AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[BuckeyeNut]

"Property magnate." Just because he hasn't yet doesn't mean he won't.

[BuckeyeNut]

Go, go Sinema!

[BuckeyeNut]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

[BuckeyeNut]

Can we please talk about Arizona and not re-hash the Israel-Palestine conflict?

[BuckeyeNut]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

[BuckeyeNut]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

You don't see how that could be an effective attack ad?  What about the quote about stay at home moms?  I don't get what rationale there could possibly be for running Sinema instead of Stanton.

I see how it could be, I'm just not sure how well it would land, given the war's unpopularity.

The stay-at-home mom's quote is bad, definitely, but it makes me wonder why it wasn't used when she was running for the House back in 2012. I'm definitely more sceptical of her than I was.

That said, Kelly-hype seems overblown. As an Ohioan, I get the collective boner people have for astronauts in politics, but is Kelly that popular in AZ itself? Do we know he can campaign?

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, Jeff Flake is terrible. The only reason he "stands up" for the Muslim Democrat is because:

- They have no chance of winning
- Mormons generally sympathize with other religious minorities due to their own history
- He's an occasional showboater

Not to mention he stands to gain bigly by highlighting this woman's candidacy. If she wins, his potential swing race turns safe overnight.

This. If Flake wins his primary, he could be looking to replicate McCaskill's 2012 success.

[BuckeyeNut]

If it's Ward v. Sinema, as much as I hate to give my (symbolic) endorsement to an atheist, I have to go with Sinema. There are simply no circumstances where it is safe to let Chemtrail Kelli into the Senate.

I often find myself very deeply questioning your logic, Wulf, but in this I proudly welcome you to Convoy Kyrsten.

Also, as an Arizonan, I can completely confirm the analysis in this thread: Flake's career is over, this seat is probably ours, and I'm finally willing to give up my Representative for the sake of taking it. I just hope Stanton jumps in to claim her seat when she makes the announcement.

Is it better to have Stanton run for Sinema's seat or for Governor?

[BuckeyeNut]

McCain doesn't even need to die for there to be a special election in 2018, 2020, or even 2019. Resigning to commit himself to fighting his diagnosis would be a very reasonable thing to do, as it would be for any Democrat in a similar situation. (Even if Ted Kennedy didn't.)

[BuckeyeNut]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Color me skeptical on the age cross-tabs.

Same. Though appreciate your analysis, Pollster.

[BuckeyeNut]

Voting with the President 95% of the time? Are you an idiot?

I know how politics work.

They let McCain, Murkowski, and Collins take the fall. Flake is a RINO anti-Trump piece of crap through and through. McCain votes 85% among Trump too.

It's like when they sent 593953953 Obamacare repeal bills to Obama's desk just to get vetoed, but once they get a President that won't veto it all of a sudden they got nothing.

How can you not know how politics is played?

No, you clearly do not.

[BuckeyeNut]

Also McSally leaving the 2nd makes it a prime pick up opportunity for Kirkpatrick.

Yeah, D+1 downticket.

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of people on this forum are highly underestimating Ward she is clearly the front runner for the Gop Nomination if she wins it I say theirs a solid 45% chance Flake runs as an independent

Flake decided to resign because he knew he was going to lose to Ward.

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of people on this forum are highly underestimating Ward she is clearly the front runner for the Gop Nomination if she wins it I say theirs a solid 45% chance Flake runs as an independent

Are you a moron? Flake decided to resign because he knew he was going to lose to Ward.

No, I believe he would want to do it to stop Ward

Flake is resigning because he doesn't think he can stop Ward. What you are proposing makes absolutely no sense.

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of people on this forum are highly underestimating Ward she is clearly the front runner for the Gop Nomination if she wins it I say theirs a solid 45% chance Flake runs as an independent

Are you a moron? Flake decided to resign because he knew he was going to lose to Ward.

No, I believe he would want to do it to stop Ward

Flake is resigning because he doesn't think he can stop Ward. What you are proposing makes absolutely no sense.

As an independant ding dong he can siphon enough votes from Ward to make her lose

Yes, I know you mean as an Independent. I'm not illiterate, this idea is just stupid.

Flake has no interest in seeing a Democrat elected to his Senate seat, even if Ward is the Republican. Flake is a very conservative politician, despite his nice-guy demeanor.

[BuckeyeNut]

Arpaio and Kelli running could split the Crazy Caucus and allow a much more competent candidate through to the general. Plus, have we all forgotten those who rooted for Trump because he would be the easiest for Clinton to take out? I do not wish for a second there is a world where there is any chance Arpaio wins a Senate general election. I hope he stays out.