AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Flake tweets his support for one of his Democratic opponents, who is Muslim and is being harassed.

Jeff Flake @JeffFlake
Hang in there @deedra2018. Sorry you have to put up with this. Lots of wonderful people across AZ. You'll find them.

https://twitter.com/jeffflake/status/887490249013825536

wtf i love flake now

God damnit. Why does one of our only pickup opportunities have to be such a nice guy?

Wait... people actually believe this s***?  Flake is objectively one of the single worst human beings in the Senate.  He's pretty obviously doing this as a cheap political ploy to get people to react exactly the way you guys just did  This isn't Ben Sasse or Tom Coburn we're talking about, Flake's not a right-winger who still seems like a fairly decent guy despite some awful political views.  We're talking about someone who wrote the mother of a Newtown victim a supposedly hand-written letter in which he expressed support for universal background checks and then once he'd soaked up a bunch of good press for being a "compassionate conservative" or whatever proceeded to vote to filibuster Manchin-Toomey and denied ever saying he supported any form of background checks (and started bouncing all over the place once he got called out on this).  I mean, Flake could've just respectfully talked about why he opposes background checks while still acknowledging the mother's loss.  Instead, he behaved like a monster.

Then there's the fact that Flake testified in support of the Apartheid government of South Africa (albeit not its racial policies, but even so) while a lobbyist for a Namibian uranium mine and testified in opposition to US sanctions on against the Apartheid government by essentially claiming that the South African groups that called for the international community to place economic sanctions on the Apartheid regime simply didn't know what was good for them.  And of course, who can forget Flake's classic answer to his AZ-6 constituents when asked why he was breaking his term-limits pledge: "I lied."

Oh and before anyone calls him a NeverTrump Republican, he made it pretty clear in 2016 that his issue with Trump was that he thought Republicans were throwing away an easily winnable election.  After Trump won, Flake would jubilantly talk about how happy he was to be "eating crow" and never really criticized Trump all that loudly (if at all) once Trump took office.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

While not ideal for a statewide candidate in Arizona, being a gay atheist is hardly the most troubling baggage Sinema has, for example:

- She's former Green Party member who worked for Nader's campaign in 2000 and then as soon as she decided to run for a swingy house district conveniently decided that she was always a centrist all along (b/c that doesn't make her look like a soulless flip-flopper or anything )

- Sinema used to be a spokeswoman for a group that was literally founded to support Palestinian terrorist groups during the first Intifada (btw, Sinema has a long history of advocating anti-Israel policies and generally being an apologist for groups like the PLO, idk if this remained the case after she got elected to Congress though)

- Sinema also co-founded a group that called military action against Al-Qaeda "an inappropriate response" to 9/11.

- Back when she was a State Rep, Sinema referred to stay-at-home moms as "women who act like staying at home, leeching off their husbands or boyfriends, and just cashing the checks is some sort of feminism."

I mean come on, the attack ads write themselves.  You don't even need smears to make a compelling argument that Sinema has no business being in the Senate.  I might even vote third-party if she were the Democratic nominee and I lived in Arizona, tbh.  If Sinema runs then she'll be one of those candidates who seems like a solid recruit until they win the nomination and then suddenly implodes in spectacular fashion.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Stanton would be an infinitely better candidate.  I'm not sure why folks want Sinema to run and potentially blow one of our few good opportunities to pickup a Senate seat this cycle.

Gay atheists today, gay atheists tomorrow, gay atheists forever!

- Sinema used to be a spokeswoman for a group that was literally founded to support Palestinian terrorist liberation groups during the first Intifada (btw, Sinema has a long history of advocating anti-Israel policies and generally being an apologist for groups like the PLO, idk if this remained the case after she got elected to Congress though)

The fact that this is considered a liability shows how much we've decided to abandon what's right in favor of a prophecy in a fiction book written thousands of years ago.

Call me old-fashioned, but I always considered deliberately blowing up civilians and using the cold-blooded murder of non-combatants as a political strategy to be terrorism.  Then again, I also have this crazy idea that maybe...juuuuuuust maybe, it's wrong to try to blow up school buses filled with innocent children, so what do I know?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wow, X, those sure are some amazing attack ads you came up with about things she did when she was in college. It's a wonder the GOP didn't manage to sink her by 40 points back in 2012 when this district was pretty competitive!  And I mean, if you're worried about her changing her positions in the Senate, this is Arizona not New York.  It's not as if she's going to pull a Kirsten Gillibrand. If anything, she might even move further to the center.

