AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

Ask and you shall receive.  PPP has Flake at 18/62 approval/disapproval, and losing to a generic D 31/47.  They also have Trump's approval at 44/53.  The poll was conducted July 31-August 1 among 704 Arizona voters.  http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PPP-Poll-Arizona.pdf

I'd like confirmation, but if that's accurate...wow

[kph14]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

They also have Trump's approval at 44/53.

That fits greatly into the whole picture. Gallup has Trump's rating in Arizona at 43/52

[Webnicz]

Sinema can win, she ran ahead of Clinton in '16 because of support for her from republicans. I have myself spoken with many republicans in the area who have nothing but praise for her for the most part. They like that she votes against Pelosi for leader, condemned Obama for the release of Bergdahl, and her right of center position on refugees.


Support from moderate republicans is why she is more electable than Greg Stanton who is an SJW who changes street names because they are offensive - that stuff does not play well statewide especially in the east valley where dems need to outreach too

Not to mention she is great at fundraising

[Pollster]

I ran a GCS poll of Stanton v. Flake. It's GCS so 39.9% were unsure and 24.6% were unlikely/unregistered to vote. Of the respondents who picked a candidate, Stanton defeated Flake 18-17.4 (unweighted results).

Interestingly, Flake leads narrowly with men but Stanton has a huge lead with women. The survey was majority male (never the reality in elections), so I would imagine weighted results would show Stanton with a lead.

[Cactus Jack]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

Ask and you shall receive.  PPP has Flake at 18/62 approval/disapproval, and losing to a generic D 31/47.  They also have Trump's approval at 44/53.  The poll was conducted July 31-August 1 among 704 Arizona voters.  http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PPP-Poll-Arizona.pdf

That approval sounds about right. Flake is, without exemption, one of the most useless piles of cartilage in the Senate, and his recent votes have just thrown that into perspective.

Man, we really do need to run Stanton. He's just about the physical embodiment of Generic D.

[Kingpoleon]

If Giffords doesn't run, I'll probably support Jeff Flake.

[The Other Castro]

Top Trump donor Robert Mercer is giving $300,000 to Kelli Ward's Super PAC in an effort to take out Flake.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/09/trump-jeff-flake-robert-mercer-kelli-ward-241454

[LabourJersey]

I'm really surprised how we have yet to hear strong rumors about Sinema or Stanton or someone else getting into this race by now. Nothing is going Jeff Flake's way right now

[Gass3268]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

[TheSaint250]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

[TheSaint250]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

[Heisenberg]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

Sine a has a ton of baggage and a radical past. She can be painted as an opportunist, flip-flopped, or a closeted version of her old self. Also, Flake really needs to define her (and Ward) to the voters early if he wants to win.

[Webnicz]

GOOD NEWS
Sinema's moderate voting record is good for a state like ours, she could win over more Romney voters in the soccer mom demographic (there's a lot of those in the east valley)

Those who talk about her "flaws from the past" I'll say this again, she is well respected among rebulicans, her rags to riches story is inspiring and she should continue to use it

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

I made a post explaining this on the previous page of this thread

[TheLeftwardTide]

I don't like Sinema; she voted to repeal the estate tax, and that crosses a line for me. Still, if I lived in Arizona I'd hold my nose and vote for her. She is somewhat opportunistic, which would play well with whoever is in power - if the Berniecrats manage to win big in 2020/2024, I could see her pivoting left, more likely so than someone like Heitkamp. Still, I'm hoping that Ruben Gallego runs.

[krazen1211]

Sine a has a ton of baggage and a radical past. She can be painted as an opportunist, flip-flopped, or a closeted version of her old self. Also, Flake really needs to define her (and Ward) to the voters early if he wants to win.

Need to go full identity politics on Sinema. Let's see if the voters really want a 40 year old.

[TheSaint250]

I don't like Sinema; she voted to repeal the estate tax, and that crosses a line for me. Still, if I lived in Arizona I'd hold my nose and vote for her. She is somewhat opportunistic, which would play well with whoever is in power - if the Berniecrats manage to win big in 2020/2024, I could see her pivoting left, more likely so than someone like Heitkamp. Still, I'm hoping that Ruben Gallego runs.

That first part sounds good, but I'd still vote against her

[PragmaticPopulist]

Sinema may not have the most progressive voting record, but what Bernie bros are forgetting is that this is Arizona, a state that Trump still won by 3% and one of the last statewide elected Democrats (Napolitano) was very moderate. I expect Sinema to not run as a lesbian atheist, but someone who just so happens to be a lesbian atheist. The story of her upbringing could be a big asset that has widespread appeal.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Sinema may not have the most progressive voting record, but what Bernie bros are forgetting is that this is Arizona, a state that Trump still won by 3% and one of the last statewide elected Democrats (Napolitano) was very moderate. I expect Sinema to not run as a lesbian atheist, but someone who just so happens to be a lesbian atheist. The story of her upbringing could be a big asset that has widespread appeal.

I agree with you that Sinema is probably a better fit for the state than a more progressive choice, but can we please stop using the term "Bernie Bro"? It does nothing at this point but silence women and people of color who are also on the left.

[MarkD]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

Isn't this a definite maybe that she might run? She is quoted as saying that she will make an announcement -- whether she will run against Flake -- in a few weeks.

[_]

Frankly who gives a damn what she is, what matters is that she's flip flopped on so many issues that the people of Arizona can't trust her to represent them.

[Holmes]

Frankly who gives a damn what she is, what matters is that she's flip flopped on so many issues that the people of Arizona can't trust her to represent them.

Did she not change her ideology as a legislator to better fit the district she represented at the time, ie did her best to most accurately represent her constituents?

[Fudotei]

Frankly who gives a damn what she is, what matters is that she's flip flopped on so many issues that the people of Arizona can't trust her to represent them.

Did she not change her ideology as a legislator to better fit the district she represented at the time, ie did her best to most accurately represent her constituents?

If we elect blank slate legislators to adjust their views depending on what the population overall wants, we'd be better off not electing legislators at all. Electing Sinema to do a referendum's job won't get either whatever Sinema wants or 'the will of Arizona's people' done.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Sinema may not have the most progressive voting record, but what Bernie bros are forgetting is that this is Arizona, a state that Trump still won by 3% and one of the last statewide elected Democrats (Napolitano) was very moderate. I expect Sinema to not run as a lesbian atheist, but someone who just so happens to be a lesbian atheist. The story of her upbringing could be a big asset that has widespread appeal.

I would still vote for her in the general if I lived in Arizona, and I would hope that the vast majority of Arizona Berniecrats would do the same. But that said, voting to repeal the estate tax is absolutely indefensible for a Democrat. Even if Arizona is a suburban state, it still doesn't make any sense, not logistically nor politically. There are much better ways to prove how fiscally moderate you are.