Is Wisconsin becoming the new Virginia

[RINO Tom]

Wississippi will be gone in a cycle or two. Good riddance.

You just keep the bad posts coming, LOL.  Ever even been to Wisconsin?  Like Jesus Christ.

[Coraxion]

Wississippi will be gone in a cycle or two. Good riddance.

You just keep the bad posts coming, LOL.  Ever even been to Wisconsin?  Like Jesus Christ.

White trash won't receive anything from me except disgust and condemnation. I don't make exceptions for the Midwest.

[Xing]

becoming Republican version of Virginia is way different then it becoming Missouri

Not really, the implication is that it's becoming unwinnable for Democrats, which I don't buy.

Wouldn't say the WOW counties are really "trending D" just yet ... sure, Trump lost there, but they were the most Republican part of the state just two years ago and literally provided Walker with his victory.

I agree with this, and Trump could definitely do better in the WOW counties in 2020, but I also think that it's too soon to say that Southwestern counties like Sauk and Columbia are Republican counties now, since Trump could definitely lose them in 2020. If the Democratic candidate recovers at least some of Obama's support from these and neighboring counties, Wisconsin is winnable for Democrats (read: competitive) even if Republicans get solid support from the WOW counties.

[OSR stands with Israel]

becoming Republican version of Virginia is way different then it becoming Missouri

Not really, the implication is that it's becoming unwinnable for Democrats, which I don't buy.

Wouldn't say the WOW counties are really "trending D" just yet ... sure, Trump lost there, but they were the most Republican part of the state just two years ago and literally provided Walker with his victory.

I agree with this, and Trump could definitely do better in the WOW counties in 2020, but I also think that it's too soon to say that Southwestern counties like Sauk and Columbia are Republican counties now, since Trump could definitely lose them in 2020. If the Democratic candidate recovers at least some of Obama's support from these and neighboring counties, Wisconsin is winnable for Democrats (read: competitive) even if Republicans get solid support from the WOW counties.

Virginia is a lean Dem state, and I believe Kasich and Rubio would have won Virginia this year. Wisconsin I feel is same in other way its lean gop in 50-50 elections but if Dems win popular vote by 4-6 points they still win the state.

[RINO Tom]

Wississippi will be gone in a cycle or two. Good riddance.

You just keep the bad posts coming, LOL.  Ever even been to Wisconsin?  Like Jesus Christ.

White trash won't receive anything from me except disgust and condemnation. I don't make exceptions for the Midwest.

Thanks for answering the bolded question with an emphatic "no."

As for your next comments, care to define "White trash" for us?  What about "Black trash," how do you feel about them?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The deunionization of the Midwest is a big problem for the Democrats long term. Yes, Trump did over perform due to his unique appeal to the Rust Belt. The problem is a lot of union members, are culturally conservative, own guns, and are pro life. What makes someone like that vote Democrat? Luckily being in a union has always easily outweighed the other factors that would make them Republican. The union has their back, and Republicans are seen as hostile to unions and pro business and anti worker.

Back in the 1950's union's were 35% of the US workforce, it has been steadily going down year by year, it is now a pitiful 11.3%. Now that these gun owning socially conservative predominantly white males have lost their union jobs, what is to stop them from voting Republican?

[OSR stands with Israel]

becoming Republican version of Virginia is way different then it becoming Missouri

Not really, the implication is that it's becoming unwinnable for Democrats, which I don't buy.

Wouldn't say the WOW counties are really "trending D" just yet ... sure, Trump lost there, but they were the most Republican part of the state just two years ago and literally provided Walker with his victory.

I agree with this, and Trump could definitely do better in the WOW counties in 2020, but I also think that it's too soon to say that Southwestern counties like Sauk and Columbia are Republican counties now, since Trump could definitely lose them in 2020. If the Democratic candidate recovers at least some of Obama's support from these and neighboring counties, Wisconsin is winnable for Democrats (read: competitive) even if Republicans get solid support from the WOW counties.

Virginia is a lean Dem state, and I believe Kasich and Rubio would have won Virginia this year. Wisconsin I feel is same in other way its lean gop in 50-50 elections but if Dems win popular vote by 4-6 points they still win the state.

I doubt any Republican would have won VA with Kaine on the ticket unless it was a 1988 level PV win, but it might have been a Clinton +0.6 situation with Kasich where it would be obvious that Kaine was the only reason she won.  I'm not convinced Rubio does better in VA than Romney did, but even if he does, he still loses by 2% or so IMO.

With Kasich I think he wins by 9-10 points in popular vote meaning even states like Oregon , New Mexico can be won by GOP .

[TheLeftwardTide]

Wississippi will be gone in a cycle or two. Good riddance.

