election, that Native American Counties overwhelmingly rejected HRC (Massive Swings) because of her positions on the Oil Pipeline and Standing Rock, the actual data on these counties does not appear to support that assumption.....

The only County where Native American Voter turnout dropped dramatically, was in South Dakota, which has a long-standing history to the present day, of suppression of Native American votes.

North Dakota is really the only place where there was a major shift to 3rd Party Votes.

Montana & Arizona don't really appear to have experienced a major Native American backlash against Clinton, and additionally White voters in both respective counties don't appear to have jumped hard on the Trump Train.

Utah--- Special case and difficult to compare and contrast namely because of the large energy sector employment base, relatively low Native American Population (Compared to the others), not to mention the high LDS population within the County, which transcends the traditional Native/Anglo categories....

Minnesota jumps out a bit...

Wisconsin appear to be a total outlier....

Still, without doing a comprehensive study on heavily Native American counties '12>'16, it does appear that at least in some Native Communities, Trump was able to gain Native votes....

Where and why???

If I had to throw a random dart at the dartboard, I would venture to guess that Trump's message and positioning regarding Veterans appealed particularly well to Native American Voters 65+

I'm going on the assumption that most of y'all are aware of the disproportionate contribution that Native Americans have made in the service of the "Colonizers", when it comes to Military Service.

From WW II, Korea, Vietnam, to Iraq 1.0, and Iraq 2.0, Native Americans have fought and died at disproportionate numbers.

This is an historical fact and not a diatribe....

Still, the legacy of exploitation and poverty still exists in Native Land throughout the United States....

To close it out, until there is an opportunity to further discuss the real issues and concerns of First Nations, we will leave it with a song about a true American Patriot: "Ballad of Ira Hayes".

This comes off a Johnny Cash Album: "Bitter Tears" that I would strongly recommend any of you purchase if you haven't already, and also maybe pick up a Johnny Cash Tribute Album from the late Floyd "Red Crow" Westerman (Sioux Nation)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floyd_Westerman



This song was written around the time of Vietnam, about a WW II Native American Hero, and let's just say there are many other Native American Vets that went to later wars overseas came back home, and found few opportunities available despite their sacrifices and military service, while their communities are neglected and suffering, regardless of whatever political party is in power in Washington DC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKDLQWEvubc

[NOVA Green]

Poorest Counties by MHI #3: Latino Counties in the Southwest

Three Counties of the poorest counties by MHI have an extremely large Latino Population (NM, CO, & TX), approximately 62-65% in Luna (NM), Costilla (CO), and 93% Zavala (TX).

What do these three counties have in common other than high rates of Poverty and majority Latino population?

1.) All three counties are located in areas where there was historic Spanish settlements, and large Spanish speaking settlements prior to the Texas Revolution and subsequent Mexican-American War.

2.) Historic Spanish-American (Hispanos) settlement patterns blur the traditional definitions of "Anglo" vs "Hispanic/Latino of any background" type Census Data... Unfortunately it is a very difficult exercise to try to quantify social identity based upon the "Old Spanish" vs "New Spanish" populations, but Costilla County (CO) appears to have the highest proportion of Hispanos of these counties, so need to take the "Anglo"/"Latino" breakdowns with a pinch of salt.

3.) A high proportion of the population directly employed in the agricultural sector, ranging from 6% in Zavala (TX) to 11% in Costilla (CO).

4.) An historically dramatically unequal structure of land ownership (Farmers vs Laborers) directly tied to the land allocation grants provided by the King of Spain.

5.) A declining voter turnout between '12 and '16 in 2/3 counties, with only a minor uptick in 1 county (CO) where VbM makes voting easier in poorer communities.

6.) A relatively aging Anglo population in 2/3 counties (NM & CO).

7.) A relatively high level of 3rd Party support in 2/3 Counties (NM & CO).

8.) An overall relatively older population in 2/3 counties (NM & CO).

