AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Heisenberg]

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.

these articles came out earlier and cited sources that said trump was comping to town to endorse dewitt. It could appear trump was going to back any challenger to Flake, Dewitt might have backed out late last nigh which would explain why the tweet was so late. Trump was going to back anyone. Dewitt backed out so he moved on to plan B which was Ward

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/16/roberts-trump-headed-phoenix-endorse-flake-challenger/573151001/

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/16/trump-expected-endorse-challenger-jeff-flake/

might I add both articles were published before the tweet, so even if the sources weren't right about Dewitt they could be right about traveling to make an endorsement against Flake.

Ah, thanks. So it seems like Trump was just going for "any challenger" rather than a calculated move. What about Graham (or Frank's or Schweikert) who were also considering? I guess Flake still has a chance, but this will really hurt Republicans in Arizona. I think it'll have a 2 Democrat Senate delegation VERY soon.

[_]

Tossup now.

[I’m not Stu]

Even if DeWit runs, Trump will endorse Ward. Trump is known to throw his loyal close associates under the bus, like Jeff Sessions.

[Maxwell]

Ward will win the primary handily and should not be underestimated in the general.

I totally agree, unfortunately.

[Kingpoleon]

I would prefer someone actually sane, like Ben Quayle or Jan Brewer, primary Flake.

[Kamala]

I would prefer someone actually sane, like Ben Quayle or Jan Brewer, primary Flake.

I don't know if I'd call Brewer sane. Compared to Ward, sure... but who isn't?

[Maxwell]

el o el Ben Quayle.

you know what? compared to Kelli Ward, whose savagery and lack of being a human knows no bounds, Quayle's dopey attitude is downright charming.

[Badger]

Yeah, Jeff Flake is terrible. The only reason he "stands up" for the Muslim Democrat is because:

- They have no chance of winning
- Mormons generally sympathize with other religious minorities due to their own history
- He's an occasional showboater

Not to mention he stands to gain bigly by highlighting this woman's candidacy. If she wins, his potential swing race turns safe overnight.

[MarkD]

Kelli Ward is not a good candidate. I wish there was somebody else. At this rate, the seat will be gone.

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.

these articles came out earlier and cited sources that said trump was comping to town to endorse dewitt. It could appear trump was going to back any challenger to Flake, Dewitt might have backed out late last nigh which would explain why the tweet was so late. Trump was going to back anyone. Dewitt backed out so he moved on to plan B which was Ward

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/16/roberts-trump-headed-phoenix-endorse-flake-challenger/573151001/

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/16/trump-expected-endorse-challenger-jeff-flake/

might I add both articles were published before the tweet, so even if the sources weren't right about Dewitt they could be right about traveling to make an endorsement against Flake.

Ah, thanks. So it seems like Trump was just going for "any challenger" rather than a calculated move. What about Graham (or Frank's or Schweikert) who were also considering? I guess Flake still has a chance, but this will really hurt Republicans in Arizona. I think it'll have a 2 Democrat Senate delegation VERY soon.

How about a pharmacist/political novice, like this guy? According to FEC reports, he has raised no money yet.
Nicolas Tutora

I'm just joking. I scan through The Green Papers looking for people who are not yet posted in Wikipedia that they are candidates, and once in a while I come with someone like this.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, Jeff Flake is terrible. The only reason he "stands up" for the Muslim Democrat is because:

- They have no chance of winning
- Mormons generally sympathize with other religious minorities due to their own history
- He's an occasional showboater

Not to mention he stands to gain bigly by highlighting this woman's candidacy. If she wins, his potential swing race turns safe overnight.

This. If Flake wins his primary, he could be looking to replicate McCaskill's 2012 success.

[Bidenworth2020]

I am aware she is busy, ya know, heading the UC system, but if she ran could she win?

[Maxwell]

i mean probably. I don't think winning Flake's senate seat should be that difficult. If Dems can't win it against a Senator with 18% approval rating then its a sign that the Dems are a failed party.

[I’m not Stu]

Possibly

[politicallefty]

I actually thought about that recently, but I think the fact that she now lives in California is probably a step too far (not to mention a noteworthy move out of elective politics). If she still lived in Arizona, I think she would be one of the most formidable candidates Democrats could put forward.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

i mean probably. I don't think winning Flake's senate seat should be that difficult. If Dems can't win it against a Senator with 18% approval rating then its a sign that the Dems are a failed party.

Sure, let's take some random individual/singular poll's advice from well over a year before an election, and treat it like it is the new 11th commandment.

[Webnicz]

bye bye Flake

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I can't wait til we get a double-whammy tomorrow in Phoenix: Trump endorsing Ward in the primary and pardoning a racist sheriff who lost reelection by 13 points in a county with 60% of the state's residents.

