Most vulnerable House members/most likely House districts to flip

[This is Eharding, guys]

Does anyone have a list or an index of the thirty or so most vulnerable House members in 2018, on both the Republican and Democratic sides?

[Andy Hine]

http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index_.pdf

This should help.

[Mike Thick]

Darrell Issa starts off as the most vulnerable, I think. He barely won in a decent climate for House Republicans, and in a Trump midterm, I think he probably starts as a slight underdog.

[TheSaint250]

Not a candidate who's running but FL-27 is almost a certain flip

[Nyvin]

I'd say Comstock in VA-10 is pretty vulnerable.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Martha McSally, Mike Coffman, Will Hurd, and Rod Blum are in pretty hot water.

[Cactus Jack]

Issa is finished, and Valadao should theoretically be in even more trouble. Coffman is probably also done, what with Polis all but guaranteed the governor's mansion.

Given that Iowa lurched just about as hard right as Ohio last year, I don't see Blum or Young going down. I'm also not confident that Hurd will lose; he's a visible minority in a minority-heavy district, he's fairly moderate and not a friend of Trump, and that road trip livestream with O'Rourke gave him a pretty significant popularity boost from what I've read. Of course, the Democrats have also made the baffling mistake of running Gallego for the third time, so that also helps him.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

HIGH RISK OF PARTY CHANGE:
J. Denham (R, CA-10)
D. Issa (R, CA-49)
M. Coffman (R, CO-06)
S. Murphy (D, FL-07)
C. Crist (D, FL-13)
FL-27, vacated as a result of inc. I. Ros-Lehtinen (R) retiring
T. Walz (D, MN-01)
J. Lewis (R, MN-02)
R. Nolan (D, MN-08)
D. Bacon (R, NE-02)
Carol Shea-Porter (D, NH-01)
NV-03, vacated as a result of inc. J. Rosen (D) running for Governor of Nevada
W. Hurd (R, TX-23)
B. Comstock (R, VA-10)

MODERATE RISK OF PARTY CHANGE:
M. Roby (R, AL-02)
T. O'Halleran (D, AZ-01)
M. McSally (R, AZ-02)
A. Bera (D, CA-07)
D. Valadao (R, CA-21)
S. Knight (R, CA-25)
C. Curbelo (R, FL-26)
K. Handel (R, GA-06)
B. Schneider (D, IL-10)
R. Blum (R, IA-01)
K. Yoder (R, KS-03)
B. Poliquin (R, ME-02)
A. Kuster (D, NH-02)
J. Gottheimer (D, NJ-05)
L. Lance (R, NJ-07)
R. Kihuen (D, NV-04)
J. Faso (R, NY-19)
C. Tenney (R, NY-22)
B. Fitzpatrick (R, PA-08)
M. Cartwright (D, PA-17)
J. Culberson (R, TX-07)
P. Session (R, TX-32)

SLIGHT RISK OF PARTY CHANGE:
S. Carbajal (D, CA-24)
M. Walters (R, CA-45)
R. Estes (R, KS-04)
J. Bergman (R, MI-01)
F. Upton (R, MI-06)
T. Walberg (R, MI-07)
M. Bishop (R, MI-08)
G. Gianforte (R, MT-AL)
T. Suozzi (D, NY-03)
S. Chabot (R, OH-01)


I was factoring in the political climate mostly when adding Republican incumbents to this list, but didn't really do the same for Democratic incumbents, so most of these Democratic incumbents should be safer than they may look on this list. I'm sure I'm missing a couple key races but I think I hit most of them. As you can tell, California, Texas, Nevada, Minnesota, and Florida are going to be important states to watch.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I'd throw Rohrabacher in the "slight risk" category if you're putting Mimi Walters in there.

[Donerail]

Crist (and maybe Murphy?) will be fine. Crist in particular is raising enough to scare off anyone serious. Look at FL-18 if you're looking for the Florida seat most likely to flip after FL-27.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A guy not mentioned enough is a Katko. For some reason he emas ts to pick a fight with the top democrat recruit for his seat (Miner)

[Badger]

http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index_.pdf

This should help.

Wow. It's surprising to see how few Democrats there are in strongly Trump districts outside of Minnesota. Basically one, Matthew Cartwright. That's rather telling.

[This is Eharding, guys]

http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index_.pdf

This should help.

Wow. It's surprising to see how few Democrats there are in strongly Trump districts outside of Minnesota. Basically one, Matthew Cartwright. That's rather telling.

And Romney got less than 44% in Cartwright's district.
https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col18+from+1T2Q2YVeHXfCqiV466yZqciXyOF48DMGD3cZ2hxac&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=37.05628800013914&lng=-93.02554824999993&t=1&z=4&l=col18&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=GEOCODABLE
Yes, the GOP waves in 2010 and 2014 absolutely did a number on our party.