AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:08:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 31
Poll
Question: Could Martha McSally become the establishment candidate?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?  (Read 63559 times)
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #75 on: August 11, 2017, 07:59:17 PM »

I don't like Sinema; she voted to repeal the estate tax, and that crosses a line for me. Still, if I lived in Arizona I'd hold my nose and vote for her. She is somewhat opportunistic, which would play well with whoever is in power - if the Berniecrats manage to win big in 2020/2024, I could see her pivoting left, more likely so than someone like Heitkamp. Still, I'm hoping that Ruben Gallego runs.
Even if she's the bisexual atheist Joe Manchin, she's still better than Jeff "I have lots of concerns about Trump and the state of the GOP but I will do nothing to stop it" Flake.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #76 on: August 11, 2017, 08:09:37 PM »

I would not bet on Sinema - but I would absolutely bet against Flake winning re-election if he even goes through with running again.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #77 on: August 11, 2017, 08:33:47 PM »

I would not bet on Sinema - but I would absolutely bet against Flake winning re-election if he even goes through with running again.

Odds of winning the GOP primary: 62%
Odds of being reelected: 52%

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7344/Will-Jeff-Flake-win-the-2018-Arizona-Republican-Senate-primary#data
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7345/Will-Jeff-Flake-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Arizona-in-2018#data
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #78 on: August 11, 2017, 09:15:08 PM »

Sinema has a better chance at winning statewide than Kirkpatrick ever did

Sinema is from the PHX metro area and already has a well respected reputation in the area, even among valley republicans. And her name recognition is through the roof in the are compared to Kirkpatrick but this is obvious considering sinema is from here.

Kirkpatrick was also respected among republicans, however these were republicans from her rural district i.e Kirpatrick nearly won Navajo county while Clinton lost by 11. So when the time came, McCain was able to define/introduce her in the metro area before she could do it herself. As a result valley republicans gave into the "Obamacare Kirkpatrick" playbook pushed by McCain allies since they had no idea who she was. Sinema will not have this issue.

The Bernie crowd will LOVE the fact that Sinema has voted against Pelosi for Leader ever since she was elected, this doesn't allow the RNC to pull the "Sinema supports san fran liberal Pelosi" card that they pull on all the dems. This could be appealing to local republicans.

The Bernie crowd however could be reluctant that she has voted to fund the border wall, and opposes Syrian refugees etc

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2017/07/28/border-wall-funds-approved-house-az-delegation-split/517861001/
Logged
BlueDogDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 289
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #79 on: August 11, 2017, 11:08:27 PM »

I have a really hard time seeing Flake win if Sinema is the nominee and she runs a decent campaign and tries to ignore her religion. I can see it being used against her in ads in the more conservative part of the state.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #80 on: August 11, 2017, 11:26:46 PM »

I have a really hard time seeing Flake win if Sinema is the nominee and she runs a decent campaign and tries to ignore her religion. I can see it being used against her in ads in the more conservative part of the state.

"There is no god!"
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,967
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #81 on: August 11, 2017, 11:38:10 PM »

If this seat becomes an open one, this is the type that flips with a president at 38% approval. Also, Arizona 2018= Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin 2010??? I can see a left turn here.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #82 on: August 12, 2017, 07:08:26 AM »

Please don't reply to trolls. It's easier to keep the thread clean if people report posts instead.--Mod.
Logged
BlueDogDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 289
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #83 on: August 12, 2017, 09:43:39 AM »
« Edited: August 12, 2017, 09:46:40 AM by BlueDogDemocrat »

I have a really hard time seeing Flake win if Sinema is the nominee and she runs a decent campaign and tries to ignore her religion. I can see it being used against her in ads in the more conservative part of the state.

Even if they do that, it still would have a good chance of backfiring. Arizona is more secular and socially progressive (ie--libertarianish) than the nation at large, and many of those conservatives in those areas are themselves non-religious, pro-choice, and don't care about things like the LGBT culture wars. Take Kelli Ward for example: she's crazy, sure, but she's actually fairly moderate (read: libertarian) on social issues: she's nominally pro-choice and from what I can tell, never even brings up religion and other non-immigration social issues. So, I do think it would be pretty idiotic and tone-deaf for any outside groups to make Sinema's life style an issue.
Didn't they do that for her congressional campaign?
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,175
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #84 on: August 17, 2017, 06:10:15 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/898136462385979392

Ruh-roh.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #85 on: August 17, 2017, 06:12:11 AM »

She would definitely defeat Flake one to one
Logged
Fudotei
fudotei
Rookie
**
Posts: 217
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #86 on: August 17, 2017, 06:24:27 AM »

Ward is giving me Tea Party flashbacks.

Anyways.. confirmation of the long-standing theory that Trump will primary opponents within the Republican party. With Flake, it looks to be successful. I'm sure Flake is less popular with conservatives than he is with moderates, one of McCain's problems. A 51-40 win for John McCain is one thing; replicating that success with Jeff Flake, who is significantly less popular and less established, could seriously lead to Sen. Ward. Which, to be fair, is something I like.

A PPP poll in May 2016 - three months before the primary - showed Ward with 21% favorable and 20% unfavorable ratings. Compared to Flake, that could be enough.