I guess Vernon Parker was a crappy candidate in 2012, huh?  No argument from me there (and yet he still almost won in a mildly Democratic district)  Anyway, they weren't just things from when she was in college.  Some even happened while she was a state representative.  And I'm sorry, but co-founding a group that opposed taking any military response to 9/11 is pretty much a deal-breaker or should be.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

You don't see how that could be an effective attack ad?  What about the quote about stay at home moms?  I don't get what rationale there could possibly be for running Sinema instead of Stanton.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I mean I'm not the biggest fan of Sinema either, given some of her anti-refugee stances and general grandstanding. And it's a bit weird that she doesn't seemed to have acknowledged her past. At least Tulsi Gabbard explains why she changed positions on issues over time. I just don't think her campaign would be this big disaster, and I definitely wouldn't pick Mitch McConnell as majority leader over her in the Senate.

I think Stanton would be favored over Flake while Sinema would lose (how much is up for debate), that's my biggest concern here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Given how unpopular voting for the war was in hindsight, I wonder if that's really even true. But I'm a member of a peace church, so what do I know?

As for Nader, my impression, perhaps falsely, is that when Sinema was in the State House, she served in a district much more liberal than her Congressional district, and legislated appropriately. Moderating somewhat in a run for higher office doesn't bother me much.

You don't see how that could be an effective attack ad?  What about the quote about stay at home moms?  I don't get what rationale there could possibly be for running Sinema instead of Stanton.

I see how it could be, I'm just not sure how well it would land, given the war's unpopularity.

The stay-at-home mom's quote is bad, definitely, but it makes me wonder why it wasn't used when she was running for the House back in 2012. I'm definitely more sceptical of her than I was.

That said, Kelly-hype seems overblown. As an Ohioan, I get the collective boner people have for astronauts in politics, but is Kelly that popular in AZ itself? Do we know he can campaign?

- Re: The 9/11 thing: For some reason, I feel like AZ is a very pro-military state and that the defense industry employs a lot of folks there, so that's another thing to consider (I could be misremembering though).  Either way though, I definitely think a solid "soft on terror" attack ad or two would hurt Sinema a lot with the type of voters Democrats need in order to win a high-profile statewide race in AZ.  That's a state where you need more than just solid Hispanic turnout and the Democratic base, we also need folks who - though not necessarily fierce partisans - tend to break for the Republican candidate all things being equal.  I'm not saying we need a conservaDem, but we do need someone who is A) a top-tier *and* reasonably inoffensive candidate and B) win over swing voters and some of the less partisan Republicans.  Even against a weak Republican like Flake, that's currently the only way we can win statewide in AZ.  Flake knows this which is why he's already trying to define himself as a Reasonable NeverTrump Moderate  

- Sinema's 2012 opponent was pretty weak, ran a lousy campaign (his attack ads were primarily of the "Godless atheist heathen" variety), and on paper Sinema should've really won by a much larger margin (I believe he also had little money after barely winning an absolutely brutal clown car primary).  She hasn't faced a serious opponent since (I think this seat was a big recruiting failure for Republicans in 2014, tbh).  I mean, Sinema's toughest opponent was a weak and underfunded B-lister who ran a weak campaign and still almost beat her in 2012 despite the district's mild Democratic lean.  She's never faced a strong opponent and while Flake isn't a very strong incumbent, he's not as weak as he looks on paper either and has already beat a tougher opponent than Sinema in 2012.  Plus, AZ is a Republican-leaning state.  As a result, we'll need an A-lister without any serious baggage to beat Flake and Stanton fits the bill far better than Sinema (or Kelly, for that matter).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

Ask and you shall receive.  PPP has Flake at 18/62 approval/disapproval, and losing to a generic D 31/47.  They also have Trump's approval at 44/53.  The poll was conducted July 31-August 1 among 704 Arizona voters.  http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PPP-Poll-Arizona.pdf

I'd like confirmation, but if that's accurate...wow

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Sinema is in; Stanton to run in Sinema's vacated seat

That has to be the fastest turnaround ever.

Booo

I made a post explaining this on the previous page of this thread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

YYUUUGGGEE if true

Schumer tells Sinema he's backing her in Ariz. Senate race

Booooooooooo!

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Where is Greg Stanton? I thought he was talked about as one of the top Democratic candidates for this seat. Was I wrong? Because I've barely heard anything about him for months.

He is, but he'd be stronger in the GE than the primary.  So if you're Stanton, you can either A) risk ending your career in a bruising primary battle or B) run for a safe Democratic open house seat and wait for McCain's Senate seat to open up (pretty sure Stanton would clear the field under such circumstances).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sorry for asking such an #analysis-sounding question, but will Sinema's far-left past be a problem? Was it a problem in 2012 when she won her House seat?

God knows Vern Parker tried to make it into one (bear in mind that this was when Arizona was still buying hard into the socialist-hating Tea Party thing), but it didn't stick. It'll be even less relevant now, what with Sinema having proven to be a fairly hard-and-fast Blue Dog in Congress and Ward, Sinema's likeliest opponent by my estimation, being in absolutely no place to accuse someone else of extremism.

