Fmr. Gov. Beshear vs. Mitch McConnell
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  Fmr. Gov. Beshear vs. Mitch McConnell
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Author Topic: Fmr. Gov. Beshear vs. Mitch McConnell  (Read 1717 times)
Bidenworth2020
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« on: July 05, 2017, 02:33:04 PM »

discuss and I recommend using this site to make a county map-mapchart.net
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2017, 04:22:08 PM »

Bronz, is that you?
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At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2017, 06:41:05 PM »

Beshear defeats Mitch 56-42
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #3 on: July 05, 2017, 06:44:02 PM »


Sadly no, we just have another Bronz quality match-up maker on our hands.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2017, 07:50:40 PM »

Mitch defeats Beshear 55-43.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: July 05, 2017, 09:15:18 PM »

Beshear 49-45.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #6 on: July 05, 2017, 09:24:20 PM »


This sounds like a reasonable result. Voters often do seem to distinguish between federal and state races, at least in some states. Kentucky Democrats stopped being competitive at the federal level in the 90s.

The only way I could see it being closer is if there was a recession or if for some other reason the bottom really fell out from underneath Trump in 2020.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: July 05, 2017, 10:40:22 PM »


This sounds like a reasonable result. Voters often do seem to distinguish between federal and state races, at least in some states. Kentucky Democrats stopped being competitive at the federal level in the 90s.

The only way I could see it being closer is if there was a recession or if for some other reason the bottom really fell out from underneath Trump in 2020.

Exactly, McConnell's power in the state is nothing to scoff at, and it would literally take the perfect storm to even have an ok chance against him.
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Coraxion
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« Reply #8 on: July 05, 2017, 10:42:30 PM »

As long as Beshear hasn't screwed up since he left office like Bayh did... it could be competitive.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2017, 01:16:32 AM »

Best case scenario would be McConnell's race against Bruce Lunsford in 2008, and you'd have to adjust that result for how much more Republican Kentucky has become since then.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2017, 07:53:12 AM »

Best case scenario would be McConnell's race against Bruce Lunsford in 2008, and you'd have to adjust that result for how much more Republican Kentucky has become since then.

Yeah, that was our last best chance at beating McConnell and we blew it by nominating a really weak candidate.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2017, 08:25:37 PM »

McConnell wins by at least 8 or 9.
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Cynthia
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« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2017, 09:36:50 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2017, 09:38:21 PM by Cynthia »

Mitch defeats Beshear by 4-5 if Trump in the high 20s/low 30s.
Otherwise Mitch comfortably.
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At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2017, 10:00:30 PM »

Mitch defeats Beshear by 4-5 if Trump in the high 20s/low 30s.
Otherwise Mitch comfortably.
Mitch McConnell is extremely unpopular in Kentucky. In the 2014 polling, there were times when he trailed Allison Grimes. He didn't take the lead until Mitch McConnell's PACs started to blitz a bunch of ads comparing her to Obama who they claimed wanted to take away their guns and support ISIS. Since Obama is gone, Mitch wouldn't have a black bogeyman to turn the people's fears towards.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2017, 10:57:02 PM »

Also worth noting that Steve Beshear DID run against Mitch McConnell for US Senate...in 1996.

That race was 55.5% R - 42.9% D. In a presidential year when Bill Clinton won the state. In the mid-'90s when Kentucky was much more structurally Democratic than it is today.
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At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder
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« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2017, 11:01:22 PM »

Also worth noting that Steve Beshear DID run against Mitch McConnell for US Senate...in 1996.

That race was 55.5% R - 42.9% D. In a presidential year when Bill Clinton won the state. In the mid-'90s when Kentucky was much more structurally Democratic than it is today.
That was when Mitch McConnell was a more popular moderate nobody in the Senate. Since then, he has been the face of Republican corruption as the leader of the party in the Senate.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2017, 11:11:55 PM »

Also worth noting that Steve Beshear DID run against Mitch McConnell for US Senate...in 1996.

That race was 55.5% R - 42.9% D. In a presidential year when Bill Clinton won the state. In the mid-'90s when Kentucky was much more structurally Democratic than it is today.
That was when Mitch McConnell was a more popular moderate nobody in the Senate. Since then, he has been the face of Republican corruption as the leader of the party in the Senate.

Part of the reason so many Republicans have relatively poor approval ratings is because a good chunk of those disapproving are Republicans who think the officeholder isn't right-wing enough. But when the chips are down, they'll vote for that person again and certainly aren't going to vote for a Democrat.

I think you saw this effect more pronounced in 2014, when McConnell and a lot of other disliked Republican incumbents get reelected more easily than you'd expect them to.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2017, 12:09:19 AM »

Also worth noting that Steve Beshear DID run against Mitch McConnell for US Senate...in 1996.

That race was 55.5% R - 42.9% D. In a presidential year when Bill Clinton won the state. In the mid-'90s when Kentucky was much more structurally Democratic than it is today.
That was when Mitch McConnell was a more popular moderate nobody in the Senate. Since then, he has been the face of Republican corruption as the leader of the party in the Senate.

Part of the reason so many Republicans have relatively poor approval ratings is because a good chunk of those disapproving are Republicans who think the officeholder isn't right-wing enough. But when the chips are down, they'll vote for that person again and certainly aren't going to vote for a Democrat.

I think you saw this effect more pronounced in 2014, when McConnell and a lot of other disliked Republican incumbents get reelected more easily than you'd expect them to.
This is very true. Republicans are more critical of their own their Democrats (at least on the basis of ideology). This is why Lindsay Graham and John McCain are unpopular in their red states, but never face credible opposition that gets within 10 points of defeating them.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: July 07, 2017, 12:22:11 AM »

Many other more competitive races out there. Putting up a real fight here is a waste of time, especially with so much potential elsewhere. Let's just select a sacrificial lamb and be done with it.
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SATW
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« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2017, 01:27:53 AM »



This was the 1996 election when McConnell beat Beshear.
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Skye
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« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2017, 07:33:49 AM »

Remember when people thought ALG could beat McConnell in 2014? Those were the times.
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windjammer
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« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2017, 07:48:15 AM »

KY is too republican now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2017, 08:33:56 AM »

Beshear would lose, but he's probably the only Democrat that could give McConnell anything close to resembling a race.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2017, 08:52:46 AM »

Remember when people thought ALG could beat McConnell in 2014? Those were the times.

2014 was the wrong year and she ran a worse campaign than anyone expected.  It's always easy to play Monday morning quarterback, but Democrats were right to try to seriously contest that seat.  If McConnell were up in 2018 instead of 2020, I'd say it might be worth trying to run a strong wave insurance candidate.  Hopefully Andy Beshear runs for Governor against Bevin in 2019 and the DCCC is able to recruit James Gray to run in 2018 in KY-6 (I think Gray could defeat Barr in a Democratic or even neutral year with a strong campaign; Beshear would have a narrower path to victory, but IIRC Bevin's not terribly popular).
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Skye
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2017, 11:43:44 AM »


What is this, the 90's? What kind of incumbent republican would get 42% in 2018 in KY of all places.
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