Trump is also holding a rally in Arizona soon where he will probably make this more official. Ward'll be there, he'll pardon Arpaio, the whole gang.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,615


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #87 on: August 17, 2017, 06:28:26 AM »


Game over to be called toxic by Trump. Tongue
Logged
BudgieForce
superbudgie1582
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,298


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #88 on: August 17, 2017, 07:08:59 AM »

I have a really hard time seeing Flake win if Sinema is the nominee and she runs a decent campaign and tries to ignore her religion. I can see it being used against her in ads in the more conservative part of the state.

"There is no god!"

Kay Hagan was a sunday school teacher so Elizabeth Doles attack ad seemed liked a desperate lie. Sinema is an open non-theist though so I dont know how a similar attack ad would play in Arizona.
Logged
_
Not_Madigan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,103
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: -7.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #89 on: August 17, 2017, 07:11:09 AM »

I seriously wake up to this?

fml
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #90 on: August 17, 2017, 07:44:54 AM »


I guess that's an endorsement?
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #91 on: August 17, 2017, 08:22:27 AM »

LOL at the new thread title!
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #92 on: August 17, 2017, 08:37:42 AM »

These thread titles are genius XD
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #93 on: August 17, 2017, 09:29:17 AM »


He should have concluded the tweet with a Bad! … Sad!
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #94 on: August 17, 2017, 09:51:30 AM »

Ward is giving me Tea Party flashbacks.

Anyways.. confirmation of the long-standing theory that Trump will primary opponents within the Republican party. With Flake, it looks to be successful. I'm sure Flake is less popular with conservatives than he is with moderates, one of McCain's problems. A 51-40 win for John McCain is one thing; replicating that success with Jeff Flake, who is significantly less popular and less established, could seriously lead to Sen. Ward. Which, to be fair, is something I like.

A PPP poll in May 2016 - three months before the primary - showed Ward with 21% favorable and 20% unfavorable ratings. Compared to Flake, that could be enough.

Trump is also holding a rally in Arizona soon where he will probably make this more official. Ward'll be there, he'll pardon Arpaio, the whole gang.

Im not sure if this is an actual endorsement. The RNC and mcconnel(if the relationship brightens) will convince him to walk back on the comments.

As far as Arpaio goes, If trump actually pardons this man he will loose Maricopa county in 2020 thus loosing AZ, that man is so unpopular. The AZ state party already plans to tie every republican they can to the former sheriff the same way the GOP does to Pelosi(they should have done this in '16 but I assume they wanted to wait until they knew for sure he was unpopular the double digit victory confirmed it), I think it will be quite effective in turning the tides in AZ
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,234
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #95 on: August 17, 2017, 10:05:52 AM »

Ward is giving me Tea Party flashbacks.

Anyways.. confirmation of the long-standing theory that Trump will primary opponents within the Republican party. With Flake, it looks to be successful. I'm sure Flake is less popular with conservatives than he is with moderates, one of McCain's problems. A 51-40 win for John McCain is one thing; replicating that success with Jeff Flake, who is significantly less popular and less established, could seriously lead to Sen. Ward. Which, to be fair, is something I like.

A PPP poll in May 2016 - three months before the primary - showed Ward with 21% favorable and 20% unfavorable ratings. Compared to Flake, that could be enough.

Trump is also holding a rally in Arizona soon where he will probably make this more official. Ward'll be there, he'll pardon Arpaio, the whole gang.

Im not sure if this is an actual endorsement. The RNC and mcconnel(if the relationship brightens) will convince him to walk back on the comments.

As far as Arpaio goes, If trump actually pardons this man he will loose Maricopa county in 2020 thus loosing AZ, that man is so unpopular. The AZ state party already plans to tie every republican they can to the former sheriff the same way the GOP does to Pelosi(they should have done this in '16 but I assume they wanted to wait until they knew for sure he was unpopular the double digit victory confirmed it), I think it will be quite effective in turning the tides in AZ
And losing Maricopa County spells doom for a Republican statewide in AZ. Democrats don't even need to win Maricopa to win statewide. I'm tempted to say this race is now a tossup., but Ward could still be favored in a general.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #96 on: August 17, 2017, 10:47:27 AM »

Kelli Ward is not a good candidate. I wish there was somebody else. At this rate, the seat will be gone. Sad
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #97 on: August 17, 2017, 11:39:30 AM »

This single tweet makes what would be a standard trump rally next week so much more significant.
Logged
Heisenberg
SecureAmerica
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,110
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #98 on: August 17, 2017, 12:11:45 PM »

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #99 on: August 17, 2017, 12:28:58 PM »

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.

these articles came out earlier and cited sources that said trump was comping to town to endorse dewitt. It could appear trump was going to back any challenger to Flake, Dewitt might have backed out late last nigh which would explain why the tweet was so late. Trump was going to back anyone. Dewitt backed out so he moved on to plan B which was Ward

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/16/roberts-trump-headed-phoenix-endorse-flake-challenger/573151001/

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/16/trump-expected-endorse-challenger-jeff-flake/

might I add both articles were published before the tweet, so even if the sources weren't right about Dewitt they could be right about traveling to make an endorsement against Flake.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 31  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 15 queries.