UT-03: Any thoughts?

[Coraxion]

As you may know, Chaffetz resigned so the seat is vacant. A special election will be hold on November 7th. I think there's no chance in hell that the Democrat can win. Trump at the top of the ticket didn't drag down downballot Republicans last year, so Trump definitely isn't gonna drag them down when he's not on the ticket.

And because the Democrat can't win, the race won't be hyped. I think the Democrat will over-perform, though. That means that the media/CW will get to the point and talk about the swing in the Democrat's direction, rather than who won.

Thoughts on UT-03?

[TheSaint250]

How do you think the new UUP will do?

[Tender Branson]

The only "interesting" thing will be if the Democratic candidate passes 1/3 of the vote ...

[Zioneer]

How do you think the new UUP will do?

Less than 5%. They couldn't even formally register for a party in time, and if they get on the ballot, it'll only be due to a judge's order. They're a mess.

As for the Democrat, they'll get 35% at best.

The real question is which Republican will win the primary:

1) Former state representative Chris Herrod, a proto-Trumpist who was anti-immigration, anti-refugee, and an angry loudmouth long before Trump, and who is the choice of the convention delegates.

2) Provo Mayor John Curtis, an ideological moderate or pragmatist who is absurdly popular in Provo, the population center of the district (something like 80+ percent approval). He ran as a Democrat for state senate in 2000, which is something he'll be attacked on.

3) Tanner Ainge, son of BYU basketball and Boston Celtics legend Danny Ainge. Has no concrete views or policies. I consider him a trust fund kid, since his most notable feature is throwing his dad's money around to get on the primary ballot via signature gathering.

Of the three, I think Curtis is the front-runner and most likely to win. Herrod was chosen as the delegate choice, but he's much too conservative for a primary electorate. Ainge is a trust fund kid with no ideological backing. Curtis, however, has high name recognition and is beloved by most Provoans, and will likely have support in the more moderate part of the district in Salt Lake County.

[Canis]

McMullin said he might run https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrumpSpam/comments/5zyq0c/i_am_evan_mcmullin_former_independent/df23pv6/

[Zioneer]

McMullin said he might run https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrumpSpam/comments/5zyq0c/i_am_evan_mcmullin_former_independent/df23pv6/

He isn't running in the special this year, however. And I think he wants to go for Senator in 2018 instead of the House anyway.

[SATW]

 John Curtis seems the best.

[136or142]

Most of the candidates have already been chosen at the respective conventions.

From politics1.com

District 3 - Special Election 2017:
Filing Deadline (Major Parties): May 26, 2017
Filing Deadline (Independents): June 12, 2017
Primary: August 15, 2017 - General: November 7, 2017
[ Jason Chaffetz (R)* - Resigned effective June 30, 2017. ]
Tanner Ainge (R) - Businessman, Attorney & Son of Boston Celtics GM Danny Ainge
John Curtis (R) - Provo Mayor, Businessman & '07 State Rep. Candidate
Chris Herrod (R) - Ex-State Rep., Loan Officer, Ex-Teacher & '12 US Sen. Candidate
Kathryn Allen (D) - Physician
Jason Christensen (IAP) - Audio Systems Consultant & Frequent Candidate
Joe Buchman (Libt) - State Party Chair, College Professor, '08 US Rep. Nom & '16 State Sen. Nom.
Jim Bennett (United Utah) - Party Exec. Director, Marketing Writer & Son of Ex-US Sen Bob Bennett
Sean Whalen (Ind) - Businessman & Motivational Speaker
Russell Paul Roesler (Write-In)

I expect Chris Herrod to win the Republican Primary.  He also won at the Republican convention.

[Zioneer]

Most of the candidates have already been chosen at the respective conventions.

From politics1.com

District 3 - Special Election 2017:
Filing Deadline (Major Parties): May 26, 2017
Filing Deadline (Independents): June 12, 2017
Primary: August 15, 2017 - General: November 7, 2017
[ Jason Chaffetz (R)* - Resigned effective June 30, 2017. ]
Tanner Ainge (R) - Businessman, Attorney & Son of Boston Celtics GM Danny Ainge
John Curtis (R) - Provo Mayor, Businessman & '07 State Rep. Candidate
Chris Herrod (R) - Ex-State Rep., Loan Officer, Ex-Teacher & '12 US Sen. Candidate
Kathryn Allen (D) - Physician
Jason Christensen (IAP) - Audio Systems Consultant & Frequent Candidate
Joe Buchman (Libt) - State Party Chair, College Professor, '08 US Rep. Nom & '16 State Sen. Nom.
Jim Bennett (United Utah) - Party Exec. Director, Marketing Writer & Son of Ex-US Sen Bob Bennett
Sean Whalen (Ind) - Businessman & Motivational Speaker
Russell Paul Roesler (Write-In)

I expect Chris Herrod to win the Republican Primary.  He also won at the Republican convention.

Republican primary voters are significantly more moderate-ish than convention voters. For example, they overwhelmingly chose Governor Herbert over his convention-backed far-right opponent Jonathan Johnson last year, and in 2012 primary voters gave Hatch the win over his far-right challenger Dan Dan Liljenquist.