Vernon Parker only lost by 4% in a presidential election year despite being a pretty weak candidate, so I'd argue there's at least some evidence that those attacks worked pretty well.  Plus, Sinema has made a couple of really bad gaffes that are prime attack ad material and she's got a problematic history on several foreign policy/national security issues.  She'd also be really easy to attack as a huge flip-flopper.  I'm not saying Sinema can't beat Flake and Ward would probably get killed, but Sinema's not some sort of unstoppable electoral juggernaut.  She's a decent recruit and (IIRC) a solid fundraiser, but she also has some significant baggage that a few folks here seem to be in denial about.  I worry less about the socialist attacks than I do about things like what she's said about single mothers, 9/11, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the military (AZ is a big defense industry state IIRC), etc.  I think she's certainly favored right now, but Flake could still beat her if he makes it to the GE.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'd say Ward has no chance of winning the GE barring a massive scandal/implosion by Sinema while Flake has about a 30% chance of winning the GE if he makes it that far (although that'll likely drop further at this rate).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I am seeing Arizona operatives praise Gosar, Dewitt, and Graham. Gosar was out previously, but flake's decision to flake could change that. Any of these candidates would beat Ward and more easily defeat Sinema.

Gosar and Graham would get absolutely destroyed.  DeWitt is a Trumpist IIRC and I’m not super impressed with him as a candidate.  Honestly, I think Gosar might very well lose by more than Flake would have had he been nominated.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

All of Gosar’s siblings have signed a letter condemning him in pretty blunt terms for his use of anti-Semitic dog whistles.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just like Flake, whose lack of a competitive race in the heavily Republican AZ-06 (old lines) during the 2000's, proved to be a hindrance in the 2012 general election.


I never said Democrats cannot win in AZ. I said that Democrats have struggled statewide and have not gotten above ~45% or so in any race for President or Senate in the past 20 years. Even in 2016, with Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, and a massive pro-Democratic Trend in AZ-07 (urban hispanics and young voters), and the defection of close to 8% of the traditional vote to third party candidates or to Clinton in the heavily Republican AZ-06 (current lines), still did not get Clinton above 44% of the vote statewide. The exact same percentage that Obama got against Mitt Romney, who I would point out was a far better fit for AZ then Trump.

There have been times where Democrats have broken through. Clinton in the 1990's and Napolitano in 2002, which were the result of vote splits with third party candidates. In local races yes, including the most prominent one for sheriff, where the Republican was under indictment I would point out. Winning a county wide race is one thing were local issues matter more, but that is a different matter than putting a Democrat in the US Senate. Could it happen? Certainly! I would just say that it is not a certainty.

IIRC, in 2002 it was with a liberal third-party candidate making Napolitano’s win even more impressive.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

McSally will lose to Sinema.

This is exactly why she should wait for mccain's seat

I think that's what she wants. I also think that only DeWit can beat Sinema. McSally also would have trouble in a primary, the Trumpists aren't going to like a moderate, McCain-loving warmonger. But she may announce just so donors know she's running for Senate, and switch to the other seat once McCain croaks (nobody will admit to it now, but I'm almost certain hell croak pretty soon). I also think that Stanton is planning to run for that seat, but announced for AZ-09 so he could create a federal account.

I may not be a fan of Sinema, but she’d beat DeWit like a red-headed stepchild.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well that didn't go well for McSally, Ducey has now disqualified her from appointment basically. Now she will HAVE to face Sinema in 2018 if she wants to fulfill her senate dreams. Or she will have to wait for a special election. She really should not have told her house colleagues those plans.

https://twitter.com/yvonnewingett/status/943314510386937856

Assuming he actually plans to follow through on this, major props to Ducey for showing a little bit of basic human decency.  Obviously still wouldn't vote for him, but it's still nice to see folks surprise you by doing the right thing every now and then.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really hate talking about this issue but it can't be ignored but if McCain does pass away before November and both seats are up. Who is the likely noms in those races and what are the odds of spilting ticket vs a dems picking up both

Splitting senators would be extremely unlikely. Hasn't happened since 1966 and there was far more ticket splitting back then.

That said, I fully expect both parties to have contingency plans ready for the McCain seat. It'd be stupid not to. I hope Dems don't settle on Stanton. He does seem really boring without a moving story

Nah, Stanton's a really strong candidate, much better than Sinema as a matter of fact.

Cactus lives in Phoenix. He probably knows more about both of them then you(and more about what Arizonans tend to like). I'm not a Phoenican, but I think Stanton's better for holding AZ-9 for forever.

I guess we'll find out whenever the seat opens up   If Stanton's as strong as I think he is, then he'll probably be nominated and win a hard-fought race.  If the Democrats run someone else or Stanton implodes, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.  Until then though, while I respect Cactus' opinion, I happen to disagree with him here.