AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Heisenberg]

I'd be alright with Sinema so long as she doesn't veer into SJW territory. Obviously I want a Republican for political reasons but Sinema isn't a bad choice.

Sinema was certainly very SJW pre-2013. I can see her moving back that direction if she stays in the House, as her seat does continue to trend left. I don't like her at all. Sounds like a typical condescending politician who changes positions however the wind blows. Someone I can't help but really hate.

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

I totally agree. As a Republican, Stanton legitimately scares me more than Sinema.

[Coraxion]

I'd be alright with Sinema so long as she doesn't veer into SJW territory. Obviously I want a Republican for political reasons but Sinema isn't a bad choice.

How dare those SJW libruls provide a voice to the marginalized.

[BuckeyeNut]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

While not ideal for a statewide candidate in Arizona, being a gay atheist is hardly the most troubling baggage Sinema has, for example:

- She's former Green Party member who worked for Nader's campaign in 2000 and then as soon as she decided to run for a swingy house district conveniently decided that she was always a centrist all along (b/c that doesn't make her look like a soulless flip-flopper or anything )

- Sinema used to be a spokeswoman for a group that was literally founded to support Palestinian terrorist groups during the first Intifada (btw, Sinema has a long history of advocating anti-Israel policies and generally being an apologist for groups like the PLO, idk if this remained the case after she got elected to Congress though)

- Sinema also co-founded a group that called military action against Al-Qaeda "an inappropriate response" to 9/11.

- Back when she was a State Rep, Sinema referred to stay-at-home moms as "women who act like staying at home, leeching off their husbands or boyfriends, and just cashing the checks is some sort of feminism."

I mean come on, the attack ads write themselves.  You don't even need smears to make a compelling argument that Sinema has no business being in the Senate.  I might even vote third-party if she were the Democratic nominee and I lived in Arizona, tbh.  If Sinema runs then she'll be one of those candidates who seems like a solid recruit until they win the nomination and then suddenly implodes in spectacular fashion.

[Pollster]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

[Coraxion]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

- Sinema used to be a spokeswoman for a group that was literally founded to support Palestinian terrorist liberation groups during the first Intifada (btw, Sinema has a long history of advocating anti-Israel policies and generally being an apologist for groups like the PLO, idk if this remained the case after she got elected to Congress though)

The fact that this is considered a liability shows how much we've decided to abandon what's right in favor of a prophecy in a fiction book written thousands of years ago.

[SATW]

^ She is Pro-Israel now in Congress, but after everything everyone has brought up on her, it seems her support is very insincere and could change if political circumstances change. (I knew she flip flopped on Israel but didn't know her other flip fops)

I think this is accurate for a lot of her positions. I have called her a FF in the past, especially for her opposition to the Iran deal, but its hard to praise someone who has such an alarming history of opportunism.

Either way, I'm backing Flake. I have issues with him, but he is better than a democrat and better than Kelli Ward.

[Jeppe]

I think Kelli Ward is going to beat Flake in the primary. She did well against McCain last year, and Flake seems even more hated than McCain against Republicans in their state, and he isn't even close to being an institution like McCain in Arizona.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

- Sinema used to be a spokeswoman for a group that was literally founded to support Palestinian terrorist liberation groups during the first Intifada (btw, Sinema has a long history of advocating anti-Israel policies and generally being an apologist for groups like the PLO, idk if this remained the case after she got elected to Congress though)

The fact that this is considered a liability shows how much we've decided to abandon what's right in favor of a prophecy in a fiction book written thousands of years ago.

Call me old-fashioned, but I always considered deliberately blowing up civilians and using the cold-blooded murder of non-combatants as a political strategy to be terrorism.  Then again, I also have this crazy idea that maybe...juuuuuuust maybe, it's wrong to try to blow up school buses filled with innocent children, so what do I know?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I could still see it happening if Jeff Dewitt gets in, McCain did an excellent job (as he always does) at defining his opponents before they have a chance to do it themselves, which is how Ward got the "crazy lady" label

You may be right in general, but Ward earned that label.

Also, if he's so good at that, why was he not able to define Barack Obama in 2008?

[BuckeyeNut]

Can we please talk about Arizona and not re-hash the Israel-Palestine conflict?

[Brittain33]

Let's stick to Arizona. --Mod.

[Anna Komnene]

Wow, X, those sure are some amazing attack ads you came up with about things she did when she was in college. It's a wonder the GOP didn't manage to sink her by 40 points back in 2012 when this district was pretty competitive!  And I mean, if you're worried about her changing her positions in the Senate, this is Arizona not New York.  It's not as if she's going to pull a Kirsten Gillibrand. If anything, she might even move further to the center.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow, X, those sure are some amazing attack ads you came up with about things she did when she was in college. It's a wonder the GOP didn't manage to sink her by 40 points back in 2012 when this district was pretty competitive!  And I mean, if you're worried about her changing her positions in the Senate, this is Arizona not New York.  It's not as if she's going to pull a Kirsten Gillibrand. If anything, she might even move further to the center.