9.) Swings towards Trump in all three counties

Ok--- Let's look at each individual County by Swing between '12 and '16

A.) Costilla County, Colorado---- +0.7% increase in votes '12-'16. (+20% R Swing)

Historically settled by Hispanos from New Mexico, as part of the Sangre de Cristo Land Grant, the "Castilla County Range Wars" (1960-2005), is still widely recalled by the locals, as yet another attempt by a settler population to destroy what was more of a collectivist structure of land ownership, quite common in Northern New Mexico, and even in the "New Lands" of Southern Colorado.

http://sdcnha.org/wp/costilla-county-extended-information/

http://www.denverpost.com/2005/05/24/labor-of-ancestral-love-cultivates-areas-heritage/

Lowest % of "Latino" population: 62% Latino- 35% White

Age: 41% of the population is 55+, and these numbers move to 39% (55-59 yrs)-46% (60-64 years) among the Anglo population of the County. Meanwhile 50% of the "Latino" population is <35 Years Old, with 15% of the total County population being Latinos <18 Years.

Industries: 11% of the workforce is employed in Agriculture which the highest in terms of Relative employment. Health Care (20.5%), Retail (15.8%), Construction (15.5%) are also relatively oversized in terms of Industry.

The largest private sector employer in the County is the Blanfort Inc potato processing plant, with the other top five employers being local school districts.

http://users.gojade.org/~blancaco/Blanfort.htm

There are now new "Range Wars" in Costilla County, that involves individuals swooping into the County, living in trailers, taking advantage of "communal" water rights, in order to run marijuana growing operations, without paying local taxes, and generally not being particularly involved in what is a relatively tight-knit rural community....

http://www.cpr.org/news/story/costilla-county-tempers-flare-fight-over-how-live

Politically: It is absolutely clear that there was a major swing towards Trump among both Anglos and Latinos in Costilla County....

Turnout increased marginally, but Trump gained 140 Votes > Romney, HRC lost 220 Votes vs Obama '12, and 3rd Party Votes don't explain the Trump gain in Net Votes, as opposed to the HRC Net lost.

B.) Luna County, New Mexico--- (-3% in Total Votes '12>'16)    +3% R Swing

62% Latino- 35% Anglo

Age: 32% of the population is 55+, and among the 55+ population Anglo numbers start at 49% and peak at 75%.

16% of the Population is Foreign Born, making it the highest of all three counties, and overall only 62% of the County is Latino (Lowest of the three). The Anglo population <18 is only between 13-20% of those age Demographics.

Industries: Agriculture is relatively disproportionate (8.1% of employment), and retail certainly appears to be well above the pack in terms of other industries (14.3%).

Population Concentration: 60% of the Population resides in one City Deming, which not totally uncommon in parts of the Western US....It's a Highway Town, and any of y'all that have ever driven from Texas to California (Or in reverse) likely stopped here to get gas, grab a bite to eat, and maybe a hotel room.

So here are a few articles that talk about the economic profile of the County... the variation between the two reports, is that one includes food processing plants as manufacturing and the other agriculture, or possibly one includes data prior to the closure of a large food processing plant in Deming some ten years back....

http://arrowheadcenter.nmsu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Luna-County-2013.pdf

www.wnmu.edu/sword/Luna%20County%20Economy.doc

Still.... the Pubs lost 200 Votes and the Dems lost 400 between '12 & 16.

3rd Party candidates bagged 8%, with Gary Johnson capturing 6.6%!!!

So: Turnout drops, increased support for 3rd Party Candidates, and Trump loses 1.3% off of Romney topline numbers....

Considering the fact that Anglo are massively disproportionate in the older voting range (55+), it does appear there was a minuscule swing towards Trump (Maybe?) among older Anglos, and a minuscule swing towards HRC among older Latinos, with younger voters heavily going 3rd Party (Johnson).

