NM-02: Pearce running for governor

[smoltchanov]

Harry Teague was a conservative Anglo Democrat connected to oil interests. That said, he won 56/44, which is no joke of a margin. He also held his defeat to a reasonable margin.

But this isn't the sort of place where the backlash to Trump is happening in full force. Democrats can certainly take this one in a sufficiently strong year (I'd start it off as Likely R or so), but at that point they've probably gotten the House already.

+100. As i already said - i don't know now a single elected (to state Legislature or something similar) Democrat from Little Texas, which is considerable part of the district. Teague was from there and managed almost a draw in Lea county, where he is from, in 2008 (but not 2010). For comparison - Lea county voted something about 70-22 Trump last November. And Teague was a centrist with some conservative inclinations. IIRC - it was a "liberal" vote on Cap & Trade, which, essentially, doomed him in 2010. And now the question - how many such Democratic candidates exist in New Mexico now? Otherwise - a VERY big margins in other parts of this district are required. In the past most of this district was represented by Harold Runnels, who was very conservative Democrat (more so, then Richrd Shelby, for example). I doubt something similar still exist.

[Mr.Phips]

Harry Teague was a conservative Anglo Democrat connected to oil interests. That said, he won 56/44, which is no joke of a margin. He also held his defeat to a reasonable margin.

But this isn't the sort of place where the backlash to Trump is happening in full force. Democrats can certainly take this one in a sufficiently strong year (I'd start it off as Likely R or so), but at that point they've probably gotten the House already.

+100. As i already said - i don't know now a single elected (to state Legislature or something similar) Democrat from Little Texas, which is considerable part of the district. Teague was from there and managed almost a draw in Lea county, where he is from, in 2008 (but not 2010). For comparison - Lea county voted something about 70-22 Trump last November. And Teague was a centrist with some conservative inclinations. IIRC - it was a "liberal" vote on Cap & Trade, which, essentially, doomed him in 2010. And now the question - how many such Democratic candidates exist in New Mexico now? Otherwise - a VERY big margins in other parts of this district are required. In the past most of this district was represented by Harold Runnels, who was very conservative Democrat (more so, then Richrd Shelby, for example). I doubt something similar still exist.

Lea is not a huge county vote wise (around 12k).  A Dem needs to keep the Republican to around 65% there and win Dona Ana by nearly 2 to 1.

[smoltchanov]

Harry Teague was a conservative Anglo Democrat connected to oil interests. That said, he won 56/44, which is no joke of a margin. He also held his defeat to a reasonable margin.

But this isn't the sort of place where the backlash to Trump is happening in full force. Democrats can certainly take this one in a sufficiently strong year (I'd start it off as Likely R or so), but at that point they've probably gotten the House already.

+100. As i already said - i don't know now a single elected (to state Legislature or something similar) Democrat from Little Texas, which is considerable part of the district. Teague was from there and managed almost a draw in Lea county, where he is from, in 2008 (but not 2010). For comparison - Lea county voted something about 70-22 Trump last November. And Teague was a centrist with some conservative inclinations. IIRC - it was a "liberal" vote on Cap & Trade, which, essentially, doomed him in 2010. And now the question - how many such Democratic candidates exist in New Mexico now? Otherwise - a VERY big margins in other parts of this district are required. In the past most of this district was represented by Harold Runnels, who was very conservative Democrat (more so, then Richrd Shelby, for example). I doubt something similar still exist.

Lea is not a huge county vote wise (around 12k).  A Dem needs to keep the Republican to around 65% there and win Dona Ana by nearly 2 to 1.

Of course. But Lea is not the only county in Little Texas. That's why i said Democrats will need a very big margin in Dona Ana and similar counties to simply have a chance... And to get even 35% in Lea and similar counties you need a Democrat with at least some conservative streak...

[wesmoorenerd]

Couldn't find any other NM-02 thread, so I'm going to revive this one.

I've always found it interesting, looking on a map, that NM-02 (Southern New Mexico, including Las Cruces/Roswell) looks like a big (non-atlas) red district surrounded by big blue districts. Now that Steve Pearce is out, however, and the Democrats have a fantastic standard bearer in Xochitl Torres Small, it's looking like an increasingly interesting race. This district caught my attention the other day because, although it is an Atlas cardinal sin, the turnout in the primary was interesting. Despite being an R+6 district that went for Trump by over 10 points, Democrats had better turnout in the district than Republicans by about 2000 votes (yes, I know the Democrats had a competitive gubernatorial primary and Republicans didn't, but the Democratic primary was barely competitive). Worth noting a few things about this district: it's whiter than you'd expect at around 63%, and it had a Democratic representative between the Democratic wave of 2008 and the Republican wave of 2010 (Harry Teague).

So, thoughts? Torres Small really does look like a fantastic candidate that could energize the Democrats of the district, and the primary turnout differential was entirely unexpected. I'd call it Lean R for now, but easily an underrated Democratic prospect

[Politician]

Yes, the race is a Tossup.

[KingSweden]

Couldn't find any other NM-02 thread, so I'm going to revive this one.

I've always found it interesting, looking on a map, that NM-02 (Southern New Mexico, including Las Cruces/Roswell) looks like a big (non-atlas) red district surrounded by big blue districts. Now that Steve Pearce is out, however, and the Democrats have a fantastic standard bearer in Xochitl Torres Small, it's looking like an increasingly interesting race. This district caught my attention the other day because, although it is an Atlas cardinal sin, the turnout in the primary was interesting. Despite being an R+6 district that went for Trump by over 10 points, Democrats had better turnout in the district than Republicans by about 2000 votes (yes, I know the Democrats had a competitive gubernatorial primary and Republicans didn't, but the Democratic primary was barely competitive). Worth noting a few things about this district: it's whiter than you'd expect at around 63%, and it had a Democratic representative between the Democratic wave of 2008 and the Republican wave of 2010 (Harry Teague).

So, thoughts? Torres Small really does look like a fantastic candidate that could energize the Democrats of the district, and the primary turnout differential was entirely unexpected. I'd call it Lean R for now, but easily an underrated Democratic prospect

Lean R, closer to Likely because it is tough terrain. Sounds like the R’s fundraising here is mediocre and she’s super conservative, though, so there’s a chance for Small to be a wave baby who gets a one term rental or something.