AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

Cactus lives in Phoenix. He probably knows more about both of them then you(and more about what Arizonans tend to like). I'm not a Phoenican, but I think Stanton's better for holding AZ-9 for forever.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

Cactus lives in Phoenix. He probably knows more about both of them then you(and more about what Arizonans tend to like). I'm not a Phoenican, but I think Stanton's better for holding AZ-9 for forever.

I guess we'll find out whenever the seat opens up   If Stanton's as strong as I think he is, then he'll probably be nominated and win a hard-fought race.  If the Democrats run someone else or Stanton implodes, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.  Until then though, while I respect Cactus' opinion, I happen to disagree with him here. 

[Webnicz]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

He looks that way on paper, but he really is desperately uninspiring. Plus, there have been mayoral-level issues the Republicans could easily use against him. Gallego and Friese would both do better, I think.

Thank you, finally somebody else from AZ to back up my claim that Stanton would be one of the worst statewide candidates (like other mayors of phoenix) he's boring and his record as mayor isn't necessarily good.

[Cactus Jack]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

Cactus lives in Phoenix. He probably knows more about both of them then you(and more about what Arizonans tend to like). I'm not a Phoenican, but I think Stanton's better for holding AZ-9 for forever.

Scottsdale, actually, but close enough. Having said that, I'm in a good place to confirm that Stanton is the perfect candidate for AZ-09. Raging lefties like myself aside, people in this district love their low-key, uncontroversial Democrats; Sinema fit that bill (never mind the ridiculous right-wing hot takes about her atheism and sexual orientation) and so does Stanton, right to a tee. The key difference between them, in terms of statewide potential, is that Sinema has charisma and a winning background and Stanton straight-up doesn't.

[windjammer]

If McCain dies and there is a special election, which democrat would run?

[Cactus Jack]

If McCain dies and there is a special election, which democrat would run?

Gallego and Friese would be our best bets, particularly Gallego on account of his military record. Kelly would be our ideal get, of course, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I suspect his public career is over.

[windjammer]

If McCain dies and there is a special election, which democrat would run?

Gallego and Friese would be our best bets, particularly Gallego on account of his military record. Kelly would be our ideal get, of course, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I suspect his public career is over.

Isn't Gallego too leftwing?


Btw, how strong is Mcsally? I have the feeling she's overrated

[Cactus Jack]

If McCain dies and there is a special election, which democrat would run?

Gallego and Friese would be our best bets, particularly Gallego on account of his military record. Kelly would be our ideal get, of course, but as I stated earlier in this thread, I suspect his public career is over.

Isn't Gallego too leftwing?


Btw, how strong is Mcsally? I have the feeling she's overrated

He is, but I think his background and general likability make up for it.

Also, McSally sucks. She has absolutely zero charisma and destroyed her political goodwill salivating over McCain's seat before the man has even died.

[Webnicz]

This has got to be one of the worst campaign roll outs in the history of the United States Senate.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/944350401133821952

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/944238498197815296

https://twitter.com/BenRay/status/944238464337371136

Mcconnell praising McNally will be great for Kelli Ward, today was a good day for her.


Also to update the race on the democratic side, the justice democrats endorsed Deedra Aboud, an endorsement that will go absolutely nowhere.

[Cactus Jack]

This has got to be one of the worst campaign roll outs in the history of the United States Senate.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/944350401133821952

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/944238498197815296

https://twitter.com/BenRay/status/944238464337371136

Mcconnell praising McNally will be great for Kelli Ward, today was a good day for her.


Also to update the race on the democratic side, the justice democrats endorsed Deedra Aboud, an endorsement that will go absolutely nowhere.

Yeah. Democrats need to brand Hawley, McSally, Scott (if he's stupid enough to run), and Cramer as the McConnell-backed candidate. McConnell is literally polling in the teens nationwide.

Wonder how McConnell feels right now, having become the new Nancy Pelosi.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lmao McConnell just screwed the GOP's last hope of keeping Flake's seat. McSally is going to have his stench all over her.

Senator Sinema.

[Oryxslayer]

Lmao McConnell just screwed the GOP's last hope of keeping Flake's seat. McSally is going to have his stench all over her.

