Republicans are going to gain 100 seats

[publicunofficial]

And again, one can point to Corbyn's Labour on how to do it right:

[BudgieForce]

Who cares? It doesn't say any of these are going to be a slogan, just that you can buy the sticker. Dont get hung up on something so trivial.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

And again, one can point to Corbyn's Labour on how to do it right:

<snip>

Seriously. A good, clear, positive message.

One of the pleasant surprises of that campaign was how solidly on-message Corbyn was.

[BuckeyeNut]

Why am I in this party.

Your avatar would indicate you aren't.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Why am I in this party.

Your avatar would indicate you aren't.

My voter registration indicates otherwise, as you well know.

[Kingpoleon]

When the Democrats send their slogans, they're not sending their best. They're not sending you.

[DrScholl]

That would only happen through massive fraud, which isn't out of the question under Trump.

If you are triggered by an email about stickers, then that is your problem. Get over yourself.

[DrScholl]

Second, when it comes down to it, any substantial gains made by Democrats next year will because of Trump and Republican failure, just like 2006.

[jamestroll]

We have 193 Democratic House Members currently.

Please list the 100 of them you think that will lose next year due to a slogan?

Seriously the worst of worst case scenerio for Democrats in 2018 for house elections would be a single digit net loss. That would be either Trump has seen his popularity sky rocket or midterms really do have a Republican boost.

It seems in recent times that midterms favor the party out of power and the gop concurrently but its obviously not ironclad.

[Yank2133]

lol, give me a break.

There will be over hundred races with each individual candidates having their own slogan and message.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There is segment of the left that bitches about Democrats on everything. Trust me, if the Democrats do well next year, there will still be that one asshole who whines about the result, even though he likely didn't get off his ass to vote.

[Yank2133]

Yes because 2018 will be decide by the DCCC's stickers

2018 will be decided by Democrats either giving people a reason to vote for them or not. These stickers point towards the "Not" side.

This isn't how mid-term elections work.

2018 will be decided by Trump. If his numbers are in the tank, Democrats will do well. If they are fine, then the GOP will be fine.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Yes because 2018 will be decide by the DCCC's stickers

2018 will be decided by Democrats either giving people a reason to vote for them or not. These stickers point towards the "Not" side.

This isn't how mid-term elections work.

2018 will be decided by Trump. If his numbers are in the tank, Democrats will do well. If they are fine, then the GOP will be fine.

His numbers will be decided overwhelmingly by if we're in a recession or not. The only serious outside factor that could benefit the Democrats given that Trump's approval rating has stabilized at 39% for almost 6 weeks straight now (538).

The country is way too polarized and way too disgruntled with politics to care at all...unless their pocketbooks are hit. It's not as if most national level Democrats in D.C. have any clue what they're doing. State and local Dems probably understand the electorate though.

[Virginiá]

The country is way too polarized and way too disgruntled with politics to care at all...unless their pocketbooks are hit.

Sure, it might take tangible effects on their living situation to go much further down, but I hardly think his approvals hovering in the mid-high 30s precludes flipping the House. Democrats are already posting generic polls that suggest the necessary House PV to do it, and the overall swing from the recent specials suggest enough to flip it as well, in theory anyway.

I think the difference between where he's at now vs where he's at after a recession amounts to probably a 50% shot at flipping the House to a 60-70% chance at flipping the House. The Senate is basically impossible, and even at 39% the states still present a goldmine of potential wins for Democrats.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The country is way too polarized and way too disgruntled with politics to care at all...unless their pocketbooks are hit.

Sure, it might take tangible effects on their living situation to go much further down, but I hardly think his approvals hovering in the mid-high 30s precludes flipping the House. Democrats are already posting generic polls that suggest the necessary House PV to do it, and the overall swing from the recent specials suggest enough to flip it as well, in theory anyway.

I think the difference between where he's at now vs where he's at after a recession amounts to probably a 50% shot at flipping the House to a 60-70% chance at flipping the House. The Senate is basically impossible, and even at 39% the states still present a goldmine of potential wins for Democrats.

