AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[Pollster]

Some solid polling out of Arizona would be very nice right around now.

[Pollster]

I ran a GCS poll of Stanton v. Flake. It's GCS so 39.9% were unsure and 24.6% were unlikely/unregistered to vote. Of the respondents who picked a candidate, Stanton defeated Flake 18-17.4 (unweighted results).

Interestingly, Flake leads narrowly with men but Stanton has a huge lead with women. The survey was majority male (never the reality in elections), so I would imagine weighted results would show Stanton with a lead.

[Pollster]

Beginning to look like this seat could be more likely to flip than Nevada. As health care hysteria dies down Heller could recover with independent voters, but Flake just can not seem to catch a break here.

[Pollster]

Perhaps in a Connecticut for Lieberman situation Flake can win.

Never thought about this, but now that you've brought it up I wouldn't rule it out. I think the state's GOP is far too divided for either Flake or Ward to win in this situation but Flake sure seems to want to go down fighting with every last breath.

[Pollster]

I've put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Hoping to have data soon. I've adjusted the methodology from my previous GCS polls to be able to account for party ID in the final analysis as well. Will post results when I have them.

[Pollster]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

[Pollster]

This election could be a bloodbath for the AZ GOP, Ward and Ducey (who I understand is not popular) could depress GOP turnout immensely in an already unfavorable environment, the down-ticket effects in the State House and Senate (all seats up for reelection in both chambers) and the lower-level state offices could wreck the party's stature in the state for a generation.

[Pollster]

Wow. McSally is truly awful at posturing, to the point that she deserves to lose.

2018 really looks like it could wreck the AZ GOP for generations.

[Pollster]

Would be interesting if, in a dual Senate election, the Dems field both Sinema and Gallego. Both attract significantly different Democratic voters, and could feasibly pull each other across the finish line.

Garcia is also an underrated recruit for the governor's race, imo. Arizona could be 2018's Virginia 2017.