MO-Remington: GOP sweep
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Author Topic: MO-Remington: GOP sweep  (Read 8322 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2017, 04:38:41 PM »

Ron John was in this kind of trouble too.

Yes, but he had the benefit in that the Democratic candidate for President was too lazy and stupid to campaign in the correct states.

McCaskill has no such outs!

Johnson was running in an "EVEN" state, McCaskill's state is R+9. Johnson vs. Feingold was a rematch, this race won't be one, etc. etc. Yes, MO isn't as R-friendly downballot, but McCaskill is no Kander and I highly doubt the GOP nominee will be as incompetent as Blunt or Akin. Most people here are really underestimating how vulnerable she is.

If the election were held today, I'd definitely expect MO, IN and NV to flip.

What about ND?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2017, 04:39:15 PM »

When McCaskill wins, I'm sure there will be plenty of posts about how St. Louis "jiggered" the vote to steal the seat. You know what kind of people live there and what they do. In seriousness, McCaskill cannot be written off, because she is a good campaigner and the environment is right for her to win again.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2017, 04:40:53 PM »

Why don't we try Jay Nixon again? McCaskill is in critical condition, and could transition to DOA without much difficulty, we don't have much to lose that is not already tilting towards the lost side. It's time for drastic actions.

Just accept that Missouri is gone for Dems.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2017, 04:44:07 PM »

Why don't we try Jay Nixon again? McCaskill is in critical condition, and could transition to DOA without much difficulty, we don't have much to lose that is not already tilting towards the lost side. It's time for drastic actions.

Just accept that Missouri is gone for Dems.

It is starting to look that way, but no DOA yet. Dems have no choice but to fight back, this is a seat worth defending. To just sit back and look dumbfounded in this race is unacceptable, it has to be defended, even if it is an R pickup in the end, this is a seat worth defending.
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swf541
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« Reply #29 on: July 09, 2017, 05:01:17 PM »

Hey everyone remember when Ron Johnson and Rob Portman and Toomey were supposed to be DOA?  I sure do, and remember the Pryor is safe stuff in 14?  Yea over a year in advance is rather meaningless for senate polls, especially when it comes from such a slanted pollster

Oh and I forgot remember when everyone said she'd be DOA in 12?  Yea about that......

Definitely will be a major race though next year, personally I think neither side will net more than 1
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2017, 05:16:01 PM »

We're over a year away and you guys are proclaiming the outcome from one poll.  Come on, your just going to end up with egg on your face. Also, need I remind everyone of 2006 MO senate polls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2006
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #31 on: July 09, 2017, 05:18:27 PM »

People comparing her to swig state senators deemed doa are being ridiculous. They were swing state senators. MO is not a swing state. McCaskill got lucky with the dem wave in 2006 and even luckier in 2012. If she doesn't get as lucky shes done. I think as of now she would lose and most likely will lose.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #32 on: July 09, 2017, 05:22:44 PM »

People comparing her to swig state senators deemed doa are being ridiculous. They were swing state senators. MO is not a swing state. McCaskill got lucky with the dem wave in 2006 and even luckier in 2012. If she doesn't get as lucky shes done. I think as of now she would lose and most likely will lose.

McCaskill is getting lucky again. Its a midterm with an unpopular president. Thats the reason she won in 2006 and will be the reason if she wins next year.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #33 on: July 09, 2017, 05:34:28 PM »

We're over a year away and you guys are proclaiming the outcome from one poll.  Come on, your just going to end up with egg on your face. Also, need I remind everyone of 2006 MO senate polls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2006

Uh, your point? That Rasmussen poll from July 20 '05 (closest point in the cycle to this poll) says D+3. This is R+6 for the likely nominee.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #34 on: July 09, 2017, 05:36:11 PM »

Hey everyone remember when Ron Johnson and Rob Portman and Toomey were supposed to be DOA?  I sure do, and remember the Pryor is safe stuff in 14?  Yea over a year in advance is rather meaningless for senate polls, especially when it comes from such a slanted pollster

Oh and I forgot remember when everyone said she'd be DOA in 12?  Yea about that......

Definitely will be a major race though next year, personally I think neither side will net more than 1

No one called Toomey and Portman DOA. And the Pryor is safe stuff came from the early polling showing him significantly ahead. Meanwhile, McCaskill is already trailing.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #35 on: July 09, 2017, 05:41:39 PM »

We're over a year away and you guys are proclaiming the outcome from one poll.  Come on, your just going to end up with egg on your face. Also, need I remind everyone of 2006 MO senate polls:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2006

Uh, your point? That Rasmussen poll from July 20 '05 (closest point in the cycle to this poll) says D+3. This is R+6 for the likely nominee.

My point was the race had polling showing Talent up by similar margins at multiple points. 2018 will be a midterm with an unpopular president, like 2006. Im gonna bet you'll be the first person to call the next poll showing McCaskill up "junk", and there will be polls showing her ahead.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #36 on: July 09, 2017, 06:59:20 PM »

This race will be a competitive Tossup, news at 11

Seriously, Wagner staying out should be the clearest hint that this won't be a Blanching
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Pollster
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« Reply #37 on: July 09, 2017, 07:28:15 PM »

Remington has a strong R lean but MO is their home turf and they know the state well. I suspect this is an accurate representation of the current state of the race.
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #38 on: July 09, 2017, 07:34:10 PM »

This race will be a competitive Tossup, news at 11

Seriously, Wagner staying out should be the clearest hint that this won't be a Blanching


Actually, that doesn't seem to be why Wagner stayed out. She seems to have opted against running, as she felt snubbed by NRSC/MO GOP, who seem more interested in Josh Hawley.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #39 on: July 09, 2017, 07:57:07 PM »

This race will be a competitive Tossup, news at 11

Seriously, Wagner staying out should be the clearest hint that this won't be a Blanching


Actually, that doesn't seem to be why Wagner stayed out. She seems to have opted against running, as she felt snubbed by NRSC/MO GOP, who seem more interested in Josh Hawley.

