LA Gov 2019- Will Bel Edwards win a second term

[Bidenworth2020]

discuss

[TheSaint250]

Yes. He's popular and a Democrat that (I and) many GOPers in the state like

[BuckeyeNut]

Yes. He's popular and a Democrat that (I and) many GOPers in the state like

Trump midterm should also ensure Democrats don't get lazy and stay home.

[Miles]

Yes, of course, and his last name is just "Edwards."

[Young Conservative]

My family in Louisiana seems to like him, but none of them have ever voted for a Republican before so that means little to nothing.

[Indy Texas]

My family in Louisiana seems to like him, but none of them have ever voted for a Republican before so that means little to nothing.

I find it hard to believe that there are any white people left in Louisiana who have never voted Republican before. Are they like 100 years old?

[BlueDogDemocrat]

I don't think so. I don't see him loosing unless there is a really good candidate that the GOP can find to run against him. He has a decent approval rating in a conservative state and he will get a bonus with it being during Trumps terms, which all together will probable leave him with a decent election margin.

[Coraxion]

Of course. He's a good fit for his state. He's no Landrieu.

[BuckeyeNut]

He'll almost certainly win (Likely D), but not because it's a "Trump midterm", lol. Hopefully the GOP nominates someone competent, though.

No, but it should help Democratic turnout.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

[RINO Tom]

I'd think he would ... moderate, "opposite party" governors who get elected in states that used to favor that party downballot tend to win re-election, no?

[Rjjr77]

I actually say no. The further from the Baton Rouge flood he gets the less popular I think he remains. Jeff Landry may be running against him which would make for a very interesting Acadiana vs Floridian parish dynamic.

[MAINEiac4434]

Yes. He's a good fit for the state and even I think Bel Edwards > Bobby Jindal.

To be fair:

A bayour gator>Jindal

[Indy Texas]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

It's also one of the least ideologically rigid Republican Parties in the country.

[Rjjr77]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

It's also one of the least ideologically rigid Republican Parties in the country.

Louisiana is very rigid, just a different kind of ideology than anywhere else. Take guns, abortion, and God (now also immigration) out and it's not too far from a New England style of republicanism.

[Kingpoleon]

Assuming Dardenne or Cao doesn't run, I would call it completely safe for him.

[JoshPA]

Toss up for now depends on who the republican is in the second round?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Yes. He's popular and a Democrat that (I and) many GOPers in the state like

Trump midterm should also ensure Democrats don't get lazy and stay home.

Don't count on it... you'd have thought they'd come out to keep him from getting elected, but they didn't.

[Rjjr77]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

It's also one of the least ideologically rigid Republican Parties in the country.

Louisiana is very rigid, just a different kind of ideology than anywhere else. Take guns, abortion, and God (now also immigration) out and it's not too far from a New England style of republicanism.

Politically, Louisiana seems like the very Catholic New England states prior to 1992 when social conservatism was still salient there.

to a point, baptist Louisiana is more Arkansas south.

[Rjjr77]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

It's also one of the least ideologically rigid Republican Parties in the country.

Louisiana is very rigid, just a different kind of ideology than anywhere else. Take guns, abortion, and God (now also immigration) out and it's not too far from a New England style of republicanism.

Politically, Louisiana seems like the very Catholic New England states prior to 1992 when social conservatism was still salient there.

to a point, baptist Louisiana is more Arkansas south.

True, but that's only one major metro area (Shreveport) and 1.5ish CDs out of 6.  Also, majority white counties in that area have been inflexibly R for much longer than Arkansas.  It's basically East Texas, realigned during and after Carter and never looked back. 

It may have been more R but it ain't Texas, it's Arkansas. There's an unbearable swagger to Texans that Baptist Louisiana doesn't share. Not everything is broken down politically

[Kingpoleon]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

It's also one of the least ideologically rigid Republican Parties in the country.

Louisiana is very rigid, just a different kind of ideology than anywhere else. Take guns, abortion, and God (now also immigration) out and it's not too far from a New England style of republicanism.

Politically, Louisiana seems like the very Catholic New England states prior to 1992 when social conservatism was still salient there.

to a point, baptist Louisiana is more Arkansas south.

True, but that's only one major metro area (Shreveport) and 1.5ish CDs out of 6.  Also, majority white counties in that area have been inflexibly R for much longer than Arkansas.  It's basically East Texas, realigned during and after Carter and never looked back. 

It may have been more R but it ain't Texas, it's Arkansas. There's an unbearable swagger to Texans that Baptist Louisiana doesn't share. Not everything is broken down politically

We also had a literal Rockefeller Republican as Lieutenant Governor as late as 2006. If he hadn't died, we might have had one as Governor.

[Rjjr77]

I think he will. He's quite popular among Cajun voters, who tend to be swing voters downballot. The LA GOP is also not the most competant of state parties. LA is the only deep south state that doesn't have an R supermajority in the legislature.

It's also one of the least ideologically rigid Republican Parties in the country.

Louisiana is very rigid, just a different kind of ideology than anywhere else. Take guns, abortion, and God (now also immigration) out and it's not too far from a New England style of republicanism.

Politically, Louisiana seems like the very Catholic New England states prior to 1992 when social conservatism was still salient there.

to a point, baptist Louisiana is more Arkansas south.

True, but that's only one major metro area (Shreveport) and 1.5ish CDs out of 6.  Also, majority white counties in that area have been inflexibly R for much longer than Arkansas.  It's basically East Texas, realigned during and after Carter and never looked back. 

It may have been more R but it ain't Texas, it's Arkansas. There's an unbearable swagger to Texans that Baptist Louisiana doesn't share. Not everything is broken down politically

We also had a literal Rockefeller Republican as Lieutenant Governor as late as 2006. If he hadn't died, we might have had one as Governor.

I forgot about W.P., he might have won if not for leukemia