The Democratic Party is staying centre-left for the time being. And that's the ideological political party that's been getting it's face kicked in the most in the entire western world (more so than left or right wing populists or the centre-right). This is the best 3 minute explanation I can find for it. The full 14 minutes explains the problem the Democrats will continue to have in full. Trump currently offers a faux populism that I think is gonna take a lot longer than a measly two years for the Democratic Party to counter; especially for the current direction I've seen them take thus far.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Okay show of hands who here was making "yeah Bush is unpopular but the county is just too polarized for dems to flip the house" arguments in 2005?

[Virginiá]

The Democratic Party is staying centre-left for the time being. And that's the ideological political party that's been getting it's face kicked in the most in the entire western world (more so than left or right wing populists or the centre-right). This is the best 3 minute explanation I can find for it. The full 14 minutes explains the problem the Democrats will continue to have in full. Trump currently offers a faux populism that I think is gonna take a lot longer than a measly two years for the Democratic Party to counter; especially for the current direction I've seen them take thus far.

Eh, I don't know. I don't see what makes Trump/Republicans in 2018 any different than both parties have fared in the past when their president was deeply unpopular. Republicans have a lot of advantages, particularly in the House, but that doesn't mean a majority is off the table. It just means it's hard to get, as in, needing 7 - 9% PV win just to get a chance at a small majority-type hard.

Republicans have never had the kinds of numbers to outright block Democrats from a House majority in a wave like Democrats did with FDR's coalition. Republicans since 1994 have mostly had the numbers to keep the House except for waves, and in today's climate I think a 7 - 9 point PV win would be wave-like numbers for Democrats.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Okay show of hands who here was making "yeah Bush is unpopular but the county is just too polarized for dems to flip the house" arguments in 2005?

6 years =/= 2 years. We'll see if Trump has completely f**ked up a war in the Middle East for years on end, responded poorly to a hurricane in Louisiana, and has threatened to privatize SS by 2018. Apples and oranges. Oh and we're probably more polarized now and Trump actually offers a form of populism that coincides with a lot of what we're seeing in western countries.

The only short term consequences that I can realistically see happening is a business cycle recession. I have a hard time seeing the Democrats gaining a majority in any other condition. The Democratic Party doesn't have the credibility to mount such a challenge to the GOP (unless wealthy republicans break decades long voting patterns to vote for them) and the youth, minorities, progressives, etc. who make up the base of the Party are gonna have to show up in full force to take back the House. The Democratic strategy of campaigning on the idea that they're the only ones stopping the GOP from causing the world to come to an end isn't a viable strategy moving forward.

I'll give them a 40% chance of taking back the House with no recession. There's no other way I can rationalize a Democratic victory with the global and structural foundations in place beyond pointing at Trump and saying he sucks more.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Most importantly: there has thus far been no populist platform alternative to Trump that the Democrats are taking advantage of. If they just went out there and collectively gave Bernie Sanders stump speech then I'd probably hand it to them. But what are they actually doing instead? There's no serious policy alternative to Trump's agenda beyond throwing mud with Russia.

And what have the Democrats done in recent months? They hyped up a centrist candidate in GA-06 who appealed to moderate Republicans. Rewatch the video I sent; this has been the Democratic Party strategy for decades going all the way back to the 90's (New Labour with Blair in Britain did this) of appealing to those voters in the middle politically. Here's the problem: we're more polarized than ever and the moderate republican has no financial interest in voting for the Democratic Party.

They have not abandoned their 1990's style of campaigning as far as I've seen (Schumer did promise a bold economic agenda soon...so I guess we'll see then) and if they're stuck on this old school strategy then they're gonna continue to come up short in future elections.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So people are basically going to spend the remaining 16 months arguing over whether 2018 will be a massive Democratic wave or not? Why waste so much time with this or even trying to convince the other side that this will or will not be the case? We won't know the answer until the results come in, but one thing is clear: One side is going to be embarrassed, regardless of how the midterms turn out.

I mean, if Democrats want to use that Gallup poll and the "swing" in those special elections (all of which were won by the GOP, but okay) as proof that 2018 will be a Democratic wave, fine. Republicans certainly won't, and there's nothing wrong with that. So if I'm a hack for refusing to believe that Tester's or Manchin's race isn't Likely D, also fine. We'll just have to see, I guess.