C.) Zavala County, Texas--- (-7% decrease in Vote '12>'16). (+9% R Swing '12>'16)

93% Latino- 7% Anglo

For anyone not familiar with the history of Zavala County, here is a "Reader's Digest" version

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zavala_County,_Texas

So, here you have a place where traditional Spanish Land Grants created an extremely unequal pattern of land ownership, and an agricultural boom in the early 1900s at the time of Mexican-Revolution provided a labor force to feed the demand for new agricultural products being produced within the region.

The "Anglos" ran the farms, while the workforce was overwhelmingly Mexican-American.

In '62/'63 attempts to unionize poor rural farmworkers met with some success, and of course most famously it is known as the birthplace of the Raza Unida political party/movement...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raza_Unida_Party

Age: 23% of the population is 55+ , with the Anglo proportion rising to 8% in the first bracket and 20% towards the later bracket.

Only 10% of the population is foreign born, making it the lowest of the three counties.

Economically: The lowest % of the workforce in Agriculture (6%). Interestingly enough 7% of the workforce is employed in the oil, gas, and mining industries, as a result of being on the edges of the Eagle Ford Shale Oil Boom in South Texas.

https://eaglefordshale.com/counties/zavala-county-tx/

This is a relatively new development, and doesn't really appear to have impacted local partisan political voting habits.

Politics: Only 2% voted for 3rd Party Candidates in '16, which is perhaps not particularly surprising considering how hard it is for 3rd Parties to get on the ballot in Texas, and additionally a relatively low level of 3rd Party support in general within Texas.

What the heck does this mean overall?

1.) HRC was not particularly popular among poor rural Latinos in the Southwest.

2.) Trump did appear to have some appeal among older Hispanos in Southern Colorado, considering the variance between '12 and '16 results can't solely be explained simply because of decreased voter turnout levels (Didn't occur here), nor solely a ton of Obama '12 Anglos voting Trump '16 (Statistically impossible).

3.) Trump did not appear to be particularly popular among both Latinos and Anglos in Luna County, New Mexico (Neither did HRC). Voting dipped 3% between '12 and '16, in a county where 55+ are heavily Anglo. Meanwhile you have 8% voting 3rd Party, in a County where Millennials are heavily Latino.

4.) How to explain the 7% decrease in Zavala County, Texas (93% Latino)? Right there, this accounts for most of the swing within the County.... The Republicans did increase their share 4% between '12 and '16, but honestly most of that appears to be a combination of a huge drop in voter turnout, with a possible combination of Anglo "Roughnecks" moving into the County during the peak of the Oil Boom. (Lived in Texas between these "Boom" years)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/812471-key-eagle-ford-wells-unlocking-value-in-zavala-county

https://eaglefordshale.com/counties/zavala-county-tx/

https://www.oilandgaslawyerblog.com/2013/08/good-buda-wells-in-zavala-coun.html

http://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/on-the-road-again/

Needless to say, whatever profits were gained from the temporary oil boom in Zavala County, it is still the poorest County in Texas, based upon Median Household Income.

Why don't the profits from energy extraction go directly towards the County where the natural resource wealth is being produced in terms of investment in local infrastructure, education, and health care???    Hell, it's Texas and Robber Baron Capitalism is still alive and well....

Anyways---- it looks pretty clear that the HRC "Latino/Latina" surge did not happen in the poorest majority Latino Counties in CO,NM, and TX.

[NOVA Green]

Felt like taking a break from the macro level "poorest County by state" cluster, and shift for a minute to look at the poorest places within the poorest county by State, since I was already looking at Maine detailed breakdowns:

1.) Maine--- Washington County Poorest County by MHI--- $ 35.6k

A.) Talmadge--- MHI $ 16.3k--- Pop 64
2012: (39 D- 57 R)    +16% R; 2016: (35 D- 60 R)   +25% R         +9% R Swing

B.) Vanceboro--- MHI $ 21.8k--- Pop 102
2012: (48 D- 49 R)  +1% R; 2016: (30 D- 61 R) +31% R      +30% R Swing

C.) Indian Township--- MHI $ 22.6k--- Pop 857
2012: (86 D- 10 R)   +76% D;  2016: (72 D- 23 R)  +49% R    +27% R Swing

Passamaquoddy Indian Township, is as the name suggests a Native American Reservation and 72.2% of the population identifies as "other", which usually in Census Speak means 1st Nation populations....  Unlike many other Native Areas, voter turnout increased between '12 and '16, and the Republicans went from 25 votes in '12 to 59 in '16....