Senator Sinema.

No, whats makes this really bad is that McSally is the clear recruit for the McCain seat - which will probably be 'open' due to McCains resignation over the holidays. However, this is just the latest peice of news highlighting her naked opportunism - when the seat isn't even open yet!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wonder how McConnell feels right now, having become the new Nancy Pelosi.

Pelosi was never that unpopular. But you never see the DC press corps cnstantly trashing McConnell and his leadership or speculating about wether his caucus will oust him from majority leader.
It makes you wonder.

[Coldstream]

I’m obviously not Arizonan so I can’t claim any great knowledge of the political preferences of its inhabitants, but I must admit I’m confused as to why Synema is seen as a better hope for the Dems than Stanton. Isn’t she an ex-Green atheist? Whilst Stanton is mayor of the largest city in the state? What is it about Synema that makes her a good general election prospect?

[Former Kentuckian]

I’m obviously not Arizonan so I can’t claim any great knowledge of the political preferences of its inhabitants, but I must admit I’m confused as to why Synema is seen as a better hope for the Dems than Stanton. Isn’t she an ex-Green atheist? Whilst Stanton is mayor of the largest city in the state? What is it about Synema that makes her a good general election prospect?

She's cunning and malleable, and I mean that as a compliment. She previously ran as a Green, but after being elected as a Democrat, she was able to morph into a Blue Dog and be one of the most conservative and bipartisan Democrats in Congress. Previous Republican opponents have tried to pin her as a hippie, but it wasn't able to stick. Stanton doesn't have the political intelligence she does. He's made a lot of avoidable mistakes that make him seem naive and wishy-washy.

[Brittain33]

This has got to be one of the worst campaign roll outs in the history of the United States Senate.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/944350401133821952

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/944238498197815296

https://twitter.com/BenRay/status/944238464337371136

Mcconnell praising McNally will be great for Kelli Ward, today was a good day for her.


Also to update the race on the democratic side, the justice democrats endorsed Deedra Aboud, an endorsement that will go absolutely nowhere.

Yeah. Democrats need to brand Hawley, McSally, Scott (if he's stupid enough to run), and Cramer as the McConnell-backed candidate. McConnell is literally polling in the teens nationwide.

Wonder how McConnell feels right now, having become the new Nancy Pelosi.

The thing is, Pelosi isn't hated by Dems the way McConnell is hated by Republicans.

[IceSpear]

This has got to be one of the worst campaign roll outs in the history of the United States Senate.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/944350401133821952

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/944238498197815296

https://twitter.com/BenRay/status/944238464337371136

Mcconnell praising McNally will be great for Kelli Ward, today was a good day for her.


Also to update the race on the democratic side, the justice democrats endorsed Deedra Aboud, an endorsement that will go absolutely nowhere.

Yeah. Democrats need to brand Hawley, McSally, Scott (if he's stupid enough to run), and Cramer as the McConnell-backed candidate. McConnell is literally polling in the teens nationwide.

Wonder how McConnell feels right now, having become the new Nancy Pelosi.

I don't think Pelosi was ever in the teens actually, lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This has got to be one of the worst campaign roll outs in the history of the United States Senate.

https://twitter.com/dannowicki/status/944350401133821952

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/944238498197815296

https://twitter.com/BenRay/status/944238464337371136

Mcconnell praising McNally will be great for Kelli Ward, today was a good day for her.


Also to update the race on the democratic side, the justice democrats endorsed Deedra Aboud, an endorsement that will go absolutely nowhere.

Yeah. Democrats need to brand Hawley, McSally, Scott (if he's stupid enough to run), and Cramer as the McConnell-backed candidate. McConnell is literally polling in the teens nationwide.

Wonder how McConnell feels right now, having become the new Nancy Pelosi.

I don't think Pelosi was ever in the teens actually, lol.

It looks like her lowest in the HuffPo average was around 24% in early 2016.

[Pollster]

Would be interesting if, in a dual Senate election, the Dems field both Sinema and Gallego. Both attract significantly different Democratic voters, and could feasibly pull each other across the finish line.

Garcia is also an underrated recruit for the governor's race, imo. Arizona could be 2018's Virginia 2017.