Because presidents parties don't do well in midterms. I mean really dude the reps control all 3 branches and are botching the repeal of Obamacare on Carter like levels. How should any of that result in a midte that isn't ugly for the reps. Don't believe me just check out the recruitment thread at the top the dems are nailing star recruits for 2018 while GOPers are scared

[Virginiá]

So people are basically going to spend the remaining 16 months arguing over whether 2018 will be a massive Democratic wave or not? Why waste so much time with this or even trying to convince the other side that this will or will not be the case?

It's been obvious for a while now I have nothing better to do

I mean, if Democrats want to use that Gallup poll and the "swing" in those special elections (all of which were won by the GOP, but okay)

Most of the criticism of special elections meaning anything are usually geared towards one or two. When you have a ton of specials at all sorts of levels showing a large swing, it's hard to say it means nothing. It doesn't guarantee the kind of movement needed to take the House, but combined with the current generic polls, it is not meaningless.

And come on TN you of all people should know what kinds of districts those were. The absolute worst narrative from this slew of special elections, save for GA-6, was that Democrats somehow failed bigly to take them, completely ignoring exactly what districts we are talking about. KS-4 for instance is the kind of district Republicans really never come close to losing, even in waves.

[Yank2133]

Yes because 2018 will be decide by the DCCC's stickers

2018 will be decided by Democrats either giving people a reason to vote for them or not. These stickers point towards the "Not" side.

This isn't how mid-term elections work.

2018 will be decided by Trump. If his numbers are in the tank, Democrats will do well. If they are fine, then the GOP will be fine.

His numbers will be decided overwhelmingly by if we're in a recession or not. The only serious outside factor that could benefit the Democrats given that Trump's approval rating has stabilized at 39% for almost 6 weeks straight now (538).

The country is way too polarized and way too disgruntled with politics to care at all...unless their pocketbooks are hit. It's not as if most national level Democrats in D.C. have any clue what they're doing. State and local Dems probably understand the electorate though.

A 39% approval rating is terrible.

For a comparison Obama was at 44% when Democrats lost 63 seats and Bush was at 38% in 2006 when the Democrats took power. Yes, the country may be polarized, but the GOP doesn't have the cushion in the house like Democrats had in the 1940s-60s.

Also the economy was healthy in 2006 and yet look what happened to the GOP. Corruption, Bush administration incompetence, SS fight lead to high enthusiasm among Democrats, while depressing GOP enthusiasm. Alot of those factors are fairly similar to what we are seeing today with the current President and the GOP.

[heatcharger]

I hope all of these are scrapped, but they weren't even official campaign materials yet. I do agree with Yank that some people on the left just like to complain about literally anything 'The Party' does.

Also, what was the Democrats' big centralized message, something some people want so badly this time, in 2006? That's right, there really wasn't any. Each House and Senate Democratic candidate should be able to run on whatever message/policies best suits their district/state.

So people are basically going to spend the remaining 16 months arguing over whether 2018 will be a massive Democratic wave or not? Why waste so much time with this or even trying to convince the other side that this will or will not be the case? We won't know the answer until the results come in, but one thing is clear: One side is going to be embarrassed, regardless of how the midterms turn out.

I mean, if Democrats want to use that Gallup poll and the "swing" in those special elections (all of which were won by the GOP, but okay) as proof that 2018 will be a Democratic wave, fine. Republicans certainly won't, and there's nothing wrong with that. So if I'm a hack for refusing to believe that Tester's or Manchin's race isn't Likely D, also fine. We'll just have to see, I guess.

Dude, stop whining about what people on an internet forum say about your election predictions. Nobody cares except for you.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Damn. The 2nd and 3rd are beyond terrible, the 1st is terrible, and so the 4th is the best at merely bad.

[AtorBoltox]

Stickers don't matter

[publicunofficial]

Gotta love the "Uhh ACTUALLY there aren't 100 seats the Democrats could possibly lose" replies.