I guess Vernon Parker was a crappy candidate in 2012, huh?  No argument from me there (and yet he still almost won in a mildly Democratic district)  Anyway, they weren't just things from when she was in college.  Some even happened while she was a state representative.  And I'm sorry, but co-founding a group that opposed taking any military response to 9/11 is pretty much a deal-breaker or should be.

[BuckeyeNut]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

You don't see how that could be an effective attack ad?  What about the quote about stay at home moms?  I don't get what rationale there could possibly be for running Sinema instead of Stanton.

[Anna Komnene]

I mean I'm not the biggest fan of Sinema either, given some of her anti-refugee stances and general grandstanding. And it's a bit weird that she doesn't seemed to have acknowledged her past. At least Tulsi Gabbard explains why she changed positions on issues over time. I just don't think her campaign would be this big disaster, and I definitely wouldn't pick Mitch McConnell as majority leader over her in the Senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean I'm not the biggest fan of Sinema either, given some of her anti-refugee stances and general grandstanding. And it's a bit weird that she doesn't seemed to have acknowledged her past. At least Tulsi Gabbard explains why she changed positions on issues over time. I just don't think her campaign would be this big disaster, and I definitely wouldn't pick Mitch McConnell as majority leader over her in the Senate.

I think Stanton would be favored over Flake while Sinema would lose (how much is up for debate), that's my biggest concern here.

[Mr. Smith]

I do wish Mark Kelly would go for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once McCain retires in 2022, someone big will win for DEM's in AZ.

[Heisenberg]

Once McCain retires in 2022, someone big will win for DEM's in AZ.

Not to sound morbid, but he'll probably be gone sooner.

[BuckeyeNut]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

You don't see how that could be an effective attack ad?  What about the quote about stay at home moms?  I don't get what rationale there could possibly be for running Sinema instead of Stanton.

I see how it could be, I'm just not sure how well it would land, given the war's unpopularity.

The stay-at-home mom's quote is bad, definitely, but it makes me wonder why it wasn't used when she was running for the House back in 2012. I'm definitely more sceptical of her than I was.

That said, Kelly-hype seems overblown. As an Ohioan, I get the collective boner people have for astronauts in politics, but is Kelly that popular in AZ itself? Do we know he can campaign?

[Coraxion]

In a Stanton vs Sinema primary, I think Stanton would end up winning. The city of Phoenix is simply a larger constituency than any congressional district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

You don't see how that could be an effective attack ad?  What about the quote about stay at home moms?  I don't get what rationale there could possibly be for running Sinema instead of Stanton.

I see how it could be, I'm just not sure how well it would land, given the war's unpopularity.

The stay-at-home mom's quote is bad, definitely, but it makes me wonder why it wasn't used when she was running for the House back in 2012. I'm definitely more sceptical of her than I was.

That said, Kelly-hype seems overblown. As an Ohioan, I get the collective boner people have for astronauts in politics, but is Kelly that popular in AZ itself? Do we know he can campaign?

- Re: The 9/11 thing: For some reason, I feel like AZ is a very pro-military state and that the defense industry employs a lot of folks there, so that's another thing to consider (I could be misremembering though).  Either way though, I definitely think a solid "soft on terror" attack ad or two would hurt Sinema a lot with the type of voters Democrats need in order to win a high-profile statewide race in AZ.  That's a state where you need more than just solid Hispanic turnout and the Democratic base, we also need folks who - though not necessarily fierce partisans - tend to break for the Republican candidate all things being equal.  I'm not saying we need a conservaDem, but we do need someone who is A) a top-tier *and* reasonably inoffensive candidate and B) win over swing voters and some of the less partisan Republicans.  Even against a weak Republican like Flake, that's currently the only way we can win statewide in AZ.  Flake knows this which is why he's already trying to define himself as a Reasonable NeverTrump Moderate  

- Sinema's 2012 opponent was pretty weak, ran a lousy campaign (his attack ads were primarily of the "Godless atheist heathen" variety), and on paper Sinema should've really won by a much larger margin (I believe he also had little money after barely winning an absolutely brutal clown car primary).  She hasn't faced a serious opponent since (I think this seat was a big recruiting failure for Republicans in 2014, tbh).  I mean, Sinema's toughest opponent was a weak and underfunded B-lister who ran a weak campaign and still almost beat her in 2012 despite the district's mild Democratic lean.  She's never faced a strong opponent and while Flake isn't a very strong incumbent, he's not as weak as he looks on paper either and has already beat a tougher opponent than Sinema in 2012.  Plus, AZ is a Republican-leaning state.  As a result, we'll need an A-lister without any serious baggage to beat Flake and Stanton fits the bill far better than Sinema (or Kelly, for that matter).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

Ask and you shall receive.   PPP has Flake at 18/62 approval/disapproval, and losing to a generic D 31/47.  They also have Trump's approval at 44/53.  The poll was conducted July 31-August 1 among 704 Arizona voters.  http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PPP-Poll-Arizona.pdf