So convention voters choose the conservative firebrand, and primary voters generally choose the establishment-y types. That's how it usually goes in Utah, though only a few convention battles went to a primary because of the rules.

So I would argue that Curtis has the best shot at winning the primary, though Tanner Ainge might split the non-convention vote and allow Herrod to win.

Not much else is of note on that list, besides Jim Bennett's ability to be on the ballot as a United Utah candidate being in question due to not filing on time. He may have to settle for being an Independent with UUP backing.

Also Jason Christensen of the IAP is of note solely because last year, also as a IAP candidate, he said that a LGBT teen who committed suicide "committed the sins of homosexuality and murder". Also, he has run against John Curtis before, as has Herrod.

[Cactus Jack]

Well, since no Democrat in hell will ever stand a chance in this district, I guess Curtis is the man to pull for. I'll take an establishment Utah Republican over the far-right likes of Chaffetz any day.

[jamestroll]

haha Curtis actually ran for state Senate I believe as a Democrat in the early 2000s.

I never lived in Provo but have had several friends in Provo and I know John Curtis is well respected there. And too be frank.. most residents are too young to really remember Curtis as a Democrat haha. Utah, especially Utah County, has the youngest median age in the country.

[Cactus Jack]

haha Curtis actually ran for state Senate I believe as a Democrat in the early 2000s.

I never lived in Provo but have had several friends in Provo and I know John Curtis is well respected there. And too be frank.. most residents are too young to really remember Curtis as a Democrat haha. Utah, especially Utah County, has the youngest median age in the country.

I think that nicely reinforces my urge to endorse him on this one. I imagine he'd vote significantly closer to the center than Chaffetz, yes?

[Classic Conservative]

Well, since no Democrat in hell will ever stand a chance in this district, I guess Curtis is the man to pull for. I'll take an establishment Utah Republican over the far-right likes of Chaffetz any day.

Chaffetz is far-right? Chaffetz is your run of the mill establishment Republican. I support Herrod, he was the Cruz Chairman in UT for 2016.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Well, since no Democrat in hell will ever stand a chance in this district, I guess Curtis is the man to pull for. I'll take an establishment Utah Republican over the far-right likes of Chaffetz any day.

Chaffetz is far-right? Chaffetz is your run of the mill establishment Republican. I support Herrod, he was the Cruz Chairman in UT for 2016.

When we say "far-right", we mean "crazy" in general, not "as crazy as classic conservative".

[Zioneer]

Well, since no Democrat in hell will ever stand a chance in this district, I guess Curtis is the man to pull for. I'll take an establishment Utah Republican over the far-right likes of Chaffetz any day.

Chaffetz is far-right? Chaffetz is your run of the mill establishment Republican. I support Herrod, he was the Cruz Chairman in UT for 2016.

Chaffetz was the original "challenge the incumbent for heresies on immigration" proto-Tea Party type. That's how he beat Chris Cannon, and he hasn't moved left or right since, everyone else has just been moving that way.

[jamestroll]

haha Curtis actually ran for state Senate I believe as a Democrat in the early 2000s.

I never lived in Provo but have had several friends in Provo and I know John Curtis is well respected there. And too be frank.. most residents are too young to really remember Curtis as a Democrat haha. Utah, especially Utah County, has the youngest median age in the country.

I think that nicely reinforces my urge to endorse him on this one. I imagine he'd vote significantly closer to the center than Chaffetz, yes?

Maybe very very slightly.

I have never exactly been a fan of Chaffetz but I will admit he is one of those "broken clocks are right twice a day types".

I remember his comments on Iphones versus Health Insurance. He was not exactly wrong on that comment but it came out as awfully condescending.

[_]

I'm going to go with Likely R here based on previous Special Elections, should be easy hold though.

[Badger]

John Curtis seems the best.

[JoshPA]

As you may know, Chaffetz resigned so the seat is vacant. A special election will be hold on November 7th. I think there's no chance in hell that the Democrat can win. Trump at the top of the ticket didn't drag down downballot Republicans last year, so Trump definitely isn't gonna drag them down when he's not on the ticket.

And because the Democrat can't win, the race won't be hyped. I think the Democrat will over-perform, though. That means that the media/CW will get to the point and talk about the swing in the Democrat's direction, rather than who won.

Thoughts on UT-03?

Republicans win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A federal judge has ordered that the United Utah Party candidate, ex-Republican Jim Bennett, must be allowed on the ballot in November.  The Lieutenant Governor's office had previously blocked the UUP from appearing on the ballot.  http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/345330-ex-republican-who-left-over-trump-allowed-to-run-as-independent-in-race

[smoltchanov]

Chaffetz is far-right? Chaffetz is your run of the mill establishment Republican.

These two notions became almost synonymous as of late...

[TheSaint250]

Jim Bennett will easily take the seat and then run for Senate next year.  From there he will turn UUP into a state powerhouse and make it a one-party dictatorship that...unites Utah.

In all seriousness, I'm kind of interested to see how he does

[Gone to Carolina]

My guess would be the Democrats pull a percentage somewhere in the Mid-30s with the UUP managing  to break 10%. Republican Hold.