AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Heisenberg]

I'd be alright with Sinema so long as she doesn't veer into SJW territory. Obviously I want a Republican for political reasons but Sinema isn't a bad choice.

Sinema was certainly very SJW pre-2013. I can see her moving back that direction if she stays in the House, as her seat does continue to trend left. I don't like her at all. Sounds like a typical condescending politician who changes positions however the wind blows. Someone I can't help but really hate.

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

I totally agree. As a Republican, Stanton legitimately scares me more than Sinema.

[Heisenberg]

Once McCain retires in 2022, someone big will win for DEM's in AZ.

Not to sound morbid, but he'll probably be gone sooner.

[Heisenberg]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

Sine a has a ton of baggage and a radical past. She can be painted as an opportunist, flip-flopped, or a closeted version of her old self. Also, Flake really needs to define her (and Ward) to the voters early if he wants to win.

[Heisenberg]

Kelli Ward is not a good candidate. I wish there was somebody else. At this rate, the seat will be gone.

[Heisenberg]

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.

[Heisenberg]

Still any chance that DeWit jumps in and Trump actually ends up backing him? It would look really bad after that tweet, but he's clearly much better and saner. Last night, the Washington Times reported hat Trump was leaning towards supporting DeWit, who was still eyeing the race, but this morning seems to have changed things.

these articles came out earlier and cited sources that said trump was comping to town to endorse dewitt. It could appear trump was going to back any challenger to Flake, Dewitt might have backed out late last nigh which would explain why the tweet was so late. Trump was going to back anyone. Dewitt backed out so he moved on to plan B which was Ward

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/16/roberts-trump-headed-phoenix-endorse-flake-challenger/573151001/

http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/16/trump-expected-endorse-challenger-jeff-flake/

might I add both articles were published before the tweet, so even if the sources weren't right about Dewitt they could be right about traveling to make an endorsement against Flake.

Ah, thanks. So it seems like Trump was just going for "any challenger" rather than a calculated move. What about Graham (or Frank's or Schweikert) who were also considering? I guess Flake still has a chance, but this will really hurt Republicans in Arizona. I think it'll have a 2 Democrat Senate delegation VERY soon.

[Heisenberg]

I'd like to point out that Gillibrand started as a blue dog and has shifted much more left ever since becoming Senator of New York. I only say that because I imagine Sinema having the similar trajectory.

Gillibrand was moderate to represent her moderate district and became progressive to represent her new constituents.

Sinema is moderate to represent her somewhat moderate district, I would likely see her shift even more to the right as a senator. I could see her being up there with Heitkamp.

Doubt it. AZ as a whole is only trending more and more left.

[Heisenberg]

Jeff DeWit seems to know he's wanted. Probably the best shot at keeping the seat now, TBH.

https://twitter.com/JeffDeWitAZ/status/922906754723192832

I hope he runs. I think he's the strongest candidate to beat Sinema.

[Heisenberg]

ahugecat is filling the role EnglishPete and Seriously? have left behind. He is a righteous Christian warrior fighting against the tyranny of the left.

lol, I forgot about Seriously? Whatever happened to him?

I think (but I'm not certain) he got permabanned.

[Heisenberg]

Gosar is out.

I wonder if the letter had anything to do? Also, do you think Ward would have dropped down to run for AZ-04 if Gosar ran for Senate?

All of Gosar’s siblings have signed a letter condemning him in pretty blunt terms for his use of anti-Semitic dog whistles.

One of his brothers, Pete, is a former Wyoming Democratic Party Chairman, and was the 2014 nominee for WY-GOV.

[Heisenberg]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

[Heisenberg]

Conservatives, maybe, but not independents and moderates. Salmon made headlines a few years back for snubbing SSM even though his son is gay. Being who she is, Sinema would absolutely destroy him for it.

a. This was before Obergefell v. Hodges. Today, he could go the "it's settled law" route.
b. He still said that he accepted his son's homosexuality.
c. I doubt it'll even be that big of an issue. Fiscal issues, the border, and Trump will take center stage.

[Heisenberg]

McSally might wait for McCain's seat & let Salmon run for this one. Also, Sinema might get a primary from Mark Kelly.

Kelly would also be best advised waiting for McCain's seat. Both parties would look better running veterans for it.

I think Stanton will run for the other seat. I believe his run for AZ-09 was just to set up a federal account so he can start fundraising now and then transfer to the other race when McCain croaks and a Special Election is called.

[Heisenberg]

Data Orbital poll of the GOP primary:

Ward 26%
McSally 19%
Salmon 10%
Schweikert 5%
Shadegg 4%
Heiler 1%

Great poll! (?)

Seems like a lot of potential upside for McSally if she can consolidate the non-chemtrail vote.

I don't think so. She was NeverTrump

And the Club for Growth has said they will strongly attack her if she gets in. I can see Salmon consolidate the Schweikert/Shaddegg people into his camp, win over undecideds, and possibly pick off support from Ward and/or McSally (if she even runs). Salmon will probably win the primary if he runs, but it will take work.

[Heisenberg]

Arizona has a Mormon electorate that Republicans can't afford to lose. Flake is Mormon. Mormons tend to vote for one of their own and Flake winning that vote would create enough of a spoiler effect to cost Ward the seat. Flake won't run as an independent, but if he chose to do so he'd hurt Ward.

That's part of the reason I want Salmon to run, he's Mormon, too, and represented the same seat Flake did. That's one of his biggest strengths.

[Heisenberg]

Rand Paul endorses Chemtrail Keilli

Ugh, not surprised though. She had been actively lobbying for him to do so. We'll see if this has weight, I doubt it'll stop someone like Salmon from entering.

[Heisenberg]

My beef with Rand Paul is not his views, it's the fact that ever since he conceded the nomination he has been proving over and over again he's an opportunist. He's been very inconsistent with his beliefs, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if his views aligned more with Sinema than Ward.

LOL no. Remember, partisanship is really high, and each seat really matters. Even if so, he'd never endorse her. Also, Ward is considered to be a more libertarian-leaning Republican in the mold of Lee/Paul, while Sinema strikes me as a Lieberman-type in some ways.

[Heisenberg]

All it says is she's telling her colleagues that she'll run for Senate. What if she's referring to McCain's seat (whenever he croaks and the Special is called)?

[Heisenberg]

Paul Gosar now back to considering a run for Senate.

Bridget Bowman‏ @bridgetbhc
Gosar tells reporters he’s a considering Senate run. On McSally, he said, “She had to make a decision...good for her.” #AZSen @rollcall
1:43 PM - 7 Nov 2017

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/927969686431649798

I hope he runs for Flake's seat, and then Kelli Ward runs for AZ-04. She fits that district like a glove.