You just keep the bad posts coming, LOL.  Ever even been to Wisconsin?  Like Jesus Christ.

White trash won't receive anything from me except disgust and condemnation. I don't make exceptions for the Midwest.

We all know what you mean by "white trash". Just change your party affiliation to Republican already. Or libertarian if you don't want to give up your weed. That's where your disdain for the white working class - a combination of both class elitism and racism - truly belongs.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So what? Are you going to personally disparage almost half the population for not having the same political views as you do? This is exactly like conservatives saying something like "those lazy inner-city black welfare queens". I will fight tooth and nail for the policies I believe in, but at the end of the day, we're all part of the same country.

Anyway, nobody knows if Wisconsin will become the new Virginia. I would say no, though, for the following reasons:

• Trump only won a plurality by less than one percent. Multiple election wins are needed to prove this.
• Clinton didn't even step foot in Wisconsin once during the presidential election; it makes perfect sense why she lost.
• The emergence of the Sanders-style economic populism in the party will be popular in the Rust Belt, especially Wisconsin.

If the last reason proves to be insignificant, then I could see Wisconsin becoming the new North Carolina, but probably not the new Virginia. I'd say Pennsylvania is more likely to go Republican then Wisconsin in the short term. The PA-GOV race in 2018 will probably be the hardest governor race for Dems to defend (maybe Connecticut is on par with Pennsylvania).

[_]

If I had to rate it now I'd say Tossup, I'm going to say Walker wins 2018, if Baldwin loses I'll move it to Tilt R, and if Trump were to win it again in 2020 by a larger margin than 2016 I'd say it'd be Lean R then.

[Coraxion]

We all know what you mean by "white trash". Just change your party affiliation to Republican already. Or libertarian if you don't want to give up your weed. That's where your disdain for the white working class - a combination of both class elitism and racism - truly belongs.

It isn't the "white working class" I'm referring to, although there is a significant overlap. I'm talking about the people who voted for Trump - devastating economic policies, wreckage of the environment soon to come, and a general embarrassment - just so they could spite "da librulz". "But muh economic anxiety!" Believe that all you want, but that isn't what the surveys suggest.

[Technocracy Timmy]

We all know what you mean by "white trash". Just change your party affiliation to Republican already. Or libertarian if you don't want to give up your weed. That's where your disdain for the white working class - a combination of both class elitism and racism - truly belongs.

It isn't the "white working class" I'm referring to, although there is a significant overlap. I'm talking about the people who voted for Trump - devastating economic policies, wreckage of the environment soon to come, and a general embarrassment - just so they could spite "da librulz". "But muh economic anxiety!" Believe that all you want, but that isn't what the surveys suggest.

There's a legitimate point to be made that as a result of deuionization, a lot of former union workers who use to vote Democrat are now voting for the GOP for cultural reasons in the Midwest. And not all (or even most) of them are voting on racial issues first. Abortion, God, Guns, etc. are all bigger issues to most voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

No, I see it remaining a swing state for the next several years.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wouldn't say the WOW counties are really "trending D" just yet ... sure, Trump lost there, but they were the most Republican part of the state just two years ago and literally provided Walker with his victory.

I would say Ozaukee County is really trending D, Washington really isn't, and the jury is still out on Waukesha (the most important one anyway). In Waukesha County, Hillary only managed to get 500 more votes than Obama. In Washington, she actually got 2,300 less votes. She got 1,000 more votes in Ozaukee. So if the Romney-3rd Party 2016 votes come back once someone besides Trump is on the ballot, then there won't be any significant swing at all. Meanwhile, the rural part of the state was far more dramatic. For instance, in say, Juneau County, Hillary got 2,100 less votes than Obama. Out of 11,000 total. There are dozens of places like this.

[GGSETTER]

becoming Republican version of Virginia is way different then it becoming Missouri

Not really, the implication is that it's becoming unwinnable for Democrats, which I don't buy.

Wouldn't say the WOW counties are really "trending D" just yet ... sure, Trump lost there, but they were the most Republican part of the state just two years ago and literally provided Walker with his victory.

I agree with this, and Trump could definitely do better in the WOW counties in 2020, but I also think that it's too soon to say that Southwestern counties like Sauk and Columbia are Republican counties now, since Trump could definitely lose them in 2020. If the Democratic candidate recovers at least some of Obama's support from these and neighboring counties, Wisconsin is winnable for Democrats (read: competitive) even if Republicans get solid support from the WOW counties.

Virginia is a lean Dem state, and I believe Kasich and Rubio would have won Virginia this year. Wisconsin I feel is same in other way its lean gop in 50-50 elections but if Dems win popular vote by 4-6 points they still win the state.