2.) Maine- Piscataquis County- Highest % of people in Poverty (19.3%)

A.) Willimantic--- MHI $ 24.2k--- Pop 94
2012: (38 D- 57 R)  +19% R; 2016: (24 D- 69 R)   +45% R     +26% R Swing

B.) Sangerville-- MHI $ 27.9k--- Pop 1.4k
2012: (46 D- 50 R)  +4% R; 2016: (29 D- 64 R)    +35% R       +31% R Swing

C.) Wellington--- MHI $ 28.6k-- Pop 235
2012: (63 D- 31 R)   +32% D; 2016: (41 D- 53 R)  +12 R         +44% R Swing

[NOVA Green]

Updated to include 2016 Election Results from the Poorest Places in the Poorest Counites:

New Hampshire- Coos County- MHI $ 40.3kk--- 16.1% Below Poverty--Pop 32.5k
2012: (58 D- 40 R)   +18 D; 2016: (42 D- 51 R)  +9 R     +27% R Swing

1.) Wentworth--- MHI $17.1k--- Pop 54
2012: (35 D- 60 R)  +25 R;  2016: (28 D- 72 R)    +44 R   +19% Swing

Handful of Voters

2.) Stratford--- MHI $ 26.3k--- Pop 732
2012: (61 D- 38 R)   +23 R;  2016: (48 D- 46 R)    +2 D     +21% R Swing

(30% 60+ yrs); Ancestry- 27% French, 13% French-Canadian- 41% aged 25-64 employed; 31% of the population on Food Stamps- 12% of workforce agriculture, 14% Manufacturing; 31% with no high school diploma, 17% with higher than high school diploma.

3.) Cambridge-- MHI $ 27.9k--- Pop 19
2012: 2 Votes Obama- 1 Vote Romney; 2016: 1 Vote Clinton- 2 Trump

4.) Stewartson- MHI $ 29.0k-- Pop 821
2012: (45 D- 54 R)   +9 R--- 2016: (27 D- 65 R) +38 R     +29% R Swing

(35% 60+ years); Ancestry- 25% French, 3% French-Canadian- 45% aged 25-64 employed; 12% of pop on Food Stamps-- 16% of workforce agriculture, 16% hospitality, 10% manufacturing, 21% no high school diploma, 16% higher than HS Diploma

5.) Millsfield- MHI $ 33.8k- Pop 21
Handful of votes


Vermont--- Essex-  MHI $ 41.8k---14.3% below Fed Poverty- Pop 6.3k
2012: (55 D- 42 R)  +13 D; 2016: (35 D- 51 R)   +16 R      +29% R Swing

*** Bernie and 3rd Party a factor here

1.) Brighton-- MHI $ 27.6k--- Pop 986
2012: (56 D- 42 R)   +14 D;  2016: (41 D- 49 R)   +8 R       +22% R Swing

(32% 60+ years); Ancestry- 34% French, 7% French-Canadian; 49% 24-64 employed; 23% Food Stamps--- Industries- 17% Retail; 17% Education; 14% Construction; 24% No HS Diploma, 18% > HS Degree

2.) Brunswick- MHI $ 28.1k-- Pop 81
2012: (63 D- 37 R)   +26 D; 2016: (38 D- 50 R)  +12 R        +38% R Swing