If he does go through with this pardon it could be a serious liability for the AZGOP and trump winning AZ in 2020. The ads write themselves.
Heck even if flake wins his primary he could be tied to Arpaio and how he said nothing while trump let him walk free

[President Johnson]

I'm curious whether the God Emperor will mention Flake tomorrow at his rally circus.

[Cactus Jack]

Arizona's GOP governor to skip Trump rally

100% transparently insincere, but also smart. Ducey understands that the last thing he needs, going into a reelection campaign, is ammunition directly tying him to Trump.

[I’m not Stu]

If Flake wins the GOP primary, does he win the general?

[Canis]

If Flake wins the GOP primary, does he win the general?

It depends on the margin and who the dems nominate if he wins by a big margin and the dems nominate some no name state senator than flake crushes but if its close and the democrats nominate someone popular and with name recognition its likely he falls

[I’m not Stu]

If Flake wins the GOP primary, does he win the general?

It depends on the margin and who the dems nominate if he wins by a big margin and the dems nominate some no name state senator than flake crushes but if its close and the democrats nominate someone popular and with name recognition its likely he falls

It's likely Democrats nominate Kyrsten Sinema. How would Flake do against Sinema?

[I’m not Stu]

If Flake wins the GOP primary, does he win the general?

It depends on the margin and who the dems nominate if he wins by a big margin and the dems nominate some no name state senator than flake crushes but if its close and the democrats nominate someone popular and with name recognition its likely he falls

It's likely Democrats nominate Kyrsten Sinema. How would Flake do against Sinema?

Hmm Shes managed to widen her lead in every election shes been in which is quite impresive
AZ9 2012
Kyrsten Sinema 48.73%
AZ9 2014
Kyrsten Sinema 54.60%
AZ9 2016
Kyrsten Sinema  60.94%
She's Atheist and Bi but that doesn't seem to hurt her much in this state
If Flake barely survives his primary then she will most definitely win
If Fake crushes it in his primary then it will be a complete tossup

AZ statewide (R+5) is more GOP than AZ-9 (D+4). Who would be favored in a tossup if Flake easily wins the primary? If Flake is easily renominated, would the race be tilt R, 50-50, or tilt D?

[Canis]

If Flake wins the GOP primary, does he win the general?

It depends on the margin and who the dems nominate if he wins by a big margin and the dems nominate some no name state senator than flake crushes but if its close and the democrats nominate someone popular and with name recognition its likely he falls

It's likely Democrats nominate Kyrsten Sinema. How would Flake do against Sinema?

Hmm Shes managed to widen her lead in every election shes been in which is quite impresive
AZ9 2012
Kyrsten Sinema 48.73%
AZ9 2014
Kyrsten Sinema 54.60%
AZ9 2016
Kyrsten Sinema  60.94%
She's Atheist and Bi but that doesn't seem to hurt her much in this state
If Flake barely survives his primary then she will most definitely win
If Fake crushes it in his primary then it will be a complete tossup

AZ statewide (R+5) is more GOP than AZ-9 (D+4). Who would be favored in a tossup if Flake easily wins the primary? If Flake is easily renominated, would the race be tilt R, 50-50, or tilt D?

Tilt R definetly unless Krysten can out campaign Flake I was saying it was impressive that she managed to widen her margin

[Cactus Jack]

If Trump actually pardons Arpaio tomorrow, it'll probably end Flake's GE chances and absolutely destroy Ward's.

[I’m not Stu]

If Flake wins the GOP primary, does he win the general?

It depends on the margin and who the dems nominate if he wins by a big margin and the dems nominate some no name state senator than flake crushes but if its close and the democrats nominate someone popular and with name recognition its likely he falls

It's likely Democrats nominate Kyrsten Sinema. How would Flake do against Sinema?

Hmm Shes managed to widen her lead in every election shes been in which is quite impresive
AZ9 2012
Kyrsten Sinema 48.73%
AZ9 2014
Kyrsten Sinema 54.60%
AZ9 2016
Kyrsten Sinema  60.94%
She's Atheist and Bi but that doesn't seem to hurt her much in this state
If Flake barely survives his primary then she will most definitely win
If Fake crushes it in his primary then it will be a complete tossup

AZ statewide (R+5) is more GOP than AZ-9 (D+4). Who would be favored in a tossup if Flake easily wins the primary? If Flake is easily renominated, would the race be tilt R, 50-50, or tilt D?

Tilt R definetly unless Krysten can out campaign Flake I was saying it was impressive that she managed to widen her margin

Popular incumbents generally widen their margin because they have the advantage of incumbency. It's very common for incumbents to widen their margin, especially in places that trend the incumbents' way.