I doubt any Republican would have won VA with Kaine on the ticket unless it was a 1988 level PV win, but it might have been a Clinton +0.6 situation with Kasich where it would be obvious that Kaine was the only reason she won.  I'm not convinced Rubio does better in VA than Romney did, but even if he does, he still loses by 2% or so IMO.

I don't think Virginia is out of reach at all. Trump was just a horrible fit for the state. Think about all the Government Agencies in Northern Virginia that he might slash. Virginia is still winnable. It's a state full of Rich Suburbanites and Conservative Southerners.

[maga2020]

Yes, WOW delivers its usual margins for traditional republicans for Trump in 2020 (they will), the state will become basically unwinnable for democrats (even with Obama-lite black turnout from Milwaukee).

Trump increased Romney's margins on WI-07 massively and carried WI-03, win WI-03 by single digits while barely losing WI-07 was enough for democrats to win, losing WI-03 and getting blown out in WI-07 will turn Wisconsin unwinnable for them, since WOW + Green Bay erase the margins from Milwaukee and Madison and with the dumpster fire that Milwaukee is thanks to liberal mismanagement (even David Clarke can't stop the socialists, only chase criminals), WOW is not going to trend D soon.

[Nyvin]

The reason Virginia went the way it did is that the fast growing areas were also trending Dem.   The two factors combined to simply overwhelm the Republicans.

In Wisconsin you see Trump doing well mostly in the slow growing areas or areas that are losing population.   The second fastest growing county, Dane, swung to Hillary, as did the WoW counties.   

Even if Wisconsin votes Republican in 2020...it won't have the same momentum that Virginia had in the past decade.

[Nyvin]

The reason Virginia went the way it did is that the fast growing areas were also trending Dem.   The two factors combined to simply overwhelm the Republicans.

In Wisconsin you see Trump doing well mostly in the slow growing areas or areas that are losing population.   The second fastest growing county, Dane, swung to Hillary, as did the WoW counties.   

Even if Wisconsin votes Republican in 2020...it won't have the same momentum that Virginia had in the past decade.

I mean, this is the same kind of analysis you used to "prove" that Trump had no shot at winning PA or that the state wasn't really trending Republican.

If the Republicans want to appeal to every shrinking demographic in the country let them have at it.   It's basic math, the clock will run out at some point or another.

[maga2020]

The reason Virginia went the way it did is that the fast growing areas were also trending Dem.   The two factors combined to simply overwhelm the Republicans.

In Wisconsin you see Trump doing well mostly in the slow growing areas or areas that are losing population.   The second fastest growing county, Dane, swung to Hillary, as did the WoW counties.   

Even if Wisconsin votes Republican in 2020...it won't have the same momentum that Virginia had in the past decade.

I mean, this is the same kind of analysis you used to "prove" that Trump had no shot at winning PA or that the state wasn't really trending Republican.

If the Republicans want to appeal to every shrinking demographic in the country let them have at it.   It's basic math, the clock will run out at some point or another.

The clock is not going to run out if they made these demographics vote like a bloc.

They don't even need whites to do that, only WWCs, that would basically make them electorally invincible.

[Nyvin]

The reason Virginia went the way it did is that the fast growing areas were also trending Dem.   The two factors combined to simply overwhelm the Republicans.

In Wisconsin you see Trump doing well mostly in the slow growing areas or areas that are losing population.   The second fastest growing county, Dane, swung to Hillary, as did the WoW counties.   

Even if Wisconsin votes Republican in 2020...it won't have the same momentum that Virginia had in the past decade.

I mean, this is the same kind of analysis you used to "prove" that Trump had no shot at winning PA or that the state wasn't really trending Republican.

If the Republicans want to appeal to every shrinking demographic in the country let them have at it.   It's basic math, the clock will run out at some point or another.

The clock is not going to run out if they made these demographics vote like a bloc.

They don't even need whites to do that, only WWCs, that would basically make them electorally invincible.

No, it really doesn't.   It was just barely enough in 2016 and that didn't even win them the Popular vote.   There might be a few others to grab here and there, but they're pretty darn close to maxed out, and they are shrinking, not growing.   A lot of the low turnout groups are Democratic groups, hence their problem in midterms.

[maga2020]

The reason Virginia went the way it did is that the fast growing areas were also trending Dem.   The two factors combined to simply overwhelm the Republicans.

In Wisconsin you see Trump doing well mostly in the slow growing areas or areas that are losing population.   The second fastest growing county, Dane, swung to Hillary, as did the WoW counties.   

Even if Wisconsin votes Republican in 2020...it won't have the same momentum that Virginia had in the past decade.