3.) Granby- MHI $ 30.0k-- Pop 70
2012: (64 D- 34 R)  +30 D; 2016: (29 D- 54 R)    +25 R       +55% R Swing

4.) Lemington- MHI $ 30.6k--- Pop 139
2012: (54 D- 44 R)  +10 D; 2016: (33 D- 51 R)   +18 R        +28% R Swing

5.) Norton--- MHI $ 31.5k-- Pop 156
2012: (48 D- 47 R)   +1 D;  2016: (36 D- 55 R)    +19 R       +20% R Swing


Rhode Island- Providence Co-- MHI $50.4k--- 17.2% Poverty
2012: (67 D- 32 R)   +35 D; 2016: (58 D- 37 R)   +21 D       +14% R Swing

1.) Central Falls--- MHI 28.0k--- Pop 19.4k
2012: (86 D- 13 R)  +73 D; 2016: (80 D- 16 R)  +64 D          +9% R Swing

(12% 60+ Years); 24% Anglo, 54% Latino, 19% Black-- 55% 24 to 64 yrs employed; 39% Food Stamps; Industries- 21% Manufacturing, 20% administrative, 14% retail; 48% No HS Diploma; 12% > HS Degree

One of the most densely populated cities in the Northeast, the largest Latino population by % in Rhode Island, with Puerto Ricans making up the largest share of Latinos, the and overall one of the most ethnically diverse cities in New England.

Although turnout increased from '12>'16 still relatively low voter participation rates.

http://scholarworks.umb.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1099&context=gaston_pubs

2.) Woonsocket--- MHI $ 36.1k--- Pop 41.2k
2012: (66 D- 33 R)   +33 D; 2012: (50 D- 43 R)   +7 D        +26% R Swing

(17% 60+ years)--- 72% White, 13% Latino, 7% Black, 6% Asian--- Ancestry: 28% French, 13% French-Canadian; 10% Italian; 53% 25-64 employed; 27% Food Stamps; Retail 16%, Manufacturing 16%; 24% No HS Degree, 21% > HS Degree

3.) Providence--- MHI $ 37.6k--- Pop 178.1k
2012: (84 D- 14 R)   +70 D; 2016: (81 D- 14 R)   +67 D      +3% R Swing
+ 3.6 Voters '12>'16

(13% 60+ years)--- 36.7% White, 36.4% Latino, 16% Black, 7% Asian; Ancestry- 55% 25-64 employed; 29% Food Stamps; Industries--- Health Care 17%, Education 15%, Manufacturing 13%; 27% No HS Diploma, 34% > HS Diploma


So what does this tell us?

A spectacular collapse among French/French-Canadian voters in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont.... Even in a working-class factory City in Rhode Island. These are areas with some of the highest poverty levels in New England, where a significant segment of the population has left the labor force, a high level of unemployment, and large % of the population on food stamps.

Will many of these voters return to the Democratic Party in 2020, or is this the beginning of a realignment?

It is also notable that there were even swings towards Trump in Central Falls, despite this being the type of City in New England that one would imagine there would be little appeal.

Providence is a different case, and basically it was essentially a drop-off in Democratic support to 3rd Parties that caused the minor swing, and not any shift towards the 'Pubs. Sure there might have been a bit of swapping going on within the City with some Romney '12 voters shifting to Clinton '16 and visa versa, but without looking a precinct numbers, it will be hard to measure to extent to which this occurred in an overwhelmingly Democratic City.

At this point if Trump can hold his poor and WWC base in New Hampshire and Maine, and win back some of the Romney '12> Clinton '16 voters in the wealthier SE portions of those respective states, they will both flip Republican in 2020.











 

[NOVA Green]

One of the items that sometimes most confuses me about Atlas in recent years is the peculiar fixation on how wealthy voters have shifted between '12 and '16.

For every "rich" or "relatively wealthy" County or Place, there are a ton more "poor" or "lower income" communities, and obviously the poor/lower-income communities significantly outnumber the population of the rich/upper income communities.