Curious why they'd snub one of their most prodigious fundraisers
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #40 on: July 09, 2017, 09:31:17 PM »

Once again, we're seeing a lot of partisan GOP pollsters. I'd like to see an independent pollster. I do have Missouri having a lot of the same dynamics as West Virginia, so I can see this being plausible, but I don't want to accept this without a non-partisan poll or averaging it with a D pollster.
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jfern
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« Reply #41 on: July 09, 2017, 09:40:06 PM »

Great polls!

This will be a big Blanching.

She will likely lose but not get Blanched.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #42 on: July 09, 2017, 09:40:35 PM »


This, she loses by between 4-10.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #43 on: July 10, 2017, 01:46:09 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2017, 02:24:26 AM by MT Treasurer »

Once again, we're seeing a lot of partisan GOP pollsters. I'd like to see an independent pollster. I do have Missouri having a lot of the same dynamics as West Virginia, so I can see this being plausible, but I don't want to accept this without a non-partisan poll or averaging it with a D pollster.

Again, this pollster even underestimated Trump's final margin in MO, but their Senate numbers were dead-on (Blunt +3). This is a "Republican" pollster the same way PPP is a "Democratic" pollster, and these numbers look quite plausible anyway. You don't have to "accept" it if you don't want to, but the numbers are what they are.

This race will be a competitive Tossup, news at 11

Seriously, Wagner staying out should be the clearest hint that this won't be a Blanching


Actually, that doesn't seem to be why Wagner stayed out. She seems to have opted against running, as she felt snubbed by NRSC/MO GOP, who seem more interested in Josh Hawley.

Curious why they'd snub one of their most prodigious fundraisers
This race will be a competitive Tossup, news at 11

Seriously, Wagner staying out should be the clearest hint that this won't be a Blanching


Actually, that doesn't seem to be why Wagner stayed out. She seems to have opted against running, as she felt snubbed by NRSC/MO GOP, who seem more interested in Josh Hawley.

Curious why they'd snub one of their most prodigious fundraisers

I'd guess a) because they didn't want to risk losing her House seat and b) because she is tied to the Washington Establishment - ask Roy Blunt how badly this can impact your numbers. I do believe she would have won this race, though.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #44 on: July 10, 2017, 01:48:42 AM »

Once again, we're seeing a lot of partisan GOP pollsters. I'd like to see an independent pollster. I do have Missouri having a lot of the same dynamics as West Virginia, so I can see this being plausible, but I don't want to accept this without a non-partisan poll or averaging it with a D pollster.

Again, this pollster even underestimated Trump's final margin in MO, but their Senate numbers were dead-on (Blunt +3). This is a "Republican" pollster the same way PPP is a "Democratic" pollster, and these numbers look quite plausible anyway. You don't have to "accept" it if you don't want to, but the numbers are what they are.

Only thing that works against this poll being accurate is..

It is July 2017.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #45 on: July 10, 2017, 02:15:47 AM »

@MT Treasurer, I'm not disputing the poll in the sense that I don't think it could be wrong. I'm just saying it's early. I definitely think McCaskill is disadvantaged in Missouri and my predictions have long said she goes down.

I just wanted to see polling from other sources to confirm that or to see what happens in MO.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #46 on: July 10, 2017, 04:37:57 AM »

RIP Devout Centrist, lol.

This, even though the GOP obviously can't take anything for granted.
Btw: Before the McCaskill fanboys try to spin this, Remington's final poll in 2016 was very accurate (Blunt +3). https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250381.0

In any case, this race isn't Lean D, LMAO.

You think "devoted progressive" would poll better?

Devout Centrist is an actual user on Atlas who foolishly thinks that McCaskill is favored.

Thanks! I didn't know that. By my estimate the race is between Tilt and Lean R, but with plenty of time before election anything may happen.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #47 on: July 10, 2017, 05:40:23 AM »

If I were her I would primary fund Hatzler, Akin lite
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Xing
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« Reply #48 on: July 10, 2017, 12:48:55 PM »

Yes, McCaskill is vulnerable, but it's early, and early polls tell us very little. Those of you preparing her tombstone are just asking for her to win re-election, which is certainly possible.
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Fudotei
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« Reply #49 on: July 10, 2017, 01:10:57 PM »

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Hawley's in a very unique position as a young star who has bona fide credentials. His level of involvement with Hobby Lobby -- and his fiercely conservative views -- make him a pretty powerful opponent. As mentioned earlier he ran *ahead* of Trump.

With Wagner out, I see Hawley as the favorite for the nomination and honestly the race overall. Lean R, in part due to strength of character. Will a state that just elected Eric Greitens to the Governor's mansion have a problem with Hawley's naked ambition? Probably not.
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