NV-Remington (R): Laxalt +9 over Sisolak

[heatcharger]

Link.

(R) Laxalt 46%
(D) Sisolak 37%

Right.

[MT Treasurer]

Obvious junk. Even if it were accurate, just ask Senator Heck what NV polls at this point in time mean.

Lean D.

[Gass3268]

Obvious junk. Even if it were accurate, just ask Senator Heck what NV polls at this point in time mean.

Lean D.

Yeah, I think Heck was up in the high single digits about a year and a half off.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Junk. This race is a Toss-Up, not R favored

[The Other Castro]

Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...

[MT Treasurer]

Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...

Their final poll (Blunt +3, Trump +14) in 2016 wasn't bad, they even underestimated Trump's margin.

[The Other Castro]

Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...

Their final poll (Blunt +3, Trump +14) in 2016 wasn't bad, they even underestimated Trump's margin.

And they could very well be right here and in MO in the end (with the potential for increased accuracy in MO given that history), but it is interesting that people can call this race Lean D or Toss-up and call MO Likely R when Sisolak trails here by more than McCaskill does behind any of the challengers in the other poll. Yes there are other factors at play besides polling (incumbency, region, PVI, etc.), but the difference in how people are treating these polling disparities is quite extreme.

[MT Treasurer]

Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...

Their final poll (Blunt +3, Trump +14) in 2016 wasn't bad, they even underestimated Trump's margin.

And they could very well be right here and in MO in the end (with the potential for increased accuracy in MO given that history), but it is interesting that people can call this race Lean D or Toss-up and call MO Likely R when Sisolak trails here by more than McCaskill does behind any of the challengers in the other poll. Yes there are other factors at play besides polling (incumbency, region, PVI, etc.), but the difference in how people are treating these polling disparities is quite extreme.

Isn't this basically a Laxalt internal, though? Anyway, I can only speak for myself, but I'm not putting too much stock into polling, which has become more and more unreliable anyway. 2018 should be a good year for NV Democrats if they can get out the vote again (and they probably will), but I guess one could also rate the gubernatorial race a Tossup instead of Lean D (though I think Laxalt is a bit overrated, honestly). It just reminded me of all the polls showing Heck in a strong position, and we all know how that race turned out. The lack of reliable and accurate polling data forces greater reliance on the fundamentals of the race and the lean of the state, which is why I think Laxalt (less so than Heller, though) and McCaskill are both underdogs, the latter much more so for several reasons. Obviously things can change, though.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...

Their final poll (Blunt +3, Trump +14) in 2016 wasn't bad, they even underestimated Trump's margin.

And they could very well be right here and in MO in the end (with the potential for increased accuracy in MO given that history), but it is interesting that people can call this race Lean D or Toss-up and call MO Likely R when Sisolak trails here by more than McCaskill does behind any of the challengers in the other poll. Yes there are other factors at play besides polling (incumbency, region, PVI, etc.), but the difference in how people are treating these polling disparities is quite extreme.

NV is a Lean Dem state, Missouri is basically Safely Republican. Therefore the Missouri poll, if anything, underestimates Rs, plus it is an extremely bad sign for an incumbent when they are already trailing in early polls, remember that Landrieu, Hagan, et al were up big in early polls, and they lost - so McCaskill is an even worse position. McCaskill has a slight chance due to incumbency and the possibility of an akin-like scenario, but it's like 20% at best.

[Pollster]

Kind of puts their MO polls into perspective...

They are a strongly GOP pollster but MO is Remington's home turf. They understand the dynamics of turnout in that state incredibly well. As MT Treasurer pointed out their 2016 MO polling was strong. Far more likely that this poll is off than their MO numbers.

[Xing]

Not buying it. This race is a Toss-Up at best for Republicans.

[_]

Most Likely off, keeping it at tossup.
If someone like PPP has a margin of Laxalt +6, then I'll consider moving it to lean R.

[TheSaint250]

Not gonna dismiss this as 100% trash, but there are some
Flaws with Remington and this poll. For example, the total number of people who answered either of the two is 83%, so obviously 17% is still undecided or to be won.

I'd say tossup

[Maxwell]

el o el - talk about name recognition advantage.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill has a slight chance due to incumbency and the possibility of an akin-like scenario, but it's like 20% at best.

Disagree with the bolded part. If anything, incumbency is going to hurt her (just like Blunt).