Maybe it speaks to the economic and educational backgrounds of the vast majority of Atlas Posters, of all political persuasions, however simply ignoring the subject or couching it in simplistic terms such as "Muh WWC Voters in the MidWest", "Declining turnout among African-American Voters in the rural Deep South and Cities such as Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philly", "Rural Latino turnout in the Rio Grande Valley and NM/CO). "Native Americans didn't like Clinton" neglects a true and rigorous examination of how the poorest counties in the US voted by State.

Rant Aside.... Poorest Counties #3: Misc Western States (WA, OR, CO, NV, WY)

The poorest counties in these five states share an interesting number of similarities and differences with Groups #1 and # 2 (Heavily Native American Counties, Heavily Latino Counties), with some additional add-ons.

1.) California-- Siskiyou County--- MHI $ 37.5k--- 22.6% Poverty--- Pop 44.5k

2012: (40.2 D- 55.4 D) +15.2% R; 2016: (35.3% D- 55.3% R)   +20.0% R  (+4.8% R Swing)
2012: 20.0k Votes---- 2016: 20.5k Votes

Age: (30% 60+ Years)--- Race/Ethnicity--- 79% White, 11% Latino
Employment/Food Stamps--- 44.8% 25-64 Years Employed--- 12.2% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: Farming 3.5%, Social Svcs 2.7%, 15.6% Administrative
Relative Industries: Agriculture 8.0%, Gvt 7.1%, Health Care 17.0%, Education 10.5%
Educational Attainment: 32.9% > HS Degree, 11.0% no HS Degree

So, here we have a heavily White County that is relatively Poor based upon MHI, very old in terms of age, where there was a net decrease of Republican support between '12 and '16.

It is actually a bit remarkable that there wasn't a dramatic swing towards Trump in this County. I suspect part of the reason might be that although it is a poor county in terms of income that the educational level of some of the California retirees likely made the Trumpista message less appealing, especially considering the 17% of the County population employed in the Health Care sector, where an associates degree or post HS is standard, tending to the needs of an increasingly aging retiree population.

2.) California--- Tulare County--- MHI $ 37.7k--- 27.2% Poverty---  Pop 446.6k

2012: (41.2 D- 56.2 R)   +15.0% R;  2016: (41.7 D- 51.1 R) + 9.4% R     (+5.6% D Swing)
2012: (101.3k Total Votes);  2016: (114.1k Total Votes)

Age: (15%- 60+); Race/Ethnicity (32% White, 61% Latino)--- 52-71% Pop 55+ is Anglo
Employment/Food Stamps--- 53% 24-65 Employed; 21.4% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: Farming 14.4%, Law Enforcement 2.3%, Material Movement 4.8%
Industries: Agriculture 17.9%, Wholesale Sales 4.6%, Gvt 6.4%, Educ 8.9%
Educational Attainment: 38.4% > HS Degree, 18.8% No HS Degree

Here we have a heavily Latino County that voted for Trump, although with a notable Democratic Swing.... Key item is looking at the share of Anglos of key voting age, combined with a large segment of the population working in the Agricultural sector. It's pretty clear that there was a significant increase in Latino turnout, of whom many of the younger voters went 3rd Party.

It will be interesting to watch places like Tulare County over the next decade, considering that this county alone accounts for over 50% of a Congressional District in California, and the aging Anglos and 3rd Generation Mexican-American foreman on the farms will not be able to maintain their current political control over the County for much more than a decade.