I mean, this is the same kind of analysis you used to "prove" that Trump had no shot at winning PA or that the state wasn't really trending Republican.

If the Republicans want to appeal to every shrinking demographic in the country let them have at it.   It's basic math, the clock will run out at some point or another.

The clock is not going to run out if they made these demographics vote like a bloc.

They don't even need whites to do that, only WWCs, that would basically make them electorally invincible.

No, it really doesn't.   It was just barely enough in 2016 and that didn't even win them the Popular vote.   There might be a few others to grab here and there, but they're pretty darn close to maxed out, and they are shrinking, not growing.   A lot of the low turnout groups are Democratic groups, hence their problem in midterms.

You're only maxed out when you get 100% of a group, the democrats and blacks are much closer to it than the GOP and WWCs, GOP only wins 2/3 of them now, make inroads in the midwest and it could get close to 3/4.

And the popular vote is irrelevant, California is a huge democratic vote sink, the dems can be happy at getting 3/4 of California and win the PV, the GOP will be getting 3/4 of WWCs and winning the EC. Not to mention the turnout gap being so yuge the democrats would lose even at midterms under a GOP president (just like they are going to badly underperform in 2018 in places where white liberals are exotic animals).

[hopper]

Wisconsin is probably "Toss Up" in Presidential Elections. It really hasn't voted that differently from the country as a whole in the last 5 Presidential Elections except for 2008.

[TJ in Oregon]

There are two ways for a state's political demographics to shift:
1. People move there from elsewhere with different political views (or people in the state with certain views disproportionately move away).
2. The people who already live there change their political views, generally in light of changes in the national landscape.

While (1) describes what happened in Virginia, if the shift toward the GOP in Wisconsin proves to be enduring rather than random noise, it would be through mechanism (2). Naturally demographics do matter, but so does convincing people to vote for you who previously haven't.

[NOVA Green]

Wisconsin is probably "Toss Up" in Presidential Elections. It really hasn't voted that differently from the country as a whole in the last 5 Presidential Elections except for 2008.

Gotta agree with Hopper on this one....

Many people simply look at the overall Win/Loss map as a zero-sum game, and neglect to delve into the county level details and beyond....

Oregon shares many similarities with Wisconsin, although also a few key differences....

Both States had large Rural components that swung heavily towards Dukakis in '88 that had suffered much under the Reagan Recession and lack of recovery in small town and rural areas...

Both states still had heavily Republican voting blocks in overwhelmingly White Middle-Class suburban areas....

Both states had a relatively high level of support for Perot in '92/'96, where if one simply were to look at a Map, neglected to show how many communities felt abandoned by both major political parties.

Both states had Gore eke out narrow wins in '00/'04, with all of the Focus on '00 being "why didn't the Nader voters toe the line" and in '04 "Why are all of these evangelicals coming out of the woodwork"....

So we hit '08 and the gap between the main Metro area(s) and Small-Town/Rural areas are swept under the rug in the largest Democratic "landslide" since.... 1964 (?).

We hit 2012 and the numbers stand out more in Wisconsin than Oregon, simply because Metro Milwaukie and Dane County are a much lower % of the voters than Metro-Portland and Lane County (Closest equivalent to Dane in Oregon)..... Additionally the suburbs of Portland had started to shift much more heavily towards the Democratic Party starting in 2000, than the suburbs of Milwaukie.

Fast forward to 2016 and everyone is "shocked.... shocked I say to find that swings are going on in this state" (Sorry--- cheesy attempt at a Casablanca Movie quote rip-off).

I have commented on and observed similar swings in rural and small-town Oregon, especially in many communities similar to that of Wisconsin. The Paper and Pulp Mill Towns, Dairy Country, Cranberry Producing regions, etc....

Wisconsin is not becoming the "New Virginia", it simply has a much larger chunk of swing voters, that in '16 swung heavily towards Trump, predominately based on economic concerns in industries and occupations such as paper/pulp, dairy, etc.... where jobs are being cut and commodity prices have collapsed under a Democratic Administration (This is obviously not Obama's fault).

Still many Obama '08/'12 voters did NOT feel that HRC was running for the 3rd Obama term, and her campaign strategy of focusing exclusively on the personality flaws and character of Donald J. Trump, rather than hitting part on policy differences on items such as agricultural and timber policy, was the critical element in Wisconsin, regardless of what has become a mass media and Atlas cliche, that somehow lower African-American turnout compared to '12 cost her the election....

Swing voters will likely remain such for quite some time.... there are a ton of Gore/George W./Obama/Romney-Obama/Trump voters in Wisconsin, especially in rural areas, and they aren't going anywhere, and they need to feel like a Democratic candidate is talking to them.