3.) Nevada--- Mineral County--- MHI $42.2k---- Poverty Rate--- 18.0%---- Pop 4.7k

2012: (42.4 D- 53.1 R)    +10.7 R---- 2016: (31.9 D- 59.0 R)   +27.1 R   (+16.4% R Swing)
2012: (2.0k Total Votes);  2016: (2.0k Total Votes)

Age: (32% 60+ Years); Race/Ethnicity: 65.8% White, 13.3% Other, 11.5% Latino, 4.0% Asian
(75-80% Pop 45+ is White)
Employment/Food Stamps: 41.9% 24-65 Yrs Employed; 14.4% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: Fire Fighting (8.7%), Administrative (17.6%); Education (8.4%)
Industries: 20.6% Gvt, Oil/Gas Mining 4.2%, Mfg 7.8%
Educational Attainment: 19.7% > HS Degree; 11.9% No HS Degree

So this is a County that is over 13% Native American, a Homeland of the Northern Piute Nation...

Significant swing towards Trump, as well as a net increase of total 'Pub vote share....

Older County with relatively low levels of educational attainment where the vast majority of the voters are Anglos > 55 years, where there is disproportionate employment in Fire Fighting and Energy Sectors....

4.) Nevada- Pershing County--- MHI $54.4k---- 18.3% Poverty--- Pop 6.8k

2012: (33.6 D- 61.9 R)  +28.3 R;  2016 (21.7 D- 70.8 R)  +49.1 R      (+20.8 % R Swing)
2012: (1884 Votes); 2016: (2.0k Votes)

Age: (19% 60+ Yrs)--- Race/Ethnicity--- 67.5% White, 22.5% Latino, 3.7% Black,  3.6% Other
(75-80% 45+ White)
Employment/Food Stamps: 36.4% 24-65 Employed; 15.5% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: Farming 4.2%, Science 5.6%, Law Enforcement 3.5%, Construction 15.7%, Mgmt 9.9%
Industries: Agriculture 10.7%, Oil/Gas/Mining- 23.9%, Gvt 10.6%
Educational Attainment: 16.1% > HS Degree; 21.1% No HS Degree

So here you have a scene where the vast majority of voters are White, especially older voters, and additionally a disproportionate sector of employment is based off of the energy sector, as well as to a lesser extent law enforcement/gvt.

5.) Oregon- Malheur County--- MHI $ 37.6k--- 24.9% Poverty--- Pop 30.9k

2012: (27.7 D- 68.8 R)   +41.1 R; 2016: (21.5+ D- 68.9 R)---  +47.4 R (+6.3% R Swing)
2012: (9956 Total Votes); 2016: (10.4k Total Votes)

Age: (20% 60+)---  Race/Ethnicity--- 63.0% White, 31.6% Latino
(71-85% 45+ Years White)
Employment/Food Stamps: 45.1% 24-65 Yrs; 25.3% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: Law Enforcement 3.2%; Farming 8.6%, Material Mvmt 3.8%, Mgmt 12.3%
Industries: Agriculture 16.3%, Gvt 8.8%
Educational Attainment: 22.3% > HS Degree; 17.5% No HS Degree

So here you have a County that although there is a large a growing Latino Population, the vast majority of voters in the County are older Anglos. It does appear that there was a bit of a Latino "surge", that likely explains why it was one of the few places in Eastern Oregon where Trump did not increase his margins over Romney '12 %.

6.) Oregon- Wheeler County--- MHI $ 34.2k--- Poverty 21.4%--- Pop 1.3k

2012: (31.0 D- 63.5+ R)    +32.5 R;  2016: (19.0 D- 72.3 R)  +53.3 R   (+20.8% R Swing)
2012: (858 Total Votes)--- 2016 (818 Total Votes)

Age: (40% 60+ Yrs)---- Race/Ethnicity--- 94.3% White, 2.6% Latino
Employment/Food Stamps--- 50.4% 24-65 Employed; 14.1% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: Farming 9.8%; Law Enforcement 2.3%, Construction 8.6%, Mgmt 19.6%
Industries: Agriculture 18.9%, Education 13.0%
Educational Attainment: 23.5% > HS Degree, 11.4% No HS Degree

So, very old and White County by age, with a disproportionate amount of individuals employed in the ag sector, of whom 1/5 are essentially running their own farms.

7.) Washington--- Columbia County--- MHI $40.0k--- Poverty 15.2%--- Pop  2.2k

2012: (28.3 D- 68.8 R)   +40.5 R;  2016: (23.6 D- 67.2 R)  +43.6 R    (+3.1% R Swing)
2012: (2280 Total Votes)--- 2016: (2.2k Total Votes)

Age: (32% 60+ Yrs)---  Race/Ethnicity---- 88.9% White, 6.3% Latino
(93% of 45+ White)
Relative Occupations: Personal Care 10.4%, Social Svcs 4.0%, Farming 3.7%, Facilities 7.0%, Mgmt 14.9%
Industries: Agriculture 11.8%, Health Care 21.4%
Educational Attainment: 25.7% > HS Degree, 13.9% No HS Degree

So here we have a decrease in 'Pub vote % from '12>'16, despite in theory it being a prime Trump Demographic when you look at Race/ethnicity and Educational attainment.

8.) Washington--- Whitman County--- MHI $ 43.8k/ Poverty 20.8%--- Pop 45.5k

2012: (46.5+ D- 49.3 R)    +2.8 R;   2016: (45.2 D- 41.1 R)    +4.1 D     (+6.9% D Swing)
2012: (17.3k Total Votes);  2016: (18.0k Total Votes)

Age: (14% 60+ Yrs)--- 28% 18-21 Yrs; 37% 18-24 Yrs
Race/Ethnicity: 81.3% White, 7.3% Asian, 4.8% Latino
Employed/Food Stamps: 52.8% 24-65 Yrs/ 9.7% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: 3.2% Science, 15.3% Education, 9.4% Food Service
Industry: 36.2% Education, 5.3% Agriculture, 8.2% Hospitality
Educational Attainment: 57.3% > HS Diploma, 3.8% No HS Diploma

Needless to say this is a college County, home of Washington State University which has a total enrollment of 29.7k Students....

Still WSU is widely known as a much more conservative University campus within Washington State, and it definitely stood out as one of few Romney '12 > Clinton '16 County flips....

9.) Wyoming- Albany County--- MHI $44.5k--- 20.1% Poverty--- Pop 36.7k

2012: (45.8 D- 48.3 R)    +2.5 R;   2016: (40.4 D- 44.6 R)   +4.2 R     (+1.7% R Swing)
2012: (16.3k Total Votes)--- 2016: (17.1k Total Votes)

Age: (13% 60+ Yrs)--- 17% 18-21 Yrs--- 29% 18-24 Yrs
Race/Ethnicity: 84.3% White, 9.0% Latino, 3.0% Asian
Employment/Food Stamps: 63.8% Employed--- 5.2% Food Stamps
Relative Occupations: 2.3% Computers/Math, 16.2% Education, 2.4% Science
Industry: 32.7% Education, 5.7% Professional
Educational Attainment: 58.2% > HS Degree, 4.7% No HS Degree

So to summarize:

1.) We have two of the poorest counties in the West that are basically University counties (Albany, WY and Whitman, WA) where support dropped off for both Democratic and Republican candidates alike to the hands of 3rd Party Voters. These are relatively Conservative University campuses and are definitely on a watch list to see how voting patterns of Millennials shift in the Presidential Election come 2020.

2.) Emerging Latino Counties (Malheur, OR and Tulare CA) where the 'Pub % remained constant or decreased, despite Millennial Latino support for 3rd Party Candidates....

3.) Aging Anglo Counties where new jobs are heavily dependent upon providing health care services to an aging population where there was no gain for Trump (Siskiyou, CA and Columbia WA).

4.) An energy sector County in NV where most of the voters are aging Anglos (Pershing)

5.) A significant Native American County in NV that appears to have swung heavily towards Trump (Mineral).

6.) A small wheat farming county in Oregon where 40% of the population is >60.

Anyone have thoughts on all this, since I haven't totally had a chance to digest yet